World Cup Underdog Betting Guide for South African Bettors

Reading and Calculating Underdog Odds at the World Cup

In every World Cup match, it’s easy to tell apart the underdog from the favourite. This is because the underdog usually has higher World Cup decimal odds than the favourite at SA-licensed sportsbooks. Here’s an example;

In a World Cup match between Brazil and Cameroon, where Brazil has decimal odds of 1.80 while Cameroon has decimal odds of 7.50, Cameroon is the underdog. So, if you’re looking for World Cup upset betting, you should back Cameroon.

To calculate the underdog’s potential return, you need to multiply your stake by Cameroon’s decimal odds (stake × decimal odds = total return). For example, if you decide to wager R100 on Cameroon, your potential return will be;

R100 x 7.50 = R750 (total return).

To calculate potential profits, you need to subtract your initial stake from the total return (profits = total return – initial stake). Which is;

R750 – R100 = R650.

As we mentioned, the market and bookmakers assess underdogs as less likely to win a specific World Cup match. You can calculate and assess the bookmaker’s implied probability of Cameroon winning using the formula: (1 ÷ decimal odds) × 100. That is;

(1 ÷ 7.50) x 100 = 13.333%.

So, based on the bookmaker, Cameroon has a roughly 13% chance of winning the match.

To determine whether World Cup long odds betting in South Africa is worth it, you should do your own thorough assessment of the actual probability of the underdog winning. If you find that the team has a realistic chance of causing an upset, you should consider betting on it.

Remember, however, that the long odds on the underdog don’t guarantee World Cup underdog betting in South Africa an effective betting strategy. As we’ve illustrated in the example above, even though Cameroon’s long odds of 7.50 can give you a potential return of R750 on a R100 bet, the team has an 87 (100-13% implied probability) chance of losing, which you shouldn't ignore when placing your bet.

What Makes the World Cup Unpredictable?

Unlike domestic leagues, which can stretch for months, the World Cup has a fast-paced format, and only one or two games separate a team’s progress from elimination. There’s no second chance to improve on mistakes, and one poor performance and the team exits the tournament. This compressed format not only makes World Cup upsets more prevalent, but inevitable.

Another reason upsets are common in the World Cup is that there’s less time before matches for teams to prepare and to absorb mistakes. This is unlike in domestic football leagues, where teams can prepare for a match for weeks or even months before kick-off. Coaches for World Cup teams also have limited time for analysing matches, which neutralises the tactical advantage of stronger teams.

World Cup knockout matches also create a kind of pressure that makes most teams struggle, knowing that a single mistake can have them eliminated. This pressure affects both stronger teams and underdogs equally, which increases the likelihood of World Cup upsets. The group stage can also create more upsets, particularly if the underdogs are well-organised and have a strong defence.

Markets and bookmakers price African and Asian teams in the World Cup as underdogs. However, most of these teams are competitive and can even advance to the highest levels of the tournament, winning matches against prominent teams along the way. For example, in the 2022 World Cup, Morocco entered the tournament as an underdog, but it later advanced to the semi-finals, defeating stronger teams like Spain and Portugal. This indicates that many underdogs with good form and squad depth can produce notable results and cause upsets. See our guide to World Cup betting trends for how African nations are typically backed by South African bettors.

Where to Find Underdog Bets at the World Cup

Here are the common World Cup markets where you can bet on the underdog.

Match Result

This is the most bet-on World Cup underdog market, and you normally bet on the underdog to win a specific match. In this market, the underdog has longer odds, while the favourite has shorter odds. This shows the underdog has higher potential return but also high risk. Besides backing the underdog to win, you can also bet on a draw, which is a common outcome, particularly on World Cup group stage matches where most teams don't simply play to win but to qualify for the knockout stage.

To Qualify / Group Stage Progression

This is another popular market for betting on World Cup underdogs. Here, you normally bet on the underdog to finish in the top two of its group and advance to the knockout phase. For the underdog to qualify, it needs to accumulate enough points across the three round-robin matches, where it plays against the other three teams in its group.

Outright Tournament Winner

Here you bet on the underdog to win the entire tournament. The Outright Tournament Winner market has the longest odds, meaning it has one of the highest payout potentials. Even with its high return, it’s also one of the hardest markets to win, and only a genuine dark horse with good form and squad depth has any realistic chance of winning. Thus, you should always bet on this market with extra caution.

First Goal / Both Teams to Score

You can also bet on other World Cup underdog markets that don’t require the underdog to win. For instance, you can place a ‘First Goal’ bet where you predict the underdog will score first. You can also bet on the Both Teams To Score market, where you predict both the underdog and the favourite will score at least one goal during a specific match. Both First Goal and Both Teams to Score underdog markets are ideal when you assess the underdog to have good form and squad depth but has a lower chance of winning against the favourite in a specific match. If you want to try an underdog bet without risking your own money first, see our round-up of World Cup free bets and offers.

Betting on African Nations as World Cup Underdogs

Historically, African teams have entered World Cup tournaments as underdogs. But some have even advanced to higher World Cup levels, causing upsets by winning matches against stronger teams.

For instance, in the 2022 World Cup, Morocco achieved a remarkable run by being the first African nation to reach the semi-finals. The team reached this position by qualifying to the knockout stage and then securing a 1-0 win against Portugal, which was a favourite. The team also later caused an upset by winning the quarter-final match against Spain, which was also a stronger team.

So, as you can see, African teams can genuinely compete at the highest level of the World Cup tournament as underdogs. And many South African bettors tend to back African teams that have qualified for the CAF. This creates a demand for African team markets.  But that doesn’t mean African teams are good or bad World Cup bets. It simply means that you should assess the local sentiment for a particular team as it can influence the team’s probability of winning specific matches.

For the 2026 World Cup, the South African team has proved once again that African teams are becoming strong contenders in the World Cup. Bafana Bafana qualified for the World Cup knockout stage for the first time in the team’s history. See our full look at South Africa's World Cup history for how Bafana Bafana have performed at past tournaments

Understanding the Risk of Underdog Betting

When backing outsiders in the World Cup as an SA bettor, you should be aware that the long odds on the teams exist because the underdogs have extremely low chances of winning. For example, your R100 stake on 5.00 World Cup underdog decimal odds may give you a potential return of R500, but the team’s probability of winning is only 20%. You can check out how to calculate your potential return and implied probability in the ‘Reading and Calculating Underdog Odds at the World Cup’ section above.

You should also bet on the underdog with the money you’re comfortable losing, and don’t increase your stake just because you can get an even higher potential return. Instead, set a tournament budget and stick to your bet limits. In addition, don’t chase losses by placing multiple underdog bets with the intention of recovering lost stake. Every bet in the World Cup is independent and is not influenced by previous outcomes. For more on managing your budget across the tournament, see our guide to World Cup betting strategies.

If you notice betting on underdogs is no longer fun, or you’re unable to stop yourself from betting, you should utilise responsible gambling tools, such as self-exclusion, available on the SA-licensed sportsbook you’re using. You can also contact ResponsibleGambling.co.za or the National Responsible Gambling Programme (NRGP) for free counselling and support.