The first 52 games of the 2026 Division I NCAA Tournament are now in the books, and 68 teams have been whittled down to just 16. On Thursday and Friday, the Sweet 16 will take place, followed by the Elite Eight on Saturday and Sunday. Let's take a crack at predicting how everything will shake out and who will be advancing to the Final Four.
Sweet 16
*Author's note: the team whose name is underlined is our predicted winner*
East
#1 Duke vs. #5 St. John's
St. John's has the coaching edge in this matchup, but Duke is the better overall team. The biggest concern with the Red Storm is that it felt like they were desperately clinging to their halftime lead over Kansas. Despite being up by 14 points with under ten minutes to go in the Round of 32, the Johnnies still let the Jayhawks back into the game. That will be an issue against a Duke team that has looked unstoppable in the second half of its matchups. The Blue Devils are averaging 41 points per game in second halves and are statistically the best second-half team in the country. More importantly, Duke’s smothering defense will be a problem for the Red Storm, who were held to 36% shooting against the Jayhawks. Against a Duke squad that has held opponents to 35.8% from the field, St. John's will not be able to find the bottom of the basket enough times to beat the Blue Devils.
#2 UConn vs. #3 Michigan State
This will be an incredibly tough test in the paint for the Spartans, but they’ll be up for the task. Big man Carson Cooper already has 29 points and 15 rebounds in two games, while wing Coen Carr is averaging 19 points and seven rebounds. Carr has the athleticism to disrupt UConn's Alex Karaban, and Cooper can slow down Tarris Reed Jr. This thing will come down to how well the Huskies limit Jeremy Fears Jr., and that will be an issue for UConn. They only allowed opponents to record 10.8 assists per game during the season, but that number has jumped to 14 in their two tournament games. Neither Furman nor UCLA has anybody with the passing skills of Jeremy Fears Jr. He will once again be the catalyst for the Spartans, and Tom Izzo will have his guys prepared to go against a team led by a coach who has much less experience than him.
South
#2 Houston vs. #3 Illinois
This will be a fantastic game since these squads match up well in various ways. Illinois' offense vs. Houston's defense will be must-see TV. KenPom has the Fighting Illini ranked as the second-most efficient offense in the country, but the Cougars are fourth in the nation in defensive rating. When an immovable force meets an unstoppable object like that, I tend to look at the other side of the ball. In this case, it'll be Illinois' defense vs. Houston's offense. The Cougs have the tenth-ranked offense, while the Illini have the 24th-ranked defense. Neither team has been tested much thus far, but Houston gets the edge because of their tournament experience, with nine players from last year's Final Four squad returning to the team this season.
#4 Nebraska vs. #9 Iowa
Though meetings between these squads are usually reserved for the football field, the NCAA Tournament is taking center stage in this 135-year-old rivalry. The thing that the Cornhuskers do best is pass the ball, since they're 12th in the country in assists per game (18). They've basically averaged those numbers in two NCAA Tournament games (18.5 assists per game). At the same time, Iowa has been living at the free-throw line with 53 attempts in two games and over a quarter of their March Madness points coming at the charity stripe (27.1%). Since Nebraska is tied for the ninth fewest personal fouls per game in the country (14.3), the Cornhuskers won't allow the Hawkeyes to get to the line as much as they have the last two games. It also helps that the last time these squads met, Nebraska had an answer for Bennett Stiritz, holding him to just 11 points.
West
#1 Arizona vs. #4 Arkansas
The Arkansas Razorbacks have the most exciting player in the NCAA Tournament with freshman Darius Acuff Jr. He has averaged 29.8 points per game since the start of the SEC Tournament, and it shouldn't be surprising that Arkansas is 6-0 during that stretch. The problem for the Razorbacks is that when they have gone against elite defenses, they have usually failed to answer the call. Arkansas has faced five teams ranked in the top 15 by KenPom in terms of defensive rating, and it's 1-4 in those contests, with the only win coming against a familiar foe in Tennessee. Against the other four teams, the Razorbacks are 0-4 and average 74.8 points per game, which is 15.5 points fewer than their season average. Going against Arizona, which is the third-best defensive and fourth-best offensive team in the country, will be too much for the other members of the Razorbacks to handle.
#2 Purdue vs. #11 Texas
The Boilermakers are the most efficient offensive basketball team in the country, according to KenPom, and it shows. Purdue has shot a ridiculous 58.9% from the field through its first two tournament games. As a team, they're shooting 57.9% from beyond the arc. Texas's wins have been more impressive, and the Longhorns got here by holding their opponents to 25.9% from three-point range. In reality, though, Texas's defense hasn't gotten better. The Longhorns’ opponents are just shooting poorly from beyond the arc. After all, Texas is tied for 275th in the country in three-point defense, even after their impressive March Madness games (opponents are hitting 35.2% of their three-pointers). Against an experienced Purdue squad that has been lights out from beyond the arc, Texas gets knocked out of the NCAA Tournament.
