Arsenal look to have one hand on the Premier League trophy – but could the Gunners’ remaining opponents still scupper their title aspirations?
Confidence is understandably high in N7, with Mikel Arteta’s side sitting five points clear at the summit ahead of Manchester City’s midweek clash against Crystal Palace.
And even if the Citizens triumph at the Etihad Stadium tomorrow night, Arsenal will still have a two-point cushion and two potentially favourable fixtures to finish the campaign.
A home meeting with already-relegated Burnley is followed by a visit to Selhurst Park, at a time when Oliver Glasner’s outfit may well be distracted by their imminent Conference League final.
Meanwhile, City surely need to end the season with victories over Champions League-chasing Bournemouth (A) and Aston Villa (H) to keep their hopes of top spot alive.
It all looks to be falling into place for the Gunners, then… but might Burnley and Palace actually be tougher opponents than they appear on paper?
We’ve crunched the numbers to find out how the Clarets and the Eagles could still dent Arsenal’s title bid.
Burnley hopes lie in defensive diligence and Flemming’s finishing
It would, of course, be ludicrous to argue that a home clash with Burnley isn’t an ideal fixture for Arsenal at this stage of the season.
Caretaker manager Mike Jackson finds himself in charge of the Lancashire-based side, after former boss Scott Parker paid the price for a dismal run of form that led to relegation from the Premier League.
The Clarets are currently 11 matches without a win in all competitions, losing eight of those games including an embarrassing FA Cup exit to third-tier Mansfield Town.
Their three draws in that run are perhaps notable, though, as they all came against relatively high-ranking opponents.
Burnley claimed a point at Chelsea (1-1) in late February, before holding Bournemouth to a goalless stalemate the following month.
Last weekend’s 2-2 draw at home to Aston Villa raised a few eyebrows, too, despite Unai Emery’s men coming off the back of an energy-sapping Europa League semi-final second leg against Nottingham Forest.
The 19th-placed team have certainly developed a knack for frustrating sides with grander aspirations than themselves – and Manchester City’s narrow 1-0 victory at Turf Moor just a few weeks ago is testament to the difficulties they can cause even the best outfits.
Burnley ceded possession to City on that occasion, having just 34.5% of the ball and defending deep with 30 of their 44 possession regains taking place in the defensive third.
They rode their luck after allowing 28 shots at goal and that strategy ultimately didn’t pay off, after Erling Haaland’s fifth-minute goal proved to be the difference between the teams.
But Jackson may hope that a more effectively executed attempt at parking the bus could yield a better result at the Emirates.
Arsenal will also need to pay close attention to Zian Flemming at the other end of the pitch, with the Dutchman’s strike against Aston Villa last weekend representing his 10th Premier League goal of the season.
Five of those have come in his previous nine outings, while the 27-year-old’s impressive average of 0.56 goals per 90 minutes is only bettered by seven players across the division.
Flemming’s clinical nature is reflected in the fact that he’s outperforming an xG (expected goals) of 0.44 per 90. Gunners fans will hope he doesn’t have his shooting boots on at the Emirates on Monday.
European distractions mask Palace’s multiple threats
Crystal Palace are the final obstacle blocking Arsenal’s path to the title, but conventional wisdom suggests they will have one eye on their Conference League final against Rayo Vallecano just three days later.
It’s certainly true that the previous three English teams outside of the traditional ‘big six’ to play in European finals each lost their last league game of the season, with Middlesbrough (2006), Fulham (2010) and West Ham United (2023) all suffering defeat heading into their respective continental showpieces.
And Crystal Palace's losses ahead of both legs of this season’s semi-final against Shakhtar Donetsk – to Liverpool (1-3) and Bournemouth (0-3) – do little to dispel that hypothesis.
Nonetheless, it’s perfectly conceivable that certain fringe players may up their game against Arsenal, in the hopes of getting on the teamsheet in Leipzig.
They would be following in the path of Jean-Philippe Mateta, who has played his way back into contention for a starting berth after barely featuring in February and the first half of March.
The 28-year-old fell out of favour after the collapse of a proposed mid-season switch to AC Milan but now has three goals and an assist in his last nine games across all competitions, including a 77th-minute equaliser during Sunday’s 2-2 draw with Everton.
Mikel Arteta’s side must be alert to the French dangerman’s physical threat and that of in-form forward Ismaïla Sarr – after all, he has got on the scoresheet three times in his four most recent outings, including in both matches against Shakhtar Donetsk.
Away from individual players, Arsenal will approach their visit to Selhurst Park with a sense of trepidation following a pair of close shaves in previous clashes with Palace this season.
A solitary goal from former Eagle Eberechi Eze was needed to squeeze past Glasner’s side when the teams met at the Emirates, while a League Cup encounter just before Christmas was even closer.
The North Londoners edged that game on penalties after a 1-1 draw in normal time and should at least feel they are aware of Palace’s strengths and weaknesses after two tight encounters.
Those strengths include an impressive aerial threat, with only three teams scoring more than their 10 Premier League goals from headers – though Arsenal are one of those with a division-leading tally of 15.
It’s not the only string to Palace’s bow, however, with chance creation in abundance. They currently rank seventh in the top-flight for big opportunities conjured (66), despite playing a game less than everyone bar Manchester City.
And with the league’s fourth-tightest rearguard (44 goals conceded at 1.26 per 90), they are capable of providing Arsenal with a tough test in both attack and defence on Sunday 24th May.
There is no doubt that the Gunners will be strong favourites against both Burnley and Crystal Palace, but don’t rule out one more twist in the title race before this season concludes.
