Spain odds to win World Cup 2026: Probability, path to final, stats and betting tips
Simon Winter
Spain coasted to top spot in Group H with a haul of seven points from a possible nine and seem to be simmering nicely ahead of the World Cup’s knockout phase. Now, it’s time for La Roja to crank up the temperature, but can they deliver?
Winners of Euro 2024, Spain have already shown that they have trophy-lifting pedigree under current coach Luis de la Fuente, however, injury and fitness issues across their frontline are threatening to hamstring their prospects this summer.
Ahead of Spain’s Round of 32 clash with Austria in Inglewood, we take a look at how they’ve performed so far, their possible path to the final, as well as Spain’s odds to win and some World Cup betting tips.
Spain’s Group Stage report card
Group H results:
Spain 0-0 Cape Verde (June 15, Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia (June 21, Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
Spain 1-0 Uruguay (June 26, Estadio Akron)
Spain played an unwitting part in debutants Cape Verde’s World Cup fairy tale on matchday one in Group H, when they failed to break down the resolute minnows in a 0-0 stalemate in Atlanta.
La Roja dominated 74% of the ball and racked up 24 shots, but could only manufacture two big chances and 2.10 in xG, which raised questions about their ability to play their way through low blocks.
Sailing was much smoother against Saudi Arabia a few days later and Spain’s task was made easier by Lamine Yamal’s early goal in the 10th minute. The winger played just 20 minutes as a late sub against Cape Verde, and his inclusion from the start on matchday two sharpened Spain’s attack considerably.
Mikel Oyarzabal, who set Yamal's opener up, also scored twice himself against Saudi Arabia in a 4-0 Spanish success, before La Roja ground out a 1-0 triumph over a dogged Uruguay in Zapopan to cap their group campaign.
Spain scored their decisive goal from their only shot on target against Uruguay, and lost wingers Yeremy Pino and Nico Williams to tournament-ending injuries in what proved a taxing contest.
At the close of business in the World Cup’s group stage, Spain topped the charts for average possession per game (69.4%), while they were one of only two teams (alongside Mexico) to claim clean sheets in all three group fixtures.
La Roja ranked all the way down in 11th out of 48 teams for expected goals (5.83) however, with “sterile possession” and “lack of cutting edge” the side notes in the column on their campaign copybook.
Spain’s potential path to the final of FIFA World Cup 2026
Round of 32: Austria (July 2, Los Angeles)
Round of 16: Portugal or Croatia (July 6, Arlington)
Quarter Finals: USA, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium or Senegal (July 10, Los Angeles)
Semi Finals: France, Paraguay, Morocco, Canada (July 14, Arlington)
In the Round of 32 in LA, Spain will fancy their chances of beating an Austrian side that shipped two goals per game in the group stage, and De La Fuente’s side have been priced as short as 3/10 with LiveScoreBet to prevail there.
If, as expected, the Spanish deliver, the winner of Portugal’s encounter of Croatia will await in the Round of 16 in Arlington. Most neutrals will want to see an Iberian Derby between Spain and their neighbours.
Portugal bested Spain on penalties in the final of the 2025 Nations League when the rivals last crossed paths in a fixture where La Roja controlled 61% of the ball. That was one of only six Portuguese victories in 41 previous meetings between the sides.
Four potential quarter-final opponents still exist for Spain at the time of writing, and they would be strong favourites in any match-up against either co-hosts USA, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium or Senegal.
If current tournament form remains steady, Spain would almost certainly be in line to face France in the semi finals in Arlington later this month however.
Les Bleus have been blowing opponents away this summer, though Spain have beaten them twice relatively recently, once in the semi-finals of Euro 2024 (2-1) and again in the semis of the Nations League (5-4) last year.
Spain’s Outright odds to win the World Cup
Favourite France’s odds in the 2026 World Cup outright winner markets were slashed after their emphatic 3-0 win over Sweden in the Round of 32, leaving Spain, along with a clutch of other chasers, at a busy price point further back.
At 7/1, Spain represent decent value to win a World Cup title for the first time since 2010, especially having proven their mettle at Euro 2024 through a tough knockout fixture gauntlet against Germany, France and England.
Defending champions Argentina remain second-favourites (17/4), with England sitting on the same price as Spain and Brazil (10/1), Portugal (12/1) and Morocco (22/1) coming up behind. From a probability angle, Spain’s chances are hovering at around 12.5%, with their placement on the tougher side of the draw, as well as France’s formidable form, both factors there.
Still, despite relatively low market confidence, this is a Spanish side that has lost only one of its last 33 assignments and has reached the final of the last two tournaments it entered.
Back Spain to win the World Cup at 7/1 with LiveScoreBet
Spain World Cup predictions: how far will they go?
Spain’s ambitions this summer will be impacted by the loss to injury of Yeremy Pino and Nico Williams, and those absences will heap even more pressure on the teenage shoulders of Lamine Yamal.
Still dealing with fitness issues of his own, Yamal has seen his minutes managed so far. He clearly isn’t up to top speed, and with the Barcelona starlet lacking his usual dynamism, and Spain missing bodies and pace on the other flank, creating chances and scoring goals are likely to be problematic.
Spain have looked solid defensively and are yet to concede, while few midfields can control a game better than their pivot of Pedri and Rodri. However, their star quality in attack looks a little dim, especially when measured against the individual talent in France’s stable of forwards.
La Roja are unlikely to end their wait for a first World Cup in 16 years this summer, and it might make sense to back them to earn a top four finish with LiveScoreBet at 11/8, with a semi-final elimination at the hands of France a likely exit point.
Spain beat Les Bleus 5-4 in the Nations League semis last year, though Yamal and Nico Williams provided three goals between them on that occasion. With that duo off colour and out of action respectively, the outcome should be different in any World Cup rematch.
World Cup bet builder tips for Spain
Finally, we’ve lined up some advice to take to the football bet builder markets for Spain’s remaining World Cup fixtures:
Player shots on target
Often underappreciated outside Spain, Mikel Oyarzabal performs as an accomplished number nine for his country and the 29-year-old, who has been averaging 4.71 shots and 1.71 shots on target per 90 minutes at the World Cup, is often underpriced in this market.
Ferran Torres also offers decent prospects when introduced as an impact substitute. His pace and clever running can expose tired defenders, and the 26-year-old registered shots off the bench against both Saudi Arabia and Uruguay.
Player fouls
Rodri, who committed four fouls across three appearances in Group H, seems like the obvious pick here, but bettors should consider Alex Baena as an alternative, potentially at sharper prices.
The Atletico Madrid midfielder should see plenty of action on the flanks in the absence of some injured teammates and he is easily more combative than Spain’s other options on the flanks. Baena committed a bone-crunching four fouls against Uruguay in La Roja’s final group match.
Corner markets
Few teams can match Spain when it comes to domination of possession and territory, and high corner counts are usually a byproduct of their ability to control matches.
Spain ran up an aggregate corner count of 23-3 against their Group H rivals, Cape Verde (11-1), Saudi Arabia (6-1) and Uruguay (6-1), and they are likely to outperform most opponents in the corner kick stakes for the rest of the World Cup.
That means that backing Spain in the total corners and corner handicap markets could offer a decent route to profit this summer.
