Today marks the beginning of the 2026 Division I NCAA Tournament. Over the next three weeks, 64 teams will be whittled down to just one as we crown a college basketball national champion. Now that the bracket is locked in, we can run down the list and provide predictions about how the first two rounds of the tourney might play out. Without further ado, here are the teams that will make it through the first four days of action and advance to the Sweet 16.
Round of 64
*Author's note: the team whose name is bolded is our predicted winner*
East
#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#5 St. John's vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#6 Louisville vs. #11 USF
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
There will be almost no surprises or upsets in the Round of 64 for the East Region. Duke, UConn, Michigan State, and Kansas all have the talent needed to dominate the lower seeds in this round. Northern Iowa is a defensive juggernaut that could give St. John's fits, but the Red Storm are battle-tested and should prevail over the Panthers. Also, UCLA should be able to take care of business against a UCF squad that is 4-7 in its last 11 games.
Our biggest surprise in the East will be #11 USF taking down #6 Louisville. The Bulls come into the tournament tied for eighth in scoring (87.7 points per game). Going against a Cardinals defense that is tied for 129th in scoring (72.2 points per game allowed) is a matchup that favors USF's guard-heavy offensive attack. The Cardinals will also miss star freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr., who is out for the game with a back injury.
Our only other upset (if you can even call it that) is #9 TCU beating #8 Ohio State. The Horned Frogs are 22nd in the nation in KenPom defensive rating. They’ll fluster a Buckeyes offense that relies on efficient shot selections to win games. Plus, TCU has been hot lately with wins in nine of its last 11 matchups, while the Buckeyes are an uninspiring 7-5 since the beginning of February.
South
#1 Florida vs. #16 Prairie View A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#6 UNC vs. #11 VCU
#7 Saint Mary's vs. #10 Texas A&M
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
The top of the South will be all chalk. Florida is the best rebounding team in the country and should have no problem taking care of Prairie View A&M. Meanwhile, Houston has a smothering defense that will be able to contain Idaho. Lastly, Penn only reached the tournament because TJ Pwoer exploded for 44 points in the Ivy League Championship Game. He won't be able to replicate that performance against a team like Illinois.
Vanderbilt has the seventh-best offense in the nation according to KenPom, which will overwhelm a McNeese squad that is 2-4 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. Saint Mary's will beat Texas because the Gaels are tied for ninth in the nation in three-point shooting (38.9%), but the Aggies are bad at defending the three (tied for 63rd in three-point efficiency allowed, 31.7%), so the Gaels should emerge victorious.
There will be two pretty huge upsets in this region with Troy beating Nebraska and VCU taking down UNC. Nebraska has all the pressure on them to win their first Division I NCAA Tournament game in program history, which will cause them to play with stiffness and rigidity. Considering Troy will play freely with no expectations on them, it sets up a perfect scenario for the Trojans to defeat the Cornhuskers. UNC is playing without its leading scorer, Caleb Wilson, which puts them in a compromising position. It’s also worrisome that they’re just 5-4 in their last nine games and are limping into the tournament after two straight losses. That's why I like VCU in this matchup; they’re 16-1 in their last 17 games.
West
#1 Arizona vs. #16 Long Island
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens (N.C.)
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai'i
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#6 BYU vs. #11 Texas
#7 Miami (F.L.) vs. #10 Missouri
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
There will be no major upsets in the West region. Arizona, Purdue, and Gonzaga should all be able to take care of their opponents. I also like Miami over Missouri because the Tigers only have one win in their last nine March Madness games, while the Hurricanes are just three years removed from a Final Four run.
A lot of people are picking High Point over Wisconsin and/or Hawai'i to beat Arkansas, but I don't see those things happening. Wisconsin is ranked 11th in the country in KenPom offensive rating, so they should have no problem putting up a lot of points on a High Point squad that doesn't even rank in the top 100 in KenPom defensive rating. Hawai'i has a better shot than High Point at an upset, but I still have my doubts. The Rainbow Warriors don't have a single defender who can limit the production of Arkansas' Darius Acuff Jr. After all, if the freshman star can average 29.8 points per game in the SEC Tournament, what hope does Hawai'i have of stopping him?
