Much of the discourse around Portugal at the 2026 World Cup has centred around Cristiano Ronaldo and whether or not the veteran’s inclusion is hampering the team’s chances this summer. Can their captain and all-time leading scorer really spearhead a World Cup-winning team at 41?

Portugal were considered dark horses to triumph across the Atlantic, however, they’ve failed to deliver on their pre-tournament promise, with a series of stuttering early performances consigning them to second place in Group K behind Colombia.

Ahead of a challenging Round of 32 encounter with Croatia, we scrutinise the Seleção’s group phase displays, their possible route to the final as well as Portugal’s odds to win the World Cup outright, with some free World Cup betting tips for Roberto Martinez’s side included.

Portugal’s Group Stage report card

Group K results:

• Portugal 1-1 DR Congo (June 17, NRG Stadium)

• Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan (June 23, NRG Stadium)

• Portugal 0-0 Colombia (June 27, Hard Rock Stadium)

Portugal’s listless work in the attacking third on matchday one in Group K against DR Congo set early alarm bells ringing. They took an early lead in Houston through Joao Neves, though his early effort turned out to be the only strike on target a shot-shy Portuguese outfit could muster.

A lofty 75% possession figure yielded only 0.65 in xG against some determined Congolese markers, while Cristiano Ronaldo was a figure of hindrance rather than inspiration at the tip, touching the ball just 25 times, while making a meal of some presentable opportunities to threaten.

Determined to bite back against the post-match critics, the elder statesman scored twice on matchday two in a 5-0 rout of a sub-par Uzbekistan, though Ronaldo and Portugal are unlikely to face opposition as weak as the White Wolves again this summer.

The issues that plagued Portugal against DR Congo bubbled to the surface again in a 0-0 draw with Colombia on matchday three. With Ronaldo ineffective once more, the Portuguese could only land two shots on target from an xG of 0.92. This time, Ronaldo touched the ball just twice in Colombia’s penalty area.

It feels unfair to make Ronaldo the solitary lightning rod for criticism, however. Bruno Fernandes, Pedro Neto, Bernardo Silva, Joao Felix and Rafal Leao have all underperformed too, delivering just one goal and two assists between them so far. Portugal need them to join the party soon.

At the close of play in Group H, second-placed Portugal progressed unbeaten with five points to set up their Round of 32 tussle with Croatia. Out of all 48 competing teams across 12 groups, Portugal ranked 16^th for total xG (5.10) and manufactured fewer expected goals than sides like the USA, Senegal, Turkey and Ecuador.

Portugal’s potential path to the final of FIFA World Cup 2026

• Round of 32: Croatia (July 2, Toronto)

• Round of 16: Spain or Austria (July 6, Arlington)

• Quarter Finals: USA, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium or Senegal (July 10, Los Angeles)

• Semi Finals: France, Paraguay, Morocco, Canada (July 14, Arlington)

Portugal’s next hurdle is against Croatia in the Round of 32, and though they will kick that tie off as well-backed favourites, progress past the Vatreni is far from guaranteed.

The teams have met three times since the start of 2024, with Croatia winning once (2-1), Portugal winning another (2-1) and the other fixture ending all square (1-1). Both teams scored on each occasion and margins were slim on each occasion.

If Roberto Martinez’s side squeeze past the Croatians, they are likely to be paired with Iberian neighbours Spain in the Round of 16, in a rematch of the 2025 Nations League Final, which, of course, Portugal won on spot kicks.

A decidedly easier set of possible opponents (on paper) would await in the quarter-final stage if Portugal can get another one over their chief Spanish antagonists. They would expect to outclass the USA, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Senegal and even a wilting Belgium in LA on July 10^th.

With France likely to provide significant roadblocking Arlington, that might be as good as it gets for the Portuguese however, who are priced at 9/4 to reach the semi-finals with LiveScoreBet.

On current form, Les Bleus seem primed to roar to World Cup glory unobstructed and they have also traditionally been a bogey side for Portugal on the international stage. In the last 22 encounters between the nations since the mid-1940s, Portugal have been beaten a whopping 17 times.

