Only eight countries have ever won the men’s World Cup. Seven of them will be competing at this summer’s tournament across North America. A further five have reached the final at least once without emerging as victors.
The stats suggest that ‘dark horses’ don’t usually exist at this level of international football. Sure, Greece shocked Europe when they won Euro 2004 and there have been plenty of smaller nations in South America and Africa who have been crowned continental champions, but it’s harder to replicate at the World Cup.
Nevertheless, with 48 teams fighting it out in Canada, Mexico and the United States for the next month, there’s a greater chance of some unfancied sides to sneak between the cracks for a shot at immortality.
Here are our picks for ‘dark horses’ to watch out for this summer.
Norway
We have to start with the relative minnows who are being spearheaded by a freakish goal-scoring sensation and the captain of the Premier League champions.
For the first time since 1998, Norway are at the World Cup and will fancy their chances of making up for lost time. In Erling Haaland, already his country’s all-time leading scorer at the age of 25, and skipper Martin Odegaard, they have among the best attacking duos in international football.
Surrounding their stars is an ensemble cast proven at the top level, including experienced Premier League players such as Kristoffer Ajer, Sander Berge and Oscar Bobb, while Atletico Madrid hitman Alexander Sorloth is an overqualified deputy to Haaland.
Norway breezed through the qualification phase with eight wins out of eight, which ultimately condemned four-time champions Italy to the play-offs, where they fell to Bosnia-Herzegovina. This is a serious team who won’t fear taking on tournament favourites France in the group stage, let alone Senegal or Iraq.
Norway are priced at $3.75 with TAB to win Group I.
Senegal
Speaking of Senegal, they themselves have a strong case as one of the nations most likely to cause an upset in North America.
They were recently stripped of their AFCON title from January following a surprise ruling that declared they had forfeited an infamous final against Morocco, and so the Lions of Teranga will have a chip on their shoulder this summer.
Much of the Senegal core that reached the last 16 back in 2022 is still active today, with the legendary Sadio Mane now being helped with additional breakout stars such as Everton’s Iliman Ndiaye and Bayern Munich loanee Nicolas Jackson. This squad knows how to play together and, perhaps more importantly, win together.
Senegal are priced at $8 with TAB to win Group I.
Ecuador
Of all the ‘dark horses’ on this list, the truest team to the definition definitely feels like Ecuador.
This is hardly a nation with a glittering World Cup history. They failed to qualify up until 2002, and since then have gone out at the group stage in three of their four appearances.
So what’s different about La Tri this time around? They have pedigree in their ranks and a fantastic recent track record.
A defensive core comprising of Paris Saint-Germain centre-back Willian Pacho, versatile Arsenal defender Piero Hincapie and Chelsea midfielder Moises Caicedo ensured Ecuador conceded a measly five goals in only 18 CONMEBOL qualifying matches. Five goals in 18 matches. Read that again and tell us that isn’t an obscene record.
As such, this isn’t a team expected to wow the world with attacking flair - they only scored 14 times in those 18 games - but they will prove a tough nut to crack against even the tournament’s most potent scorers. They have notably been grouped with Germany, as well as the Ivory Coast and Curacao, so their sturdiness will indeed be tested from the off.
Ecuador are priced at $7.50 with TAB to win Group E.
Uruguay
Sticking with the South American theme, this seems to be the last dance for renowned head coach Marcelo Bielsa, AKA, ‘El Loco’.
There’s barely a dull day with the veteran 70-year-old manager, whose Uruguay side appeared to be in disarray heading into 2026 off the back of a 5-1 loss to the United States. However, a credible 1-1 draw with England in March which included a much-improved performance suggested there’s still life in La Celeste yet.
Uruguay can boast the dual-threat of not only a pioneering tactician, but a squad full of talent, led by Real Madrid captain Federico Valverde. Other names such as Barcelona defender Ronald Araujo, Tottenham midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur and Manchester United role player Manuel Ugarte suit Bielsa’s high-intensity needs to a tee.
As long as the camp is happy, Uruguay will be a team to fear, and their third group-stage game with Spain, following bouts with Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde, will prove quite the test of how far this group has come under Bielsa.
Uruguay are priced at $5 with TAB to win Group H.
Austria
Austria’s return to relative competitiveness under head coach Ralf Rangnick has been fascinating. Like Bielsa, Rangnick was one of the first figures in football to preach the principles of the high press, and these have served him well as a national team boss.
There wasn’t much hype around Austria prior to their run to the last 16 at Euro 2024, where they fell to perennial ‘dark horses’ Turkey - who, spoiler, do not feature in this article - in one of the more breathless games of the entire tournament. That experience of tasting their own blood could serve them well here.
The likes of David Alaba, recently released from Real Madrid, and the country’s all-time leading scorer and appearance maker Marko Arnautovic may never get another shot at international glory. Alongside those elder statesmen are a couple of new recruits from under the noses of other countries, making pitches to secure Carney Chukwuemeka from England and Paul Wanner from Germany.
Sandwiched between a mammoth clash with reigning champions Argentina are battles with Jordan and Algeria. Don’t count Austria out.
Austria are priced at $5 with TAB to win Group J.
USA
If you’ve been following USMNT head coach Mauricio Pochettino’s press tour leading up to the World Cup on home soil, you may have noticed a consistent line of messaging.
“Why not us?” the former Chelsea and Tottenham manager has stressed as he looks to become the man who finally gets soccer in the States off the ground.
In terms of individual ability, this is probably the strongest the USMNT have ever been, and they have the advantage of being used to the hot summer conditions the tournament will be played in. The main question mark is in regards to their chemistry, with a weakened side fielded at last year’s CONCACAF Gold Cup and injuries disrupting much of Pochettino’s reign.
Still, the host nation tends to overperform at a World Cup rather than underperform - Russia in 2018 and South Korea in 2002 are recent examples to look at - and as Pochettino has stressed, there isn’t anything that should limit Americans’ dreams.
USA are priced at $2.50 with TAB to win Group D
*Odds correct as of 02/06/26
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