The game that most interests me is the matchup between BYU and Texas. I’m always wary of teams that rely on just one player to generate most of their offense, and that's the case for BYU. Freshman AJ Dybantsa leads the nation in scoring (25.3 points per game), and the Cougars are known for their offense, averaging 83.9 points per game. If Dybantsa has an off day, BYU's scoring could go from almost 84 points down to like 74. However, Dybantsa should still have a good game because the Longhorns are tied for 251st in the nation in defense (76.5 points per game allowed), so Texas will probably lose a close contest.
Midwest
#1 Michigan vs. #16 Howard
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#6 Tennessee vs. #11 Miami (Ohio)
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#8 Georgia vs. #9 St. Louis
The top of the Midwest bracket will go how everybody expects it to. Michigan should kill Howard, and Iowa State will handle business against Tennessee State. Also, Virginia is 13th in KenPom net rating while Wright State ranks 140th, so the Cavs clearly have a huge advantage over the Raiders.
The four vs. 13 matchup in this region is interesting, but Alabama will probably win because they're the number-one scoring team in the country (91.7 points per game). Though Hoftsra has a good defense (tied for 18th in the nation, 66.1 points per game allowed), the Pride have been much worse against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams, allowing 75.2 points per game in five matchups, which would be ranked 220th in the country. The Crimson Tide offense will have no problems with Hofstra.
I’m more nervous about Texas Tech than I am about Alabama. The Red Raiders are on a three-game losing streak and are just 3-3 since their best scorer, JT Toppin, was ruled out for the season with an injury. Still, Texas Tech was able to beat Iowa State on the road when the Cyclones were ranked fourth in the country. On a natural site, the Red Raiders should have an easier time against Akron, which has never won a Division I NCAA Tournament game.
The bottom of this region is full of upsets. Miami of Ohio proved that it belongs in the tournament with a ten-point win over SMU. The RedHawks' second-ranked offense (91 points per game) will lead them to a close victory over a Tennessee team that was 1-1 against Alabama, which is the only team in the country that has a better offense than Miami. Also, Santa Clara and its 38th-ranked scoring offense (82.9 points per game) will surprise a Kentucky squad that has struggled down the stretch, going 4-6 in its last ten games. Finally, St. Louis feels like a team that could shock the world and go on an extended run. The Billikens are tenth in the nation in scoring (87.2 points per game) while holding opponents to the lowest field goal percentage in the country (37.9%). This group could go very far this year.
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Round of 32
East
#1 Duke vs. #9 TCU
#2 UConn vs. #7 UCLA
#3 Michigan State vs. #11 USF
#4 Kansas vs. #5 St. John's
They might be missing junior guard Caleb Foster and sophomore center Patrick Ngongba II, but Duke still has a top-three player in the country in freshman forward Cameron Boozer (ninth in scoring, 22.5 points per game), and the Blue Devils’ second-best scorer, Isaiah Evans (14.9 points per game), will be available. Plus, TCU's 113th-ranked offense (78.3 points per game) will not do well against the Blue Devils' third-ranked defense (63.1 points per game allowed).
UConn's height will be a problem for UCLA. Forward Alex Karaban should overwhelm UCLA in the paint while the Bruins struggle to defend UConn's three seven-footers (Tarris Reed Jr., Rezon Elezaj, and Eric Reibe). Then again, if UCLA limits Karaban, that will open up the floor more for the Huskies' other big men. It's a lose-lose situation for the Bruins.
This is a terrible matchup for the Bulls from an analytics standpoint. Michigan State is 24th in the offensive rankings while South Florida is 41st in the defensive rankings. On the other side of the ball, the Spartans are ranked 13th in defensive rating, but the Bulls are 62nd in offensive rating. Michigan State will beat the Bulls, maybe even by double-digits.
As has often been the case with the Johnnies under Rick Pitino, the Red Storm's offensive deficiencies will be their downfall. St. John's is ranked 44th in the country in offensive rating, and Kansas is tenth in defensive rating. Add in the fact that the Jayhawks defense is tied for the fourth-lowest field goal percentage allowed in the country (38.8%), and the Red Storm will not be able to make enough baskets to beat Kansas.
South
#1 Florida vs. #9 Iowa
#2 Houston vs. #7 St. Mary's
#3 Illinois vs. #11 VCU
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #13 Troy
Florida is going to kill Iowa on the boards. The Gators are the best rebounding team in the country (45.4 per game). Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are the eighth-worst rebounding team in the entire nation (29.4 per game). Florida will ride those second-chance opportunities to a convincing victory.
