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Canada vs Morocco predictions: Canucks make Atlas Lions toil

Published:
Gareth FreemanGareth Freeman
Canada take on Morocco in the World Cup last 16 on Saturday and Gareth Freeman believes the Canucks can at least drag this tie into extra-time.
Jesse Marsch and Canada will be eager to extend their World Cup run by seeing off Morocco.
Jesse Marsch and Canada will be eager to extend their World Cup run by seeing off Morocco.
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Canada have enjoyed an incredible World Cup so far as co-hosts, but they face a significant step up in class in the last 16 against Morocco.

The Atlas Lions reached the semi-finals in Qatar four years ago and are on an impressive 33-game unbeaten streak.

Morocco are the deserved favourites, but they were given an examination in their last 32 tie as they needed extra-time and penalties to see off the Netherlands, whereas Canada managed to overcome South Africa inside 90 minutes.

Date, kick-off time, stadium, competition

July 4th, 6pm kick-off time, NRG Stadium, World Cup 2026 last 16

Where to Watch

ITV1, STV, ITVX & STV Player

Outright Odds

Canada 250/1 Morocco 28/1

More market odds and predictions

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Stat

Canada win or draw double chance

Canada have lost just one of their last 12 games

Ismael Saibari to score anytime

Morocco's Saibari has three World Cup goals.

Both teams to score - yes

Both teams have scored in three of Morocco's four games

Achraf Hakimi over 0.5 shots on target

Achraf Hakimi is averaging exactly one shot on target per-game.

Canada over 4.5 shots on target

Canada have had 28 shots on target across four World Cup games.

Whatever happens on Saturday, Canada have already enjoyed their best ever World Cup having claimed their first points during the group stage and then reaching the knockout phase for the first time.

The Canucks face their toughest test yet against a very strong Morocco team and they may be able to pull off a shock and reach the quarter-finals, or at least take this tie into extra-time.

Morocco are clearly the stronger team but Canada have a few advantages working in their favour. This game will be played in the USA, but it will feel more like a home game for the Canadians, who will be well supported.

Also they have had an extra day to rest and prepare for this game, while Morocco also had to come through extra-time and penalties in their last 32 tie.

Jesse Marsch's side have also been boosted by the return to fitness of Alphonso Davies, their star man, after he sat out the entirety of the group stages.

The Bayern Munich wideman made a huge difference when he came on against South Africa and is expected to start against Morocco so we should see the best version of Canada on Saturday.

The Atlas Lions are on an incredible 33-game unbeaten run, but three of their last five have finished level after 90 minutes, so backing Canada to win or draw looks a good angle.

Morocco forward Ismael Saibari is the best candidate for an anytime goal as he has three goals in four games so far.

He drew a blank against the Oranje last time out and should be looking to respond after a subdued performance by his own standards.

Backing both teams to score also looks a good option here as both attacks are in form. Canada have scored in all of their World Cup games so far and going back further they have only failed to score in one of their last 10 fixtures.

Morocco have also scored in all of their World Cup games, keeping just one clean sheet and they have now scored in 10 consecutive fixtures.

Achraf Hakimi is yet to open his World Cup account, but the Morocco captain has been getting plenty of chances.

Hakimi is averaging 3.3 shots per game and exactly one per game on target in North America so he should be able to at least test the Canadian keeper.

As a team Canada can record at least five shots on target. They have had 28 shots on target across their four games and have managed at least seven in each of their last three, after recording four on target in their opening game against Bosnia.

Team news

The big news as far as Canada are concerned is that Davies is fit and could start for the first time after impressing as a substitute against South Africa.

The Canucks have no injury or suspension issues, but Morocco do have a couple of concerns.

The North African side are expected to be without Abde Ezzalzouli and Nayef Aguerd once again, while Cadi Riad is a doubt after he was forced off against the Netherlands in the last round.

Predicted Team Line-Ups

Canada (4-4-2): Maxime Crepeau; Richie Laryea, Derek Cornelius, Moïse Bombito, Alistair Johnston; Alphonso Davies, Stephen Eustáquio, Nathan Saliba, Tajon Buchanan; Jonathan David, Tani Oluwaseyi.

Morocco (4-2-3-1): Yassine Bounou; Noussair Mazraoui, Chadi Riad, Issa Diop, Achraf Hakimi; Ayyoub Bouaddi, Neil El Aynaoui; Bilal El Khannouss, Azzedine Ounahi, Brahim Díaz; Ismael Saibari.

Stats

  • Morocco won 2-1 when these sides met in the World Cup 2022 group stage

  • Canada have just two defeats in normal time in their last 22 games

  • Morocco are on a 33-game unbeaten run

  • Both teams have scored in three of Morocco's four World Cup games

  • Jonathan David is Canada's top scorer at the World Cup with three goals

  • Brahim Díaz is Morocco's assist leader with two

Score prediction: Canada 1-2 Morocco (AET)

The latest Canada vs Morocco odds are available on LiveScore Bet

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Canada vs Morocco predictions: Canucks make Atlas Lions toil