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Is The Premier League Getting Tighter?

Published:
Dan TraceyDan Tracey
The Traditional Premier League Giants Are Getting Squeezed By The Upstarts
The Traditional Premier League Giants Are Getting Squeezed By The Upstarts

There is a sense that this season’s edition of the Premier League has been the most competitive for some time. The relegation battle not being decided until the final day and the battle for European places going to wire, both serving as neat subplots to an enthralling title race.

But how do you actually measure how competitive a league has actually been? Is it the number of points the champions collected or is it the margin between Arsenal and runners-up Manchester City that is used as the metric to try and prove or disprove this theory.

Then again, it could be a more holistic approach and this is where a look at how each of the 20 teams in the division has performed. Not analysis in isolation, but instead by banding the table into three separate groups:

The Top Six The Middle Eight The Bottom Six

From there, we can track how points are distributed across the entire league rather than how they are collected by the teams at the very top. This gives us a clearer view of whether dominance is increasing or whether the league is actually flattening out over time.

Ultimately, this is not about who wins the league each season; it is how the total of 1,140 available points are shared across each season and with that in mind, here is the full breakdown of every Premier League season since 1995/96 (the beginning of the 20-team era)

Season

Top 6

Midtable

Bottom 6

Sum

Top 6 %

Midtable %

Bottom 6 %

1995/96

418

408

216

1042

40.12%

39.16%

20.73%

1996/97

399

382

237

1018

39.19%

37.52%

23.28%

1997/98

400

409

236

1045

38.28%

39.14%

22.58%

1998/99

411

388

226

1025

40.10%

37.85%

22.05%

1999/00

423

419

206

1048

40.36%

39.98%

19.66%

2000/01

414

405

220

1039

39.85%

38.98%

21.17%

2001/02

445

377

217

1039

42.83%

36.28%

20.89%

2002/03

421

406

223

1050

40.10%

38.67%

21.24%

2003/04

416

393

223

1032

40.31%

38.08%

21.61%

2004/05

432

385

213

1030

41.94%

37.38%

20.68%

2005/06

451

410

202

1063

42.43%

38.57%

19.00%

2006/07

426

398

218

1042

40.88%

38.20%

20.92%

2007/08

456

390

194

1040

43.85%

37.50%

18.65%

2008/09

456

377

210

1043

43.72%

36.15%

20.13%

2009/10

447

400

188

1035

43.19%

38.65%

18.16%

2010/11

410

383

236

1029

39.84%

37.22%

22.93%

2011/12

446

391

210

1047

42.60%

37.34%

20.06%

2012/13

450

372

210

1032

43.60%

36.05%

20.35%

2013/14

472

384

206

1062

44.44%

36.16%

19.40%

2014/15

437

397

213

1047

41.74%

37.92%

20.34%

2015/16

417

405

211

1033

40.37%

39.21%

20.43%

2016/17

477

372

207

1056

45.17%

35.23%

19.60%

2017/18

466

365

210

1041

44.76%

35.06%

20.17%

2018/19

474

404

191

1069

44.34%

37.79%

17.87%

2019/20

433

411

204

1048

41.32%

39.22%

19.47%

2020/21

427

430

200

1057

40.40%

40.68%

18.92%

2021/22

457

398

197

1052

43.44%

37.83%

18.73%

2022/23

448

402

203

1053

42.55%

38.18%

19.28%

2023/24

459

410

177

1046

43.88%

39.20%

16.92%

2024/25

430

436

181

1047

41.07%

41.64%

17.29%

2025/26

416

409

211

1036

40.15%

39.48%

20.37%

Before we look at this data in greater detail, there is a key point of reference and this is the 1,140 points that are on offer across the course of the season. This number may be up for grabs, but it would take an incredibly rare scenario for them to be collected in full.

With 380 Premier League games played each season (since the start of the 1995/96 campaign), a loser in each of them would mean the 1,140 points have been distributed to winning teams only. However, with draws also being permitted, this is where the total number starts to erode.

