World Cup Semi Final Odds: Who are the Favourites?

Semi-Final Schedule at a Glance

The World Cup semi-final UK kick-off times on the table above are in UK local time (BST). Both of the matches are scheduled to take place at 8pm on 14 July and on 15 July. After the two semi-final matches, the winners from the fixtures will advance to the World Cup final on 19 July. The teams that lose the semi-finals will also meet for a third-place playoff match on 18 July. For the full breakdown of UK kick-off times, venues, and where to watch, see our World Cup semi-final schedule page.

Outright Favourites for Each Semi-Final

Here are the four last favourites and their outright odds for the semi-finals.

Semi-Final 1: France vs Spain

When France faces Spain in the World Cup 2026 semi-final on 14 July, they are the favourites. That means a win for France in the semi-final match has the shortest World Cup semi-final odds on the board at around 2.3. This is approximately a 43% implied probability. Its To Qualify odds are at 1.6. 

The reasons France is the most favoured are that the team has won two World Cup championship titles and has reached multiple finals. So, their talent in the World Cup semi-final stage is well-established, and their knockout experience spans decades. France is also looking to become the third nation to reach three straight World Cup finals in a row, joining West Germany (1982, 1986, 1990) and Brazil (1994, 1998, 2002). And they can do it by winning against Spain in the semifinals with 2.3 odds

With World Cup semi-final odds of 3.1 to win the match, Spain is a strong contender. The team has won the World Cup trophy once and also won multiple European championships, giving them a strong record in major international tournaments. And in the 2026 World Cup, Spain has been the best defensive team so far, allowing just one goal throughout the entire tournament, which came against Belgium in the World Cup quarter-finals.

So, the World Cup semi-final fixture between France and Spain is a match between Spain’s defence against France’s offence. And the biggest factor in the game will be whether Spain can defend against Kylian Mbappe's performance, and the French team as a whole.

Our World Cup semi-final betting guide covers the most suitable markets for this fixture based on both teams' playing styles.

Semi-Final 2: England vs Argentina

England meets Argentina on Wednesday, 15 July, and the UK kick-off time for the match is set at 8:00pm. Throughout the tournament, both teams have been competitive and advanced to the semi-finals by requiring extra time in their quarter-final matches, so they are both capable of winning in the semi-final.

Markets and bookmakers, however, favour England more, giving it shorter odds of around 2.6 to win the match and 1,7 ‘To Qualify.’ Meanwhile, Argentina has around 3.0 odds to win against England and 2.1 ‘To Qualify.’

Our World Cup outright winner betting guide explains how to read these odds and what implied probability they represent.

So far, England has produced a strong tournament run. It qualified for the semi-final with a 2-1 extra-time win against Norway, and its midfield remains one of its greatest strengths.

Argentina, on the other hand, has required more work to defend its champion throughout the tournament. It even needed extra time in its World Cup quarter-final match to beat Switzerland. And with its star players like Lionel Messi, Julián Álvarez, and Lautaro Martínez, its attack has become more balanced as the tournament has progressed.

What's Shaping the Odds

World Cup semi-final odds are influenced by several factors throughout the tournament. They include;

Squad form

In a domestic league, a single striker in good shape can push the team to the quarter-finals easily. In the World Cup, however, and considering the 2026 extended format, a team needs incredible squad depth to advance through the various World Cup stages. Teams with quality replacements in every position usually have high odds since they are less likely to experience a decline in performance in case a key player is rested. For instance, Argentina can maintain a high-performance level by introducing experienced substitutes without significantly weakening the starting lineup, keeping its betting odds relatively favourable.

Key Players

The form and availability of key players also shape World Cup semi-final odds. This is because key players often determine the team’s performance, and bookmakers will adjust prices based on the strengths and weaknesses of these players.

For instance, if a team relies on one or two key players, it may experience larger swings in odds during the World Cup semi-final match prices than a nation with balanced squads — with Kane, Mbappe, and Messi all still in contention, our World Cup Golden Boot guide is also worth a read for the latest top scorer standings heading into the semis. Let’s look at France, for example; its odds may shorten when Kylian Mbappé is in his top performance because his pace, finishing ability, and experience often increase the team's performance.

Injuries

Injuries to key players affect the team’s strength and tactical planning, which also influences the prices. In case a key player sustains injury or is suspended before the World Cup semi-final kick-off, bookmakers adjust prices to reflect the reduced likelihood of that team winning the match.

In addition, injury news, even a minor fitness concern, influences public betting behaviour. This can also lead to further odds movement. For instance, if England were to lose Harry Kane before a semi-final, the team’s odds would likely lengthen because the team's primary goal-scoring threat would be weakened.

Historical Semi-final Performance

Another factor that drives odds in World Cup semi-finals is the team’s historical semi-final performance. Since the round of eight involves intense pressure, a team that has a history of reaching semi-finals and performing well, such as France, often gets favourable semi-final odds. This is because the market views them as more experienced in high-stakes knockout matches. When placing your bets, however, keep in mind that past performances don’t guarantee the team will perform well in the match.

Could There Be an Upset?

Upsets regularly happen in World Cup semi-finals, sometimes coming from teams even experts didn’t expect. This is because semi-finals are intense knock-out matches where every nation tries its best to advance to the finals. In such conditions, a small mistake can see even a stronger team get eliminated by an underdog.

There are several factors that can contribute to an upset in the 2026 World Cup semi-finals - our World Cup predictions and team analysis guide covers squad depth, form, and potential weaknesses for all the remaining contenders. For instance, a well-organised underdog with a defensive strategy can frustrate a favourite throughout the match. This could force the match to end level after 90 minutes, forcing the match to extra time and penalty shootouts where both teams have a realistic chance of winning. Unforeseen circumstances such as injuries to key players, suspension, and tactical adjustments could also shift the match momentum in the underdog's favour.

Psychological pressure may also affect favourites’ performance. And since underdogs often play with greater freedom and fewer expectations, they could win against an overconfident favourite.

One popular World Cup semi-final upset that caught everyone by surprise is when Croatia defeated England in the 2018 World Cup. Croatia's resilience, tactical discipline, and experience in high-pressure situations enabled them to win 2–1 against England in extra time, despite England being favoured by many analysts before kick-off.

So, whether there could be an upset in the 2026 World Cup semi-finals remains plausible. If an underdog has strong defence, excellent goalkeeping, and confidence, it could eliminate a favourite.

Responsible Gambling

Due to intense pressure and match excitement, World Cup semi-final odds are unpredictable, so you should only bet with money you can afford to lose. You should also treat World Cup semi-final betting as entertainment, not to earn income or profits, or as a way to resolve your financial difficulties. Instead, bet responsibly and remember to have fun. 

Many UK-licensed bookmakers even offer responsible gambling tools that you can use to manage your betting habits. Take advantage of these tools, including deposit limits, loss limits, self-assessments, reality checks, cooling-off periods, and self-exclusion, to stay in control of your betting habits.

When betting on the World Cup, you may develop problems with gambling. If you notice your betting experience is no longer fun, seek help. Some of the most trusted responsible gambling organisations that offer free support and counselling for UK bettors include GamStop, GamCare, and BeGambleAware.