Fixed Betting Odds Explained: A South African World Cup Guide

How to Read World Cup Betting Odds in South Africa

Learning to read fixed odds in World Cup betting in South Africa is easy, even if you’re new to World Cup betting. Most South African licensed sportsbooks display fixed odds in the decimal format, which is common with SA bettors. Let’s show you how you can read odds on your bets.

Decimal Odds

Typically, decimal fixed odds state the total potential return in a R1 wager. For example, you can find a Match Result market with odds of 3.00 for Team A to win the match. What this means is that, if you place the Match Result wager of R100 for Team A to win, you will get R300 as total potential return if the team actually wins. Your profit will be R200. 

The simplified formulas to use are as follows;

Your Stake × Decimal Odds = Total Return. Profit = Total Return minus Stake

So, using the example above, we have;

R100 x 3.00 odds = R300. To calculate the profit, you subtract R300 from the R100 initial stake, resulting in a potential profit of R200.

One key thing to note about World Cup fixed odds at SA bookmakers is that any odds below 2.00 returns less profit than your stake. For instance, if you wager R100 on a World Cup betting market with odds of 1.50, you will get R150 (R100 x 1.50) as total returns. Your profits will then be R50 (R150 – R100), which is less than the amount you wagered.

Similarly, any odds above 2.00 return more in profits than your initial wager, just like in our original example with 3.00 odds above.

Favourites and Underdogs

If you’re looking to bet on World Cup favourites, keep in mind that betting sites in South Africa often assign these teams lower (short-priced) odds. This is because they consider the outcomes for these teams more likely to happen. Underdogs, on the other hand, have higher odds (longer odds) since bookmakers overlook them and consider outcomes less likely to happen in their favour.

For example, in a World Cup group stage match between France and Morocco, France is considered a favourite and will likely have lower odds, such as 2,20. And since Morocco is an underdog in this match, it’ll have higher odds, such as 6.00.

Fractional Odds

Besides the decimal odds format, many World Cup betting apps and sites in South Africa allow you to switch odds format to the fractional format, or any other format of your choice. An example of fractional odds is 5/1 for a particular team to win a match. This means, if you wager R1 at odds of 5/1, you get R5 as profit, plus your stake.

Why Are They Called Fixed Odds?

As mentioned, the fixed odds format is the standard format for World Cup match betting and outright markets at South African betting sites and apps. This format makes it easy for SA licensed bookmakers to manage bankrolls and balance risks, since almost all World Cup matches are high-profile fixtures attracting hundreds of thousands, sometimes millions, of bettors.

If you’re wondering how do fixed odds work at South African betting sites, we’ll explain it in detail. Typically, the term ‘fixed’ means that bet odds are locked in at the time you confirm your wager. It also means that the bookmaker can’t change or alter the odds, and you know exactly what you’ll win from the wager if your bet wins.

For example, if you place a bet at odds of 3.50 and then the odds shorten to 2.80, your return will be based on the 3.50 original price. The same is true if you place a wager at odds of 3.00 for a team to win a World Cup match, but the odds lengthen to 6.00 at the end of the match.

Therefore, fixed odds betting differs from other forms of betting, such as spread betting, tote betting, or pool betting, where the total return on your bet is often influenced by how others are betting, as well as the total money wagered by other bettors. With World Cup fixed odds betting in South Africa, you’re certain of your potential return.

Fixed Odds Across World Cup Betting Markets

There are many types of fixed odds World Cup bets you can wager on at South African betting sites. Here are the most popular fixed odds bets.

Match Result (1X2)

This is the simplest fixed odds bet type on the World Cup tournament, and you normally place a wager predicting which team will win a particular match. You can choose between a Home Win, Draw, or Away Win, and the odds for each outcome are usually set before the tournament even begins and lock in once you confirm your bet.

