The Open Analysis
Summary of Tips:
Gold Medal Pick - Tommy Fleetwood 11/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Silver Medal Pick - Viktor Hovland 22/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Bronze Medal Pick - Tyrrell Hatton 25/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Longshot to Watch - Matt Jordan 200/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Prop Bet of the Week - Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland & Tyrrell Hatton Top-20
*Odds correct when posting
CLAIM OFFER
Introduction & Course Breakdown
After a very successful week at the Genesis Scottish Open, where we landed the winner with Tom Kim and also hit our prop bet of the week, we move on to the final major of the season: The Open Championship. This year, the Claret Jug returns to Royal Birkdale in Southport, where Jordan Spieth was victorious in 2017, holding off Matt Kuchar to become Champion Golfer of the Year.
Royal Birkdale is a par 70 measuring just over 7,200 yards, so while it isn't one of the longest Open venues, it provides one of the fairest and purest tests of championship golf. Set amongst the sand dunes, the course features relatively flat fairways by Open Championship standards, placing a premium on precision rather than simply power. It's often described as a venue where the best all-round golfers naturally rise to the top.
The fairways average around 28 yards wide, roughly -17% narrower than a typical PGA Tour venue, with thick fescue rough waiting for any wayward tee shots. However, simply finding the fairway isn't enough. Players must also position themselves correctly to attack the smaller-than-average Open Championship greens, which measure around 5,200 square feet. With firm conditions expected, controlling both distance and trajectory into the greens will be crucial, particularly if the wind begins to blow.
CURRENT WEATHER FORECAST
Should players find the wrong section of the greens, approach shots can easily be repelled into tightly mown run-off areas, leaving difficult recovery shots from awkward lies. Those who possess excellent touch, creativity and the ability to scramble from tight lies will have a significant advantage throughout the week.
According to Data Golf, the closest comparison courses include Sea Island Golf Club, host of the RSM Classic, Harbour Town Golf Links, home of the RBC Heritage, and Colonial Country Club, which hosts the Charles Schwab Challenge. That said, with Royal Birkdale being a true links venue, I'd place even greater emphasis on players with a proven record in windy conditions and on Open Championship-style layouts.
Last 5 Years Winner Trends
Unfortunately, we don't have strokes gained data from when The Open was last held at Royal Birkdale, so when analysing winner trends we'll focus solely on recent Open Championships.
Looking at the form players brought into the tournament, one trend stands out immediately: eventual Champion Golfers arrive in excellent shape. Each of the last five winners had recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous five starts, with the group averaging an impressive three top-10s apiece. Even more interestingly, all five played the Genesis Scottish Open the week before, with four of them finishing inside the top-12 before going on to lift the Claret Jug.
Previous Open Championship form is slightly less conclusive. Three of the last five winners had already recorded a top-10 finish in the championship, while Collin Morikawa was the only player to win on his Open debut. Excluding Morikawa, the fewest previous Open appearances before winning was four, suggesting that experience of links golf and the unique demands of The Open is often an advantage. It's also worth noting that the last two winners at Royal Birkdale had both previously recorded top-five finishes in the championship, further highlighting the value of proven links pedigree.
Although strokes gained data from previous Open winners isn't the biggest indicator of what will be required this week, given the championship rotates between very different venues, it does reveal a couple of consistent themes. Putting and Strokes Gained: Approach have been the standout statistical categories, with winners averaging rankings of 5th and 9th respectively. In fact, three of the last four winners ranked 1st in Strokes Gained: Putting, while two led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, underlining the importance of elite iron play and taking advantage of scoring opportunities when they arise.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Good Drives %
Bogey Avoidance
Putting: 5-15ft & 3 putt avoidance
Scrambling from tight lies
Par 4 Scoring
For my key stats this week, it will come as no surprise that Strokes Gained: Approach tops the list. Precision into the greens will be absolutely vital at Royal Birkdale, with players needing to find the correct sections of these firm, relatively small putting surfaces to avoid leaving themselves difficult up-and-downs.
I've paired that with Good Drives % as my second metric. Finding the narrow fairways is crucial, but so too is positioning tee shots to create the best possible angle into the greens. This statistic rewards players who consistently give themselves a good chance of hitting the green in regulation, even if they don't always find the fairway.
My third metric is Bogey Avoidance, which becomes even more important if the weather deteriorates. Birdie opportunities are likely to be limited, so avoiding dropped shots and taking your pars will be key to staying in contention.
The next two metrics also feed into that. I've included Putting from 5-15 feet and 3-Putt Avoidance, as players will need to convert testing par saves while avoiding costly three-putts on Birkdale's undulating greens. I've also factored in Scrambling from Tight Lies, with the tightly mown run-off areas placing a premium on touch and creativity around the greens.
Finally, with Royal Birkdale being a traditional par-70 layout, I've included Par 4 Scoring. The par 4s make up the majority of the holes this week, so players who consistently outperform the field on these holes should give themselves an excellent chance of lifting the Claret Jug.
