The Netherlands host Finland in Amsterdam on Sunday at 17:00 BST, aiming to extend their strong run in Group G and edge closer to World Cup qualification. The Dutch enter as heavy favourites, underpinned by dominant form and a perfect head-to-head record. Finland arrive hoping to defy the odds with ample experience and youthful energy following a patchy qualifying campaign.
Team form
Ronald Koeman’s side have been in imperious form against Finland specifically, winning their last four encounters by an aggregate score of 11-2. The Oranje have averaged over two goals per qualifier and recently demolished Malta 8-0. Memphis Depay and Cody Gakpo remain the chief threats going forward, while the squad's depth has shone through despite several injuries.
Finland, under new head coach Jacob Friis, sit third in Group G after picking up seven points from five matches. Their form makes for underwhelming reading, though, with the Finns winless in their last three home internationals and boasting just one victory in five home World Cup qualifiers. Recent draws suggest they're difficult to break down, but a lack of cutting-edge remains their Achilles' heel. Joel Pohjanpalo is their main danger man, though he'll need plenty of service if Finland are to trouble the Dutch.
Head-to-head
The Netherlands have dominated Finland in recent meetings, winning all of their last four clashes. The Finns haven't tasted victory in 12 encounters stretching back several decades, and their last fixture ended 2-0 to the Dutch courtesy of goals from Depay and Denzel Dumfries. Over those four most recent meetings, the Netherlands have scored 11 goals while conceding just two.
Team news
The Netherlands are without Bart Verbruggen, Jurrien Timber, Brian Brobbey, and several others due to injury or fitness concerns. There is positive news, though, with Nathan Aké returning to compete for a starting berth at left-back. Justin Kluivert, Xavi Simons, Gakpo, and Wout Weghorst bolster the attacking options.
Finland are missing Roman Eremenko through injury, but boast plenty of top-level experience in Lukas Hradecky, Teemu Pukki, Pohjanpalo, and Robin Lod. Midfielders Matias Siltanen and Tommi Jyry have earned their first senior call-ups, though neither is expected to start.
Key stats
The Netherlands have averaged 2.2 goals per game across their last five matches, compared to Finland's 0.8
The Dutch have scored three or more goals in three of their last four home fixtures against Finland
Finland have lost three consecutive matches at home, conceding at least twice on each occasion
Pre-match odds give the Netherlands around a 75% chance of victory
Prediction
The Netherlands' attacking firepower and home advantage should prove decisive. Finland remain reasonably solid at the back, but they'll need heroics from Hradecky and a clinical display from Pohjanpalo to spring an upset. Koeman's side are expected to dominate possession and create a steady stream of opportunities, moving another step closer to securing their place at the 2026 World Cup with a composed performance in Amsterdam.
Finland may frustrate the hosts for spells, but the Dutch have far too much quality and should cruise to another routine victory.
Predicted result: Netherlands 3-0 Finland
