With nearly a fortnight of the 2026 FIFA World Cup now behind us, it is fair to say that the initial sparring contests are now out of the way. From here on in, every result matters in one way or another.
48 teams started the competition on June 11th; that number will be whittled down to 32 just 17 days later. The top two nations from each of the 12 groups will have booked automatic passage to the knockout phase but for the teams that finish third, things start to get more complicated.
That’s because only eight third-place teams will earn their own golden tickets to the Round of 32, this means four sides will also be on the first flight home along with the 12 nations that have each propped up their group.
So how does twelve turn into eight? By virtue of a league table for all teams that finished third. Find yourself second-bottom in the group and you are then ranked in comparison to all your third-place counterparts.
With the first two group stage games now played by each of the 48 entrants, the third-place table currently looks like this:
Team | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sweden | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
Scotland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Croatia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | −1 | 3 |
Algeria | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | −2 | 3 |
Paraguay | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | −2 | 3 |
Cape Verde | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Belgium | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Czech Republic | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −1 | 1 |
DR Congo | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −1 | 1 |
Ecuador | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 1 |
Bosnia | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | −3 | 1 |
Senegal | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | −3 | 0 |
Before we break down those sides that are likely to qualify and those that are set to miss out on knockout tournament football, there is a very important thing to remember:
The current 12 nations in the table above they may not necessarily be the 12 teams that are in the final rankings table.
Not only is this a fluid concept between those that are currently being ranked, but it is a fluid concept across all 12 groups. Depending on the third round of group results, these teams on show could drop out by finishing second and earning automatic qualification.
Scotland
They could of course, also drop out of the standings by subsequently finishing fourth and missing out altogether. There is a lot at stake and although Scotland supporters may be breathing slightly easier over the past few nights, they cannot relax just yet.
Before their clash with Brazil in just a few hours, the Tartan Army are currently ranked as the second-best side in the third-place ranking table. The good news is that they cannot finish fourth in Group C due to head-to-head results serving as the first tie-breaker instead of goal difference.
This means that Scotland’s narrow win over Haiti in their opening Group C encounter is enough to secure a top-three finish. The question is whether they have done enough before their upcoming clash with Brazil.
On the face of it, it would suggest they have, and if they manage to pick up at least a point against Carlo Ancelotti’s side, then it will all but assure them of a first qualification out of any World Cup group stage.
However, the risk for Scotland comes with suffering back-to-back defeats at this year’s tournament. Should they lose to Brazil, it not only means being stuck on three points but also moving into negative goal difference territory.
This is where the Tartan Army then become vulnerable to the teams that are currently sitting below them and although their position is strong before kickoff, it only takes a defeat by two or three goals to start getting the calculators out.
Then again, Scotland also have the unenviable task of then having to wait across the weekend to see what other results come in. They will also be keeping a close eye on what happened in Group B hours before their clash with Brazil.
Bosnia
This is where Bosnia will look to cash in against Qatar and if they get the better of the 2022 World Cup hosts, then their chances of collecting a top-eight berth would have increased considerably – their current 11th place standing in the ranking table arguably a false position.
While they may be hoping for a Switzerland win in order to try and squeeze past Canada into second. The only problem is that if that is to be the case, they will also have to beat Qatar by a bigger magnitude than what Jesse Marsch’s side managed just a few days ago.
Sweden
The biggest magnitude of all the final group games relating to third-place finishes is arguably in Group F and although Sweden finds itself sitting at the top of the ranking table, they will have designs on squeezing into second.
The reason for this is their pairing with Japan in their final group stage encounter and a win for Graham Potter’s side would then see them earn automatic qualification at the expense of one of the tournament’s more impressive outfits.
Then again, that may be wishful thinking as far as Sweden are concerned, as they will have to dust themselves down after their thrashing at the hands of the Netherlands on Saturday. Not only that but a win for Japan may also strengthen Scotland’s qualification bid at the same time.