Stats Model - Top 10
*LIV & DP World Tour players excluded
Scottie Scheffler
Si Woo Kim
Patrick Cantlay
Russell Henley
Tom Kim
Tommy Fleetwood
Matt Fitzpatrick
Rory McIlroy
Wyndham Clark
Cameron Young
The Open Tips:
Gold Medal Pick: Tommy Fleetwood 11/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet)
This may be a heart-over-head selection, but if Tommy Fleetwood is ever going to win The Open, it feels like this is the one. A local lad returning to Royal Birkdale, he'll have the full backing of the home crowd as he looks to capture his first major championship.
Fleetwood arrives at the final major of the year in excellent form. Although he could only manage 13th at the Scottish Open last week, he has finished outside the top 20 just once in his last seven starts, with his only blemish being a missed cut at the PGA Championship. While he ranks 42nd on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach this season, he has consistently gained with his irons in recent events and is one of the best links players in the world, thanks to his ability to control both trajectory and ball flight in difficult conditions.
Alongside his approach play, Fleetwood ranks 17th in Good Drives %, underlining just how reliable he is from the tee. He also excels when scoring is tough, ranking 5th in Bogey Avoidance and 21st in 3-Putt Avoidance, two statistics that should prove invaluable around Royal Birkdale.
Finally, Fleetwood has an excellent Open Championship record, recording three top-20 finishes in his last five appearances. With his current form, proven links pedigree and the support of the home crowd behind him, let's hope this is finally the week he gets over the line.
Silver Medal Pick: Viktor Hovland 22/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Up next is a man who might not receive the warmest welcome in Liverpool this week after his comments ahead of the England vs Norway game, and that's recent winner Viktor Hovland.
Hovland also arrives in excellent form, having claimed victory a couple of starts ago before backing it up with a tied-13th finish last time out. While his major championship results this season have been mixed with an 18th-place finish and two missed cuts, he has an excellent Open Championship record, posting three top-15 finishes in his last five appearances.
Hovland ranks 11th in my stats model and looks a strong fit for Royal Birkdale. He sits 15th in Strokes Gained: Approach, with his iron play improving significantly in recent weeks, while he also ranks 17th on Tour in driving accuracy, highlighting the accuracy that should prove invaluable around this venue. He also ranks 24th in Par 4 Scoring, despite not consistently producing his very best golf this season.
What I really like about Hovland is that he knows how to close out tournaments. With eight PGA Tour victories already to his name, he's shown time and again that if he gives himself a chance on Sunday, he has the temperament to get the job done. Hopefully, this week is no different.
Bronze Medal Pick: Tyrrell Hatton 25/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Hatton is someone I've been backing for a while now, and I'm sticking with him for a third consecutive tournament. He eventually finished 17th at the Scottish Open despite making a disastrous start with a triple bogey on the opening hole, something I'm happy to put down to a little rust rather than any cause for concern.
Hatton is one of the best links golfers in the world. He has recorded three top-20 finishes in his last five Open Championship appearances and, as mentioned last week, boasts an outstanding record in Scotland. His worst finish at The Renaissance Club is 24th, while he's also a three-time winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
He also arrives in excellent form, having won at the notoriously difficult Valderrama just a few starts ago. More importantly, he finally seems to have found his feet in the majors, recording three top-10 finishes and two further top-20s in his last seven major championship starts.
Although his iron play wasn't quite at its best last week, his approach game has been trending in the right direction for some time, and he led the field in Strokes Gained: Putting at the Scottish Open, something that could prove invaluable at Royal Birkdale. Combine that with his excellent scrambling ability and proven links pedigree, and I think he has another excellent chance of contending this week.
Longshot to Watch: Matt Jordan 200/1 (10 Places – LiveScoreBet)
For my longshot this week, I've gone with links specialist Matt Jordan, despite him not enjoying the best season by his own standards.
Jordan grew up in Liverpool, with his home course being Hoylake, which hosted The Open in 2023. He produced a superb performance that week to finish 10th, and backed it up with another top-10 finish at Royal Troon the following year, highlighting just how comfortable he is when the game heads to traditional links venues.
Although this hasn't been his strongest campaign, there are signs his game is beginning to trend in the right direction. He's gained strokes on approach in each of his last four starts, is one of the more accurate drivers when playing his best golf, and almost always gains strokes around the greens. The area that's held him back has been the putter, with Jordan losing more than a stroke per round on the greens in six of his last seven events.
What gives me confidence is that those putting struggles have never followed him into The Open. Across his last three Open Championship appearances, he hasn't lost strokes putting once, including gaining more than four strokes on the greens over four rounds when he finished 10th at Hoylake.
I think Jordan represents an excellent longshot this week and, and you can also back him at around 350/1 with seven places, if you want to ladder your places.
Prop Bet of the Week: Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland & Tyrrell Hatton Top-20
For my prop bet this week, I'm sticking with the same winning formula that landed last week by combining all of my outright selections into a top-20 accumulator.
As mentioned throughout the preview, all four players arrive in excellent form and have each recorded three top-20 finishes in their last five Open Championship appearances, giving them every chance of repeating the feat this week. They're all strong drivers of the golf ball, which should help keep them out of trouble around Royal Birkdale, and each has proven they can handle links conditions and perform when the wind gets up.
Hopefully they can all produce another consistent week and make it back-to-back winning prop bets. Worth noting you can also get Matt Jordan at 9-1 to come top-20 which also feels like a great play.
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