Midwest
#1 Michigan vs. #4 Alabama
The Wolverines are an absolute buzzsaw, as proven by the fact that they are the top-ranked team on KenPom. I had two predictions for them when it came to the NCAA Tournament: either they were going to get bounced in the Sweet 16 by St. Louis, or they were going to win the National Championship. After beating the Billikens, there's only one outcome remaining for Michigan. Alabama obviously has a great offense. In fact, the Crimson Tide has the nation's top-ranked scoring offense (91.6 points per game). Their problem is on defense, where they rank 60th in the country in defensive rating. If the Wolverines can put up 95 points on St. Louis, which was 39th in the country in defensive rating, then they should have no problem scoring effectively against an Alabama squad that is giving up 93.3 points per game this season to opponents ranked in the top 25.
#2 Iowa State vs. #6 Tennessee
It doesn't seem to matter who the opponent has been for the Volunteers the last few years, because they have reached the Elite Eight in back-to-back seasons. They have taken the exact same path to reach the Elite Eight both years by first beating a 15-seed, then a seven-seed, and finally a three-seed before losing to a one-seed. This time around, the Vols are a six-seed and going up against a two-seed in the Cyclones, who kicked the crap out of Kentucky in the Round of 32 despite missing star forward Joshua Jefferson. Jefferson is a point of concern in this game. Either he won't play, and Iowa State will be without its second-best scorer and leading rebounder; or, Jefferson will play, but won’t be as effective as he usually is due to the ankle injury. It's a lose-lose situation. Another problem is how the Cyclones have fared against elite guards. In their last four losses, the other team's leading scorer has been a guard, and those guys have averaged 22.5 points per game. Considering Tennessee's best player is starting guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie, who has averaged 25 points per game in the tournament, this feels like a bad matchup for Iowa State.
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Elite Eight
East
#1 Duke vs. #3 Michigan State
The buck stops here with the Blue Devils. This is an undeniably talented group, but they have gotten off to slow starts so far in the NCAA Tournament, averaging just 35 points in the first half of their games. They come alive in the second half, but that won't be good enough against an incredibly well-coached team like Michigan State. Siena was the 169th-best team in the first-half rankings, while TCU was tied for 67th in that category. Meanwhile, the Spartans are ranked 22nd in the country in terms of first-half performances. And though they're 2-2 in their last four contests, they’re still averaging 38.8 points in the first half of those games. I also worry that Duke's injuries will catch up to them in this game. Against Siena and TCU, you can still win without players who are third (Caleb Foster) and sixth (Patrick Ngongba II) on your team in minutes per game. That won't be the case in the Elite Eight against a battle-tested Spartans team. Michigan State will get out to a comfortable first-half lead and hold onto it for a Final Four berth.
South
#2 Houston vs. #4 Nebraska
The Cornhuskers have only lost six games this season, and in each one of those losses, Nebraska lost the rebounding battle. The good news for the Cornhuskers is that Houston is not an impressive rebounding team (tied for 86th in the country, 37.1 rebounds per game). On paper, Nebraska should win this thing. Unfortunately for them, the game is played on a basketball court and not paper. There are two main reasons why the Cougars will advance to the Final Four. First, they have the experience advantage. Nine players from last year's team that reached the Final Four are on the squad this season. Meanwhile, Nebraska had never even won a Division I NCAA Tournament game until this year. Knowing how to navigate the second weekend of March Madness will give Houston an edge over Nebraska. Also, this game will be played IN Houston. Hell, the University of Houston campus is a seven-minute drive from where this game is taking place. The Cougars can walk to the game if they want to. Their Final Four experience and obvious homecourt advantage will lift Houston over Nebraska.
West
#1 Arizona vs. #2 Purdue
From an analytics standpoint, this has the potential to be the most evenly-matched game of the week. Arizona is second in the KenPom rankings, while Purdue is eighth. The Boilermakers are ranked first in offensive efficiency, but the Wildcats are third in defensive rating. There are two issues, though, for Purdue. The first problem is that they will NOT be able to maintain this level of offensive effectiveness. Teams never shoot near 60% from the field and from beyond the arc over the course of the entire tournament. It's much more likely that the Boilermakers will regress to their normal efficiency rates rather than maintain these insane shooting numbers. Second, and more importantly, Purdue is unreliable defensively, while Arizona is incredibly efficient on offense. The Boilermakers are 33rd in the country in defensive rating, but the Wildcats are fourth in offensive rating. Purdue's defense will not be able to limit the effectiveness of Arizona's offense, and the Boilermakers will probably take a step back offensively.
Midwest
#1 Michigan vs. #6 Tennessee
In my round of 32 predictions, I actually picked St. Louis to upset Michigan because the Billikens looked like a matchup nightmare for the Wolverines. Not only was I wrong in my prediction, but Michigan made me look flat-out stupid after they crushed St. Louis by 23 points. The Wolverines are my new favorites to win the national championship. The Volunteers have won their two tournament games with stout defense by holding their opponents to 37.4% from the field. Tennessee will not be that good against a Michigan team that is fourth in the country in field goal percentage (51.1%). I mean, the Wolverines have made 61.2% of their field goals so far in the NCAA Tournament. Even if the Vols' defense plays extremely well and forces Michigan's field goal percentage to fall by 15%, they would still be shooting 46.2% from the field! Out of Tennessee's 11 losses, its best defensive performance came against Vanderbilt, when they held the Commodores to 40% from the field. I don't have faith in the Volunteers to hold the Wolverines below 45% shooting.