Ultimately, Scotland need to avoid losing to Brazil and also avoid other third-place sides earning four points from their three group stage endeavours. That is where the problems start to multiply for Steve Clarke and his players.
Sengal
Unfortunately, there is only one current third-place team who cannot get to four points with a win in their last group stage encounter and that is Senegal. The Group I outfit have already suffered defeat at the hands of France and Norway, both they and Iraq know a win would give them a chance of progress.
A slim chance it must be said, but three points could still be good enough for a place in the Round of 32. At the same time, both Senegal and Iraq’s negative goal difference will be doing them few favours at present.
Croatia
In terms of favours, Croatia will be grateful that Ghana held England to a goalless draw on Tuesday night and even more so once they managed to get past Panama just a few hours later. That result has strengthened their bid to move to the Knockout phase of the tournament.
While they will hope to then get the better of Ghana in their final group stage encounter. Should they manage that, the African nation would drop into the third-place rankings (on the assumption that England have dealt with Panama), this could be bad news for Scotland.
Another side that has managed to collect four points and finish third is not the ideal combination for those of a Scottish fandom, all the more reason why getting something at the expense of Brazil is even more important.
Croatia are the third of five nations that currently sit third and have lost one and won the other of their first two group matches. The remaining two are Paraguay and Algeria of Group D and Group J respectively.
Paraguay and Algeria
Two groups that still have a lot to play for but two groups where there could also be a marriage of convenience at the final whistle. Paraguay and Australia meet in Group D with three points to their name, Algeria and Austria do the same in Group J.
This means that a draw in both games could be beneficial to all four teams. Paraguay and Algeria know that a draw would all but see their progress confirmed. Australia and Austria know they don’t really need to risk anything either. These two games may be light on entertainment.
Cape Verde
While in terms of entertainment, Cape Verde have been incredible guests to this party and with two points to their name, they know that some form of positive result will help their chances of moving out of Group H.
A third successive draw would give them three points but perhaps more importantly, an equal goal difference and that would see the African debutants leapfrog Scotland, should they lose to Brazil this evening.
Belgium
Belgium are also two from two when it comes to stalemates but Group G is arguably the most open of all. They should be the favourites to get the better of New Zealand but after struggling against Iran and Egypt previously, they find themselves in a slightly precarious position.
Should they beat the All Whites, the focus is then on what happens in the game between Egypt and Iran. A win for the latter and a win for Belgium, would then place Mo Salah and his teammates into third with four points. Once again, a combination that may do Scotland no favours.
Czech Republic, DR Congo and Ecuador
While the trio of the Czech Republic, DR Congo and Ecuador may need favours from elsewhere if they are to advance. The three nations all in a rather precarious position before the final phase of group stage encounters, all with just a single point to their name.
Which means that if they only manage to collect a point in their final outings, their chances of advancing to the Round of 32 will be incredibly slim. Not only that, but they still have to make sure they even earn a point.
There is still plenty to play for in Group A and if results go the Czech’s way, they could leapfrog South Korea into second. At the same time, South Africa could leapfrog them as well. A better result for Bafana Bafana (if both outcomes are a win) would see them sneak into second.
Should that be the case, it would mean another third-place team on four points, Scotland supporters’ fingernails possibly getting shorter by the hour. More so, if DR Congo get the better of Uzbekistan in Group K.
A win for them would mean they are also on four points from three games and if they are to finish above Portugal, Roberto Martinez’s men would first need to lose against Colombia and also see their 5-0 win over the Uzbek’s eroded as well in terms of goal difference.
The only saving grace for Scotland comes in Group E, as although Ecuador and Curacao are currently fighting it out for third place with a point each, they do have unfavourable fixtures against Germany and the Ivory Coast, respectively.
This means there is at least one group that is unlikely to finish above Scotland but if they do the unlikely and beat Brazil on Wednesday night, then they can sit back, relax and wonder what all the fuss was about.
