We have divisional rivals going head-to-head on Thursday Night Football when the 4-9 Atlanta Falcons go south to take on the 7-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs need a win if they want to hold onto possession of first place in the NFC South with the Carolina Panthers breathing down their necks. Though the Falcons have had a disappointing season, they can play spoiler tonight and hurt Tampa's chances of making the playoffs.

Last weekend, the Buccaneers suffered one of the most shocking losses of the season when they were defeated by the New Orleans Saints at home, 24-20. That was Tampa's first loss to New Orleans since New Year's Eve 2023.

“It's a division game. They always play us tough. I said that all week. We don't look at records. We play division games. They know us, and we know them,” said Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles during the team’s Week 14 postgame press conference. “We had plenty of chances to make plays coaching-wise, offensively, defensively, and special teams... And we had situations come up where we didn't make any plays. We could have made better calls. There's a myriad of things that could have happened that we lost this ball game. Doesn't matter whether the team was 12-0 or 0-12. It's the NFL. You’ve got to show up and play and make plays, or the other team's going to beat you.”

The story of the game was third- and fourth-down. The Bucs were three for 13 on third-down attempts and went two for seven on fourth-down conversions.

“It didn't have to be at the strength it was last year, but we do have to execute it better,” Bowles said on Monday. “We’ve got to execute fourth downs better, as well. Especially the 4th and shorts, the 4th and 1s. You want to come out on the plus side of most of them, and we understand that as a group. And third down, we're shooting ourselves in the foot. Sometimes it's the pressure or the rush. Sometimes it's things that go wrong, but we’ve got to get that fixed.”

Normally, playing on a short week provides a unique set of challenges for almost any team. The good news is that Tampa has familiarity with Atlanta's offensive schemes, and vice versa.

“Playing a divisional opponent, we know them, they know us. And at this point of the season, we’ve just got to handle our business,” outside linebackers coach Larry Foote said on Tuesday. “We’ve got to get better, and we’ve got to - at the end of the day - win. It's December. It's time to win. And style points don't matter at this point. Give me one extra point than those guys, and we can celebrate in the locker room… We know their packages and formations. We’ve got history with Kirk Cousins, obviously, but it helps the coach as far as we already expect and we know what those guys do.”

For as bad as the Buccaneers have been, the Falcons have been worse. After starting the season 3-2, Atlanta has just one win in its last eight games. They're also in the middle of a two-game losing streak following a 37-9 thrashing by the Seattle Seahawks, which officially eliminated the Falcons from the 2026 NFL Playoffs.

“We just haven't found a way to put four quarters together. That's pretty disappointing,” explained safety Jessie Bates III after the loss. “I mean, just the whole second half, I didn't think we played well.”

Though the Falcons were eliminated from playoff contention for the eighth consecutive year, Bates said that there is a lot still to play for.

“Frustration is a good thing. People care. Just got to stay together. Now, we're still fighting for our jobs, for each other's families, and all that good stuff,” he said. “Any time you’ve got another opportunity to go out there and play, it's great.”

This is a rematch of the game played between these two teams in Week One, when the Bucs defeated the Falcons 23-20. Despite the familiarity that these two have with one another, both squads have gone through a lot of changes since then.

“It happens fast. Obviously, you gotta turn the page. You kind of start watching, really, Sunday right after the game. You clean up the tape from Sunday's game, and you gotta move quickly,” said Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. “We know these guys, but, of course, everybody kind of shifts and changes throughout the season based on their personnel that's available, all those different things. But, [they have a] really good defense as always. It's coach Bowles, and he does an unbelievable job. He's done it for a long time. And so, we know that we're going to get their absolute best. We know they're right in the thick of things, so we're going to have a great week of prep. These games are always hard against these guys. So, we're anticipating that kind of game, and our guys will be excited for it.”

In order for Atlanta to pull off the upset tonight, it's going to have to limit the effectiveness of the Buccaneers' passing attack. That starts with containing Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield, who ranks 12th in the NFL in QBR.

“The quarterback, he's Houdini, you know? You watch him against some of the best defensive lines in this league, and you feel like he's corralled, he's down, he's sacked, and - all of a sudden - not only does he get out of like the most impossible situations, then he makes a play. He's as good as I've seen in a long, long time as far as the competitor that he is, [and] the toughness that he demonstrates on a play-to-play basis,” said defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. “We preach, be at your best when your best is required. Well, he lives that life. Critical third downs, two-minute, end of game, when you’ve got to have a play, he just consistently makes it. You don't stop Baker Mayfield with your rush. You stop him with everything.”

Prediction for Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

The Falcons have nothing to play for in this game, and they're on the road, which gives Tampa Bay two meaningful competitive advantages. It also doesn't help that Atlanta leans heavily on the rushing attack to open up the rest of the offensive playbook since the Bucs rank eighth in rushing yards allowed (100.6 yards per game). Though the Dirty Birds are one of the best pass-rushing teams in the league (third in sacks this season), Tampa is well-equipped to take on that challenge with an offensive line that has only allowed 26 sacks, tied for the 11th-fewest in the NFL. This should be a win for the Buccaneers, albeit a close one, but it will be a win nonetheless.

Prediction: Buccaneers 21 - 19 Falcons

How to watch Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

Falcons @ Buccaneers starts at 8:15 p.m. EDT at Raymond James Stadium. You can watch it on Amazon Prime Video.

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