Over/Under Goals (Total Goals)

Instead of choosing the team that you think will win, you can use Over/Under fixed odds to predict whether the total goals scored during the match will go ‘Over’ or ‘Under’ a set number. Over/Under 2.5 is the most popular fixed odds option in this type of bet.

Tournament Outright Winner

In this fixed odds bet, you wager on a team to win the final match of the World Cup tournament. The odds for this bet are set after the market opens and locked in for your bet after you confirm the wager. Even if the prices on the bet later shorten or lengthen as the tournament progresses through the group stage, knockout, round of 16, quarter-finals, and semi-finals, your bet will still be paid with the odds at the time you confirmed it.

Golden Boot / Top Goalscorer

These are fixed odds where you predict which player will score the most goals during the World Cup tournament.

Both Teams to Score

Just as the name suggests, these fixed odds allow you to predict whether both teams in a particular match will score at least one goal or not. The fixed odds type offers a binary market; you can choose either ‘Yes’ or ‘No,’ with a fixed potential return.

How Do Bookmakers Set World Cup Odds?

If you are wondering why odds on betting sites and apps, including World Cup fixed odds, are the way they are, and why they change from time to time, 

Sportsbooks run multiple statistical models to determine the odds of a particular outcome. First, they use algorithms and machine learning to analyse and compare the teams’ historical data, including team strength, player performance and availability, and schedule factors to determine the probability of an outcome occurring. They then translate that probability into odds.

Once they get the odds, sportsbooks then include a built-in margin to ensure they make a profit over time regardless of the outcomes. So, instead of offering “fair” odds that reflect true probability of an event, they use the margin, also known as ‘vig’ or ‘overround’, to slightly adjust the odds to ensure that the probability of all outcomes add up to over 100%.

South African licensed bookmakers always set their odds competitively. That means they adjust the odds based on the prices on other sportsbooks. You may also notice that World Cup odds tend to change from time to time even before the match begins. This is because sportsbooks adjust the prices to reflect market conditions such as team news and injuries, betting volume, and public perception. But once you place a bet on fixed odds, the price on your bet doesn’t change, even if the market shortens or lengthens.

Fixed Odds Betting Glossary

• Fixed odds: These are odds locked at the time you confirm your bet, such that they are the odds the sportsbook will pay your bet with regardless of whether the odds at the end of the match lower or go higher.

• Decimal odds: These are betting odds displayed in the decimal format, such as Over/Under 2.50.

• Fractional odds: These are fixed betting odds that are displayed in the fractional format, such as 5/1 for Team A to win.

• Stake: This is the amount you wager on a bet.

• Return/payout: This is the amount a bet potentially returns if the prediction wins, and it includes your stake plus profits.

• Overround/margin: This is the bookmaker’s built-in profit margin on odds that makes sure it gets a profit in the long run no matter, irrespective of the bet outcome.

• Favourite/underdog: The favourite is the team that the bookmaker considers the most likely to win a match, while an underdog is the team the sportsbook expects to lose.

• Parimutuel betting: This is a pool betting system where your potential payouts and returns are influenced and determined by the amount of money staked on each potential outcome by other bettors, rather than having fixed prices like in fixed odds betting.

Betting on the World Cup Responsibly in South Africa

When betting on the World Cup in South Africa with fixed odds, you should not only be concerned with the amount you can win but also the amount you can lose if your bet fails. So, treat every wager as entertainment and stake the amount you can afford to risk per bet. And in case you lose, don’t chase losses by staking more on your next bet. Instead, stick to your budget and wager limits.

To stay in control of your World Cup betting in South Africa, you should also use responsible betting tools available at the SA sportsbook you’re using. Helpful tools include deposit limits, bet limits, cooling-off periods, self-assessment, reality checks, time-outs, and self-exclusion. You should also take advantage of free support and counselling at responsible gambling organisations like ResponsibleGambling.co.za and the National Responsible Gambling Programme (NRGP), particularly if you’re having issues with betting.