Portugal’s Outright odds to win the World Cup

A glance at the latest 2026 World Cup outright winner markets shows Portugal listed as fifth favourites to lift the trophy at a meaty price of 12/1.

France continue to attract the most money there and have been backed into 2/1 in the outright World Cup stakes following their demolition of Sweden (3-0) in the Round of 32. In contrast, Portugal’s odds to win the World Cup have been informed by a string of sluggish showings in the group stage.

Behind the French, defending champions Argentina are firm second-favourites (17/4), with England and Spain further back at 7/1, and Brazil just ahead of Portugal at 12/1. Morocco, who made history when finishing fourth in Qatar four years ago, are next in line at odds of 22/1.

The probability of Portugal winning the 2026 World Cup sits at just 7.7%, a figure that tells its own story. Despite having PFA Player of the Year Bruno Fernandes, and Champions League-winning trio Vitinha, Joao Neves and Nuno Mendes in tow, there is little confidence about Portugal’s prospects.

Back Portugal to win the World Cup at 7/1 with LiveScoreBet

Portugal World Cup predictions: how far will they go?

With the Cristiano Ronaldo conundrum unlikely to be solved this summer, Portugal would do well to emulate the run to the World Cup quarter-finals that they produced four years ago.

Roberto Martinez cannot drop his skipper, nor does he intend to. When quizzed about the prospect, he said: “We need a player who can create space, and Cristiano is the best at doing that. The statistics confirm it. He is an icon. Those movements and the way he creates space ultimately make him the final piece that completes our strategy.”

With Portugal’s entire attacking gameplan built around funnelling the ball towards Ronaldo, the veteran’s talented supporting cast are likely to continue to suffer. DR Congo and Colombia found it easy to stifle Portugal’s Plan A in the group stage, and Martinez doesn’t seem to have a fallback.

Portugal also looked vulnerable enough at the back against Colombia in the group stage to suggest they might be pulled apart by higher-calibre opponents in the latter rounds. The Colombians racked up 24 attempts in that encounter, and recorded almost double Portugal’s xG (1.70 to 0.90).

While Vitinha and Joao Neves have midfield locked down, the units behind and ahead of them aren’t functioning properly, so expect Portugal’s stateside adventure to end soon. Portugal’s odds to win the World Cup aren’t really worth considering.

World Cup bet builder tips for Portugal

Finally, we’ve lined up some pointers to take to the bet builder markets for Portugal’s remaining World Cup fixtures:

Player shots on target

Cristiano Ronaldo, who has been averaging 4.33 shots and 2.00 shots on target per 90 minutes at the World Cup so far, dominates the metrics, though you have to set big ambitions for the 41-year-old to find value, and generally, there are more worthwhile alternatives.

Joao Felix, for example, had three shots in each of his two group phase starts against Uzbekistan and Colombia, while Bruno Fernandes landed a shot on target in the same games.

Player fouls

Joao Cancelo is your go-to option here. The 32-year-old committed two fouls against DR Congo and another two against Uzbekistan in his first two World Cup outings this summer. The fullback is a foul-first-ask-questions-later kind of defender, who averaged 2.24 and 1.83 fouls per 90 across his last two club campaigns.

Renato Veiga, Nuno Mendes, Vitinha, Pedro Neto and Ruben Dias have all committed three fouls each at the World Cup so far, though Man City’s Dias has played the fewest minutes from that troop, making him the worst offender from a per 90 basis.

Drawing fouls

Portugal have been drawing 12.0 fouls per game on average from their opponents at the World Cup so far and several players in their ranks tend to draw plenty of mistimed challenges from frustrated markers.

Flying left back Nuno Mendes has drawn nine fouls so far this summer, so it might be worthwhile to line up opposing team’s right wingers in the individual player foul market.

Likewise, Bruno Fernandes, who has drawn five fouls, is usually tracked by defensive midfielders. Opposing anchormen are the ones to back in the over 1.5 and over 2.5 fouls markets when Fernandes is involved.