Genesis Scottish Open Analysis
Summary of Tips:
Gold Medal Pick - Wyndham Clark 33/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Silver Medal Pick - Tyrrell Hatton 33/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Bronze Medal Pick - Nicolai Højgaard 50/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Longshot to Watch - Tom Kim 80/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Prop Bet of the Week - Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim & Tyrrell Hatton Top-20
*Odds correct when posting
CLAIM OFFER
Introduction & Course Breakdown
For the final warm-up before The Open, we head to Scotland for one of my favourite events of the year, the Genesis Scottish Open, held at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick. The venue has hosted the tournament since 2019, and the field is always packed with stars as players look to acclimatise ahead of the final major of the season. Last year, Chris Gotterup burst onto the scene by claiming victory at 15-under-par, finishing ahead of Marco Penge and Rory McIlroy.
Although The Renaissance Club is a par 70, it isn't a traditional one. With three par 5s and five par 3s, the course stretches to just over 7,300 yards and plays longer than its par suggests. As with any links venue, the weather can have a huge influence on scoring. In calmer conditions it can become a birdie-fest, but when the wind picks up it quickly turns into a survival test, as we saw when Xander Schauffele won in 2022.
CURRENT WEATHER FORECAST
Based on previous editions, The Renaissance Club has been something of a bomber's paradise, with average driving distance sitting around +2% above the PGA Tour average despite the fairways being slightly narrower than normal. However, shorter, accurate hitters can still compete thanks to the firm fairways, which often provide significant run-out. One reason players can be aggressive off the tee is that the rough is relatively forgiving, with the scoring difference between the fairway and rough around -22% smaller than the PGA Tour average. As a result, driving accuracy tends to be around -8pts lower than the Tour norm.
Helping those who miss the fairway are the enormous greens, which average over 7,500 square feet and contribute to Greens in Regulation sitting slightly above the PGA Tour average. However, that doesn't necessarily make approach play easy. Most approaches come from beyond +175 yards, and the firm, fast greens are heavily contoured, meaning finding the wrong section can leave players with near-impossible putts. As a result, separating yourself with the putter is often just as important as elite ball-striking, particularly on the slower fescue greens.
One thing players must avoid are the deep revetted pot bunkers, which almost always result in a dropped shot. They influence strategy both off the tee and into the greens. Around the putting surfaces, recovery shots can also be challenging due to the tightly mown run-off areas, rewarding players with creativity and excellent touch around the greens.
Last 5 Years Winner Trends
Analysing previous winners, and starting with their strokes gained data from the week of victory, it quickly becomes clear just how important Strokes Gained: Off the Tee is at The Renaissance Club. The average off-the-tee ranking of the winners was an impressive 7th, highlighting the advantage gained through strong driving, whether that be through power or positioning.
Approach play appears to be the next most important metric. However, if players aren't at their very best with their irons, they need to compensate with an elite short game and putting, as Chris Gotterup demonstrated last year by ranking inside the top-10 in both Strokes Gained: Around the Green and Strokes Gained: Putting.
Looking at course form, only two of the previous winners had recorded a top-10 finish at The Renaissance Club before lifting the trophy. The other three had limited experience at the venue, although none were making their tournament debut. This suggests course form carries some importance, but simply having previous experience of the course appears to be more valuable than having contended there before.
Finally, recent form stands out as a strong indicator. All but one of the previous winners had recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous five starts, while two arrived having already won during that stretch. Furthermore, following his victory last year, Chris Gotterup continued his excellent run by recording three top-10 finishes in his next five starts, including a third-place finish at The Open. It's another indication that players arriving in good form are well placed to contend at The Renaissance Club.
Key Stats
Total Driving
Putting: 3-putt Avoidance & Putting 5-15ft
Strokes Gained: Approach (Key yardages 175-200 & 200+)
Birdie or Better %
Scrambling from tight lies
Looking at the key stats for this week, it will come as no surprise that Total Driving tops the list based on the trends of previous winners. Combining both distance and accuracy, it reflects the importance of being able to take advantage of the generous run-out off the tee while still finding the right positions and angles to attack these tricky pin locations.
Next up is Putting, which I think will be a defining factor this week, much like it was at Shinnecock a few weeks ago. I've combined 3-Putt Avoidance, with the large, undulating greens leading to plenty of long-range putts, and Putting from 5-15 feet, which will be crucial for both converting birdie opportunities and saving par. It's also worth paying attention to players who traditionally putt well on Open Championship-style venues, as the slower fescue greens often suit a different type of putter than those found on the PGA Tour.
Third is Strokes Gained: Approach. While it may not be quite as influential here as at some venues, it's still vital for finding the correct sections of these expansive greens and creating birdie opportunities, particularly if the weather remains relatively calm.
That leads into my fourth metric, Birdie or Better Percentage. Winning scores at The Renaissance Club have typically reached the mid-teens under par, so players still need to create and convert plenty of scoring opportunities. However, if the forecast deteriorates and the wind becomes a major factor, I'd be inclined to replace this with Bogey Avoidance.