Therefore, the further away the total points won per season drifts away from 1,140, the first signal of competition throughout the division can be spotted. For example, if we take the 2025/256 season, we can see that a total of 1,036 points were collected – 104 short of the magic total.

That does not sound too far away from the figure, but when you compare it to the most recent previous seasons it is the furthest away from 1,140 since the 2015/16 season where 1,033 points were mopped up collectively.

This suggests that there were more draws this season than in any other campaign in the past decade and if you look at the 2018/19 season, the total points of 1,069 were; only 71 away from the absolute maximum – confirming that drawn games were at a real premium.

Then again, points collected will only offer one angle of insight and to get a better idea of how competitive this season has been, we need to look at it from the perspective of the three bands mentioned earlier.

If we drill down to the 2025/26 season, just over 40% of the points were collected by the top six teams in the division. 40.15% to be exact and although that sounds like a large proportion, it is actually the smallest percentage share since the 2010/11 season.

That was the season where only 39.84% of the points were collected by the top six teams. From a total points perspective, only 1.029 were collected. 111 away from the absolute maximum and this will be because of a greater number of draws – which in turn leads to a wider points spread.

AT THE BOTTOM

Of course, it is not only the top six teams that need a lower percentage value to offer a sign of competitiveness, but also the two other bands and this is where the mid and bottom packs of this season’s Premier League have stood up to the plate.

Especially when you look at the teams fighting relegation and although Wolves and Burnley’s respective survival bids fell short before the final day, they still played a part in the bottom six collectively picking up the highest percentage split of points since the introduction of VAR.

The teams finishing between 15th and 20th this season collected 20.37% of the 1,036 points collected. We already know that this was more of a draw heavy campaign, we also know that the ‘weaker’ teams were not blown away either.

Compare that 20.37% to the two seasons prior and you will notice a marked difference. The 2023/24 and 2024/25 seasons were known for being foregone conclusions when it came to the relegation battle, it also give the three teams above the drop zone little urgency to collect points themselves.

Just 16.92% of the points earned by teams 15th to 20th during the 2023/24 season, a figure rising to just 17.29% a season later when the same relegation woes were on show. Compare those figures to this and there’s a difference of 3.45% and 3.08%, respectively.

IN THE MIDDLE

At the same time, we should not overlook what happens in the middle of the Premier League table and this is arguably the most important factor of all. If we compare this season’s top six percentage of 40.15% to the middle belt of 39.48%, there is almost parity between the two.

We should not ignore the fact that there are two more teams in the middle belt, but for them to collectively pick up nearly as many points as the top bracket while there is also a higher proportion of bottom six points validates how strong the Premier League has been.

Compare that to last season and the middle belt of eight clubs actually picked up more points collectively than the top six but this can be explained by such a low percentage of bottom six – in essence, the middle is taking from the bottom.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS

For much of the last decade, Premier League competitiveness has often been defined by concentration at the top and fragmentation at the bottom. But the 2025/26 season doesn’t quite fit that model.

Now we are seeing something closer to equilibrium across all three bands. The top six are no longer as dominant as their peak consolidation years, the bottom six are no longer as structurally detached as they were in recent seasons and the middle is no longer being squeezed into irrelevance.

In simple terms, the points are spreading out more evenly across the division.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the league is better or worse, but it does mean it is structurally different. Less top-heavy, less bottom-heavy, and more evenly distributed across the entire 20-team ecosystem and that is where the idea of “tightness” becomes more complicated.

Because what we are really measuring here is not just competitiveness in terms of results, but competitiveness in terms of balance. On that metric, this season doesn’t stand out as chaotic or exceptional; instead, it stands out as compressed.

A league where the gaps between tiers have not disappeared but have narrowed enough to change how the season feels from top to bottom and that is what ultimately is driving the perception of a tighter Premier League.

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Is The Premier League Getting Tighter?