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World Cup Group Stage Analysis – Part 3

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Dan TraceyDan Tracey
Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham Celebrate In England's Win Over Panama
Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham Celebrate In England's Win Over Panama

The newly expanded FIFA World Cup has 72 matches in its Group Stage phase, those six dozen worth of international encounters have now been concluded, and with 16 nations sent home on the first available flight, the field of entrants has now been whittled down to 32.

This is where the Knockout Phase comes into play, and before those 32 nations are whittled down further to 16, it is time to look at the knockout headline stats from the now-completed Group Stage phase of the tournament.

Goals Per Game

Across the opening 72 games of the tournament, a total of 215 goals have been scored. This equates to an average of 2.98 goals per game – an increase from the 2.93 goals per game scored after 48 tournament matches.

Germany’s seven at the expense of Curaçao still serving as the high point of attacking output in the tournament so far. However, there have also been five matches where a total of six goals have been scored.

One of those saw Canada undertake all the attacking work themselves as they placed six past a hapless Qatari side. While Sweden has dished out and also been on the wrong end of 5-1 victories against Tunisia and the Netherlands respectively.

The flurry of goals in North America also means that the current tournament average is higher than the overall figure recorded in 2022. 2.98 this summer goes up against 2.69 four years ago, but with 24 additional matches and a slightly wider gap in terms of competition, this is arguably par for the course.

With the Knockout Phase now on the horizon, it will be interesting to see whether defensive football starts to come out on top as the risk factor for those nations still involved begins to increase further.

Both Teams To Score %

When looking at the scorelines of the 72 games in our data sample, the balance of power has swung further toward attacking football at both ends of the field. After 48 games, the percentage of matches that saw at least a goal for either side was 52% (25 out of 48 matches).

That figure has crept up by a couple of percentage points to 54.1%. This equates to 39 matches from the 72 Group Stage encounters that have taken place. A statistic that certainly lends itself to the viewpoint of a rather entertaining tournament to date, as the safety first approach is out the window.

Over 2.5 Goals %

A statistic that will be of interest to those who are viewing the World Cup through a betting lens and that is the number of games that have finished with over 2.5 goals. Of the 72 sampled, it is now tipping towards those who prefer backing over rather than under.

This means that 40 matches have landed into three or more territory. Not a figure to be unexpected when you consider some of the mismatches that have taken place early on, it will be interesting to see how this percentage figure evolves over the next few weeks.

Considering the average number of goals is just shy of 3.00, the over 2.5 goals statistic may come as no real surprise. 55.56% of matches have cleared this threshold. If it carries through to the Round of 16 and beyond, this tournament is only going to get more exciting.

Team Wins When Scoring First %

It is also good news for those nations that have managed to score first, because if you can draw first blood during the 2026 tournament, your chances of going on to win the game are boosted considerably.

Of the 72 games, there have been 52 wins. 44 of those have seen the nation that opens the scoring then pick up three group stage points. 61.11% hit rate when looking at all fixtures, 84.61% when taking draws out of the equation.

This outcome happened to the Ivory Coast in heartbreaking fashion as Germany came from behind to win 2-1 thanks to a Denis Undav double but the European nation would also fall victim to such circumstances as Ecuador did the same to Julian Nagelsmann’s side in the third cycle of Group Stage matches.

Clean Sheet %

If attacking football has largely been the winner during the opening week of the tournament, then it does not make good reading for those trying to keep the ball out of the net. Clean sheets have largely been at a premium, although the 0-0 count has now increased to seven matches.

After 72 tournament matches, the clean sheet count now stands at 40 (55.56%). With seven stalemates accounting for 14 clean sheets out of those 40, it also means that there have been 26 occasions on which a team has won a Group Stage game without conceding.

Average cards per game

In terms of discipline, a total of 192 cards were shown across the opening 72 games. That equates to an average of 2.66 cards per game. This figure has increased from 2.52 after the first 48 tournament matches, as more teams have now been pulled up by a match referee for ill-discipline.

Ecuador are the current tournament bad boy with eight yellow cards and one red. Their total of nine sits two cards worse off than both Curaçao and Haiti, who each collected a total of seven yellows before their respective exits from the tournament.

Now that the Group Stage is completed, all 48 nations have collected at least one yellow card and there is a collection of eight teams who have a single caution to their name. A collection that contains heavyweights such as France and Germany, along with dark horses Norway and Japan.

One-goal winning margin

Another interesting angle to look at is the margin of winning goals and it should be noted that when teams win, they seem to win by a comfortable distance. Of the 72 games played, there have been 52 wins and of those, just 18 have been by a single-goal margin.

Just 18 of the 72 matches played have been decided by a single goal, accounting for 25% of all fixtures and 34.61% of the 52 matches that produced a winner. That suggests that when games do avoid ending level, they are more likely to open up than remain finely balanced until the final whistle.

The other 34 victories (65.39% of all wins) have come by margins of two goals or more, reinforcing the view that many contests develop into relatively comfortable wins, either because of a clear gap in quality between the sides or because the game becomes increasingly open after the first breakthrough.

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World Cup Group Stage Analysis – Part 3