Finally, I've selected Scrambling from Tight Lies. If players aren't at their best with their approach play, or if the weather turns, recovering from the tightly mown run-off areas becomes increasingly important. Strong touch and creativity around the greens could prove the difference between staying in contention and falling out of the tournament.
Stats Model - Top 10
*LIV & DP World Tour players excluded
Scottie Scheffler
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Si Woo Kim
Jake Knapp
Wyndham Clark
Viktor Hovland
Mac Meissner
Tommy Fleetwood
Ludvig Åberg
Keith Mitchell
Genesis Scottish Open Tips:
Gold Medal Pick: Wyndham Clark 33/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Clark is my gold selection this week following his U.S. Open triumph at Shinnecock a few weeks ago. He's a confidence player, and right now he's full of it, backing up his major victory with a fifth-place finish at the Travelers Championship to show there's no sign of him taking his foot off the gas.
Clark ranks sixth in my model. He sits 41st in Total Driving this season, although that's largely due to his driving accuracy, which shouldn't be nearly as much of a concern around here given the generous run-out and relatively forgiving rough. He also ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Approach and arrives with a red-hot putter, having gained strokes on the greens in each of his last eight events, including top-five putting performances in three of his last five starts, highlighted also by ranking 2nd in birdie or better %.
His course form is equally encouraging. Clark has only finished outside the top-20 once in four starts, with that result still being a respectable 26th. While I'm normally cautious about backing players immediately after a major victory, he's already shown he's hungry for more, and I think he has an excellent chance of contending again this week.
Silver Medal Pick: Tyrrell Hatton 33/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
I'm back on Hatton this week as my silver pick after backing him at the U.S. Open, where he rewarded us with a seventh-place finish. He arrives in excellent form, recording four top-10 finishes in his last six starts, including a victory at the notoriously difficult Valderrama.
Although we don't have PGA Tour statistics to include in the model, we know the pedigree Hatton possesses. He's an elite driver of the golf ball, his iron play has been excellent in recent weeks, and he can be electric on the greens, particularly on links-style layouts. That's reflected in his outstanding record at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, where he has claimed three titles.
Hatton also brings solid course form to The Renaissance Club, with four top-25 finishes to his name, including a sixth-place finish in 2022. Given his current form and proven links pedigree, I'm confident he has every chance of picking up a much-needed victory this week. With uncertainty still surrounding the long-term future of LIV players and PGA Tour eligibility, another high-profile win certainly wouldn't do his prospects any harm.
Bronze Medal Pick: Nicolai Højgaard 50/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
I'm back on my favourite twin for my bronze pick, with The Renaissance Club looking like the perfect fit for Nicolai Højgaard's game. He has already recorded two top-10 finishes in four starts here, underlining just how comfortable he is on this layout. One of the longest hitters on Tour, Nicolai ranks 4th in driving distance, with accuracy generally being the only weakness in his long game.
Statistically, he's been strong across the board this season. He ranks 20th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 28th in Strokes Gained: Approach (14th from 200 yard), and is also quietly one of the better players around the greens, sitting inside the top-40 on Tour for Scrambling from Tight Lies. He can also become very streaky with the putter, which of course is a valuable asset.
His recent form isn't ideal, with three missed cuts in his last five starts. However, he did finish 14th last time out, and I'm hoping a return to European soil, and a course where he's already enjoyed plenty of success, helps him rediscover his best golf.
Longshot to Watch: Tom Kim 80/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Tom Kim is my longshot selection this week and, to be perfectly honest, he was actually my first bet of the week. He's been on my radar ever since he landed us a third-place finish at the U.S. Open.
Kim's game is finally starting to come together again. He has gained strokes on approach in each of his last eight starts and currently ranks 11th on Tour in the category. The encouraging sign is that whenever the putter has cooperated, the results have followed, he has recorded three top-20 finishes in the three events where he's gained strokes on the greens.
In addition to that, Kim's accuracy off the tee makes him an excellent fit here. He ranks 38th in Total Driving and, with the firm fairways providing plenty of run-out, he shouldn't be giving up as much distance to the longer hitters as he normally does. If he does miss greens, he's also one of the better scramblers from tight lies, ranking 13th on Tour this season.
Those attributes have already translated into an excellent record at this venue. In four starts at The Renaissance Club, Kim has never finished worse than 17th and has recorded two top-10 finishes. We know he has the temperament to get over the line, as shown by the multiple victories he picked up when he burst onto the PGA Tour, so hopefully all he needs this week is to give himself another chance on Sunday.
Prop Bet of the Week: Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim & Tyrrell Hatton Top-20 - TBC (LiveScoreBet)
For my prop bet of the week, I've put together three of my outright selections, Clark, Kim and Hatton, in a top-20 acca.
The main reason I like this bet is that all three players arrive in strong form, and they each have an excellent record at The Renaissance Club. Between them, they've made 12 starts at the venue, with only two finishes outside the top-20, and even those were respectable 24th and 26th place finishes.
Hopefully they can continue that consistency this week. Although the odds aren't available at the time of writing, I'm expecting this to offer some decent value once the markets goes live.
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