The game between Houston and Saint Mary's will be close. The Gaels are a good three-point shooting team, and the Cougars are middle of the road at defending the arc (32.1% allowed, tied for 70th in the country). Though the Cougars are known for their defense (62.9 points per game allowed), so is Saint Mary's (64.6 points per game allowed). In the end, though, the Gaels struggled against the best teams in the country, with only one win against five Quad 1 opponents, so Houston will advance to the Sweet 16.
VCU might have pulled off the first-round upset, but the buck stops there. Illinois is the second-best team in the country in terms of offensive rating. VCU ranks 41st in the tournament in defensive rating. With the 20th-ranked scoring offense in the country (84.4 points per game) going against a Rams defense that is tied for 112th in the nation in points allowed per game (71.5), the Fighting Illini should end up moving on.
Vanderbilt will dominate Troy. The Trojans have the ninth-worst KenPom defensive rating in the tournament, while the Commodores rank seventh in the nation in KenPom offensive rating. Troy has proven that it can score with the best of them, but their defense will not be able to contain Vanderbilt's 13th-ranked scoring offense (86.4 points per game).
West
#1 Arizona vs. #9 Utah State
#2 Purdue vs. #7 Miami (F.L.)
#3 Gonzaga vs. #6 BYU
#4 Arkansas vs. #5 Wisconsin
I actually have Arizona reaching the National Championship Game. They're second in KenPom net rating, sixth in offensive rating, and third in defensive rating. Utah State is a solid team that will make the Wildcats sweat, but Arizona will squeak by the Aggies.
Purdue is the best offensive team in the country, according to KenPom, making this a terrible matchup for the Hurricanes, who are tied for 105th in the NCAA when it comes to scoring defense (71.2 points per game allowed). There will be a lot of points in this one since Purdue doesn't have a great defensive rating, but the Boilermakers are one of the best passing teams in the country (third in assists per game, 19.9), and the Canes struggle in that area defensively (tied for 220th in assists per game allowed, 13.9). Therefore, Purdue gets the nod to advance to the Sweet 16.
As I said previously, BYU is too reliant on AJ Dybantsa for me to trust them in this tournament. They might be able to get by Texas, but the Cougars won't do nearly as well against a Gonzaga squad that has the ninth-best defensive rating in the country. The Bulldogs, who are 11th in the nation in opponents' field goal percentage (39.5%) and tied for 16th in scoring defense (66 points per game allowed), will take care of BYU.
I'm simply going by gut feeling for the Arkansas-Wisconsin game. Everybody is picking the Badgers to go on a run after their impressive Big Ten Tournament performance, and they almost always fail to live up to those expectations. When nobody expects them to do anything is when they do well. Also, Wisconsin is 36th in defensive rating in this year's tournament, while Arkansas is fifth in the nation in offensive rating. Eventually, the Badgers will cool down from the three-point line, and that will be the cause of their downfall.
Midwest
#1 Michigan vs. #9 St. Louis
#2 Iowa State vs. #10 Santa Clara
#3 Virginia vs. #11 Miami (OH)
#4 Alabama vs. #5 Texas Tech
Our biggest upset of the tournament will come when St. Louis defeats Michigan in the Round of 32. Everything the Wolverines do well, the Billikens do better. Michigan is 11th in points per game (86.8), but St. Louis is tenth (87.2). The Wolverines have the eighth-best field goal percentage in the nation (50.5%), while the Billikens are sixth (50.9%). Both teams average the same number of possessions per game, too (73.4). If Michigan tries to force St. Louis to match the Wolverines’ style of basketball, then the Billikens will pull off the upset.
Santa Clara will give Iowa State fits, but the Cyclones should pull off the win. The Broncos rank 44th in the tournament in terms of defensive rating, which will allow the Cyclones' 20th-ranked offense to find success. And while Santa Clara has a good offensive rating, Iowa State has the fourth-best defensive rating in the entire country.
A team seeded tenth or higher has reached the Sweet 16 in each of the last 17 NCAA Tournaments. This year, that squad will be Miami of Ohio. Now that they have won two tournament games, all the doubt surrounding this team has gone out the window. The RedHawks have the second-best offense in the country, while the Cavaliers are tied for 43rd in the nation in points allowed per game (68.4). Miami's miracle run continues through the weekend.
Finally, Alabama defeats Texas Tech to advance to the Sweet 16. The Red Raiders are injured, as we previously mentioned, and have been in a rut to close out the season. Even if they defeat the Akron Zips, they don't have the scoring capabilities to keep up with the Crimson Tide without JT Toppin.
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