Australia’s chances of reaching the knockout stages of the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be decided during the final round of group games, with the Socceroos likely only needing a draw against Paraguay to secure qualification.
The hype train carrying Tony Popovic’s men from their opening win against Turkey came to a grinding halt after losing 2-0 to the United States last time out, missing out on their chance to secure top spot in Group D.
Instead, the Socceroos will discover their fate during or at the end of matchday three, depending on the result of their encounter with a plucky Paraguay side fresh from frustrating the Turks themselves.
Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Australia’s date with destiny…
Where to watch Paraguay vs Australia
Date: Thursday June 25 (local) / Friday June 26 (Australia)
Stadium: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, United States
Kick-off time: 7:00pm (June 25, local) / 12:00pm AEST (June 26, Australia)
TV channel/stream: Broadcast: SBS and SBS On Demand
Looking for the perfect place to watch the Socceroos? Head to your local TAB venue and get behind Australia as they take on Paraguay. Find your nearest venue via the TAB locator.
Form
Australia’s defeat to the USA was their first loss in 11 competitive games - a run that stretched all the way back to 2024. They have not been defeated in two successive competitive matches since March 2022, when they were beaten by Japan and Saudi Arabia in qualifiers for the World Cup later that year.
Meanwhile, Paraguay’s surprise victory against Turkey continued their streak of not losing back-to-back games since their elimination from the 2024 Copa America. Gustavo Alfaro’s men have won three of their five games across all competitions in 2026, though none have been consecutive.
Head-to-head
This will be the first meeting between Australia and Paraguay at a major tournament, though they have faced off in five friendlies before. The Socceroos have won three and drawn two of those encounters, with their most recent, all the way back in October 2010, ending in a 1-0 Aussie win courtesy of a goal from Dave Carney.
Despite that historical advantage, TAB has Australia as the outsider at $4.00, with Paraguay favoured at $2.80 and the draw priced at $2.25.
Team news
There will be pressure on Popovic to recall Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe to the starting XI after dropping them for the USA defeat. Irankunda and Metcalfe scored the goals in the win against Turkey but were surprisingly relegated to the bench to face the co-hosts. They were introduced at half-time with Australia already 2-0 down and were unable to help them claw their way back into the contest. The experienced Mathew Leckie is also facing a race against time to prove his fitness having come off in the second half.
Irankunda looms as a key attacking threat if recalled, with TAB pricing the youngster at $9 to open the scoring against Paraguay.
The headline news out of the Paraguay camp is they will be without talisman Miguel Almiron, who was the first player ever to be sent off for covering their mouth while talking to an opposition player, resulting in a theatrical VAR decision during their own triumph over the Turks. Brighton’s Diego Gomez is struggling with a knee problem and will be a late decision.
Match insights
What Australia need to qualify for World Cup knockout stages
Do you want the short answer or the long answer?
The simplest one is Australia will definitely be heading to the last 32 as runners up in Group D if they avoid defeat to Paraguay. No fuss, no worries.
A loss makes it a lot more complicated. Since the eight best third-placed teams out of twelve also advance to the next phase, there’s scope for Australia to lose narrowly and still make it through by virtue of a decent goal difference, which currently sits at zero.
However, they wouldn’t know for sure of their place until every other group has wrapped up, with the final lot of fixtures coming on Sunday/Monday.
How will Australia set up?
Given the Socceroos don’t even need to win this match, you can expect Popovic to set his team out as usual, defending behind the ball and looking for the opportune moments to spring forth into attack.
This, however, will be easier to pull off if indeed Irankunda and Metcalfe are restored to the starting XI, switching back to the winning formula that served Australia so well when they beat Turkey in Vancouver.
Who are Paraguay’s danger men?
If Gomez isn’t fit enough to play, the onus will fall to Julio Enciso, the former Brighton star now at Strasbourg in France, to deliver for Paraguay. Matias Galarza and Mauricio have scored their other goals so far this tournament, while veteran striker Antonio Sanabria is yet to discover his shooting boots and was dropped for the Turkey win.
Will Australia advance?
That’s the million dollar question. We’ll go out on a limb and say it’s incredibly unlikely that Australia won’t, at the very least, be among the best ranked third-place teams come the end of matchday three and the Socceroos will play their part in another knockout phase of a World Cup.
It’s now on Popovic and his squad to prove us right.
*Odds correct as of 23/06/26
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