Mexico have won four out of four at this World Cup, leading at half-time in two
England have failed to score a first‑half goal in three straight matches
Recommended bet: Half Time - Mexico @ 27/10 with LiveScore Bet
England face co‑hosts Mexico in the last 16 of the World Cup late on Sunday night and this, by some distance, is the toughest test of their tournament credentials so far.
At the Azteca Stadium, England will come up against a team who have won all four of their matches, are backed by one of the most intense home crowds in world football and who possess a near‑mythical record in Mexico City.
Add in England's brutal travel schedule, Mexico's altitude advantage and a Three Lions defence that has looked shaky against all four of their opponents and this tie suddenly looks far more dangerous than the odds imply.
Date, kick‑off time, stadium, competition
Sunday July 5th, 11pm kick-off time, Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, World Cup 2026 last 16
Where to Watch
BBC One, BBC iPlayer
Outright Odds
More market odds and predictions
Recommended bet | Stat |
Mexico to lead at Half Time | Mexico led at HT in six of their last eight games |
Raul Jimenez to score anytime | Jimenez has scored in seven of his last 12 games for Mexico |
Under 1.5 England Goals | Mexico have not conceded more than once in any of their last 12 matches |
Under 1.5 Second Half Goals | Nine of Mexico's last 12 games have seen fewer than two second-half goals |
Ezri Konsa Over 1.5 Fouls Conceded | Konsa has conceded two or more fouls in two of his last three games for England. |
England will have to overcome a uniquely hostile and physically demanding environment to claim a place in the quarter-finals.
Mexico have had a rest and travel advantage over the Three Lions and, by making their base near the Azteca Stadium, they are fully acclimatised to the 2,000m altitude.
England are not and Thomas Tuchel warned that it will be a big disadvantage to his team in the aftermath of their 2-1 come-from-behind win over DR Congo on Wednesday.
El Tri have not lost at the Azteca since 2013 and are unbeaten in 10 World Cup matches at the venue.
Javier Aguirre's side have the momentum of a seven-match winning run and were able to rest some legs in their comfortable 2-0 win over Ecuador in the round of 32.
The South American side, who play home matches at altitudes even greater than Mexico City, were swept aside by two first-half goals from Julian Quinones and Raul Jimenez.
Quinones now has three goals in the tournament and Jimenez, who has scored in seven of his last 12 Mexico games, is just three strikes away from a half-century at international level.
Harry Kane scored his 12th and 13th World Cup goals to surpass Pele on the all-time list as the Three Lions overcame a poor start against the Leopards.
Tuchel's side have relied heavily their captain and Jude Bellingham for moments of brilliance as the performances of their wide players have been inconsistent.
England have failed to score a first‑half goal in three consecutive matches and look shaky at the back when teams go after them.
Ezri Konsa has conceded multiple fouls in two of his last three games and was lucky not to give away a penalty against Ghana.
How Tuchel's defence holds up against an in-form Mexico side will determine the outcome of this match, but El Tri's superior energy, tempo and acclimatisation to altitude could be decisive.
Team news
The Three Lions have endured a string of fitness scares during the tournament and the latest involves Declan Rice, who was forced off late on against DR Congo.
The Arsenal midfielder filled in at England's problem position of right-back as they chased the game in the second half and appeared to be struggling.
Jarell Quansah came off with a twisted ankle in England's 2-0 win over Panama, while Reece James is still not expected to recover from a hamstring issue in time for the last‑16 clash.
Djed Spence looks likely to feature on the right of an unchanged starting back four, with the midfield combination also set in stone as long as Rice is deemed fit enough to play.
Tuchel's biggest selection dilemma lies on the wings with Bukayo Saka pushing hard for a recall, while Anthony Gordon has made a compelling case after becoming the first England player to register multiple World Cup goal involvements as a substitute.
Both now appear to be in pole position to start alongside Bellingham in support of Kane.
Mexico, in contrast, emerged from their 2‑0 win over Ecuador with a clean bill of health. The standout story was 17‑year‑old Gilberto Mora, who became the second‑youngest player to start a World Cup knockout match.
The Tijuana talent impressed and completed the match unscathed, but he may still miss out, with Javier Aguirre likely to turn back to the more experienced Brian Gutierrez in midfield.
Quinones and Roberto Alvarado, who has assisted three goals in the tournament, operate in attack with spearhead Jimenez.
Predicted Team Line‑Ups
Mexico (4‑3‑3): Raul Rangel; Jorge Sanchez, Cesar Montes, Johan Vasquez, Jesus Gallardo; Luis Romo, Erik Lira, Brian Gutierrez; Roberto Alvarado, Raul Jimenez, Julian Quinones.
England (4‑2‑3‑1): Jordan Pickford; Djed Spence, Ezri Konsa, Marc Guehi, Nico O'Reilly; Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson; Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon; Harry Kane.
Stats
Mexico have lost two of 89 competitive games at Estadio Azteca
El Tri are unbeaten in 10 World Cup matches at the Azteca
Mexico have kept clean sheets in 10 of their last 12 fixtures
Nine of England’s last 10 matches have featured fewer than four goals
England have failed to score a first‑half goal in three consecutive matches
Roberto Alvarado has three assists and averages 2.5 key passes per match
Raul Jimenez has two goals at this World Cup
Score Prediction: Mexico 2-1 England
The latest Mexico vs England odds are available on LiveScore Bet
