Who Will Win the Champions League? What We Learned from the Quarter-Final First Legs
Tom Hancock
It’s half-time in the tie across the four Champions League quarter-finals, with eight sides still battling it out for European club football’s most coveted trophy.
The first legs saw three away wins and just one home win, and two teams will take two-goal advantages into the second leg.
Who will go on to be crowned champions of Europe, though? Here’s what we’ve learned from the quarter-finals so far.
Who Will Win the Champions League?
Tuesday night saw two of the Champions League favourites, Arsenal and Bayern Munich, record narrow but potentially vital first-leg victories on the road.
Arsenal left it late to get the better of Sporting CP, Kai Havertz popping up in the 91st minute to bag the pivotal goal in Lisbon. It came as a much-needed boost for the Gunners, who had lost to Premier League title rivals Manchester City in the EFL Cup final then been dumped out of the FA Cup by Championship Southampton.
Mikel Arteta’s side will hope to follow up with a league win at Bournemouth on Saturday – and if they do, they could end the weekend as many as 12 points ahead of Man City at the Premier League summit, heading into next Wednesday’s second leg against Sporting at the Emirates Stadium.
That recent pair of defeats has had many doubting Arsenal’s resilience as they look to end their 22-year domestic title drought and continue their quest for a maiden Champions League triumph – but this is football; things change quickly: re-gather a bit of momentum and Arsenal might just set themselves up for a very special end to the campaign.
The Gunners are the only side to average under one goal a game conceded in this season’s Champions League – and to tweak a saying from the NFL, defences win championships. They’ve had a knack of scoring important late goals recently, too.
Trailing by a single goal, Sporting can’t be written off – and they’ll have fond memories of their 2022/23 Europa League last-16 win on penalties at the Emirates – but Arsenal have won 20 home games out of 24 in 90 minutes in all competitions this term, losing just once.
Meanwhile, Bayern survived a Real Madrid fightback to edge the tie of the round (on paper and on the pitch, so far) 2-1, Harry Kane moving to 49 goals in what’s already a career-best campaign for him.
Having lost just one of their 26 games in all competitions since going down 3-1 to Arsenal at the Emirates in the Champions League league phase, the Bundesliga leaders are in formidable form and have now racked up an astonishing 148 goals this term – averaging a Champions League-high 3.1 per match.
Bayern do let goals in – they’ve only kept one clean sheet in their last nine outings – but if there’s a team that’s going to overpower the rest en route to Champions League glory, it’s Vincent Kompany’s men.
As for Madrid, they’ll know their task is a tough one: they must win the second leg at the Allianz Arena, where Bayern have been beaten just once in the last 12 months, to as much as force extra time – but, as they prove time and time again, the Champions League is their competition.
Los Blancos are by no means favourites, but equally, no one would be remotely surprised to see them go on and lift the trophy for a record-extending 16th time.
* * *
Wednesday night was a tale of two 2-0 triumphs, with reigning European champions PSG and Atletico Madrid recording them.
Having obliterated Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate in the last 16, PSG faced their next English opponents in the form of Liverpool – and their margin of victory in Paris really ought to have been bigger.
Utterly dominant on their way to inflicting the Reds’ third straight defeat in all competitions, PSG enjoyed 74% of the possession and attempted 18 shots to the visitors’ three, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia stealing the show by living up to his ‘Kvaradona’ nickname yet again.
The Georgian’s goal, the hosts’ second, was a thing of beauty and Luis Enrique will gladly take a repeat at Anfield next Tuesday – but the truth is PSG should have too much for Liverpool even if they’re a little way below their absolute best.
Could Les Parisiens go on to become just the second side, after Real Madrid, to retain the trophy in the Champions League era? Absolutely – and barring an unlikely-looking Liverpool recovery, they’ll be relishing a mouthwatering semi-final encounter with Bayern or Madrid.
We’ve become used to seeing PSG play teams off the park – and we’ve long been accustomed to seeing Diego Simeone Atletico Madrid win with defending of the essence.
Atleti only had five shots totalling 0.45 expected goals (xG) in their all-LaLiga clash against Barcelona, but that’s all they needed for a potentially decisive victory at Camp Nou.
Pau Cubarsi’s red card late in the first half, just before Julian Alvarez put the visitors in front, certainly played its part in the outcome, but Atleti would have been quite content to hold on for 1-0.
Perhaps surprisingly, this was Los Rojiblancos’ first clean sheet in this season’s Champions League – but if they’ve rediscovered their customary defensive doggedness now, it could hardly have come at a better time.
Simeone and co. will be mindful of Barca’s ability to blow teams away with their goalscoring prowess (just ask Newcastle) – and of the LaLiga leaders’ 2-1 league win in Madrid last month, when Atleti themselves had a player sent off in the first half – but it would be fair to say they’ve got one foot in the semis, where an intriguing encounter against Arsenal is on the cards as things stand.
