Mexico have reached the first knockout round - and gone no further - in seven of the last eight World Cups
Ecuador reached the knockout stage for the only time in 2006
Recommended bet: Mexico to win 1-0 Correct Score @ 22/5
Score prediction: Mexico 1-0 Ecuador
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Date, kick-off time, stadium, competition
Wednesday, July 1, 02:00 BST at the Azteca Stadium, Mexico City – World Cup round of 32
Where to watch
ITV, livescorebet.com,virginbet.com
Outright odds
See the latest Mexico vs Ecuador odds on LiveScore Bet
Team news
Mexico head coach Javier Aguirre is set to recall Guadalajara midfielder Bryan Gutierrez in what should be one of two changes from the team which beat Czech Republic 3-0 in their final Group A game.
Gutierrez sat out that game having been booked against South Africa, ensuring he could not pick up another yellow and face a suspension.
The other switch will see Raul Jimenez return to lead the line after being rested against the Czechs with qualification having been secured with a game to spare.
There are plenty of calls for giant Union Saint-Gilloise striker Kevin Rodriguez to start for Ecuador after he came off the bench and ruffled German feathers in the South American side's magnificent 2-1 win on Thursday.
However, Enner Valencia looks undroppable, while Gonzalo Plata grabbed the winning goal against Julian Nagelsmann's men.
AC Milan's Pervis Estupinan, one of the superstars of Ecuador, is fit but there is not an obvious slot in Sebastian Beccacece's starting XI for him.
The stats
The last three meetings between Mexico and Ecuador have all ended in draws.
Mexico are unbeaten in 11 internationals in 2026, winning nine and drawing the other two.
Ecuador's 1-0 defeat by Ivory Coast in the first round of Group C fixtures was their sole defeat in the last 22 outings.
Mexico are one of only two teams - Argentina being the other - to have won all three group-stage games without conceding a single goal.
Ten of Ecuador's last 16 matches have been draws, six of them 0-0s.
Ecuador averaged 22 tackles per game in the group phase - only Paraguay (23.3) put in more.
See the latest Mexico vs Ecuador odds on LiveScore Bet
Prediction
Mexico and Ecuador know plenty about each other having met four times since 2021 - and the fact that the last three of those meetings ended in draws suggests there really is not a lot between them.
Two-time quarter-finalists Mexico will certainly hope to use home advantage to their favour as they seek to end their first knockout round blindspot - they have gone out at this stage in seven of the last eight World Cups.
And they will step out at the Azteca with spirits sky high after three wins to nil in Group A.
Indeed, they were through as group winners after just two rounds which meant Javier Aguirre could rest one or two of his stalwarts.
And they played their final game against the Czechs a day ahead of Ecuador's group-stage finale against Germany, a sapping 2-1 success for the South Americans, which booked their place in the next phase.
There seems to be much in Mexico's favour though there are two nagging doubts.
The first is that Mexico, despite the group success, are not playing that well, and were certainly blessed with a decent group-stage draw.
The second is that Ecuador simply do not know they are beaten and are also incredibly difficult to break down.
Ecuador do not score many goals which has to be a negative, will still be recovering from the Germany game and are away.
They will not mind the altitude - they play at an even higher bolthole in Quito - but do they have the tools to unlock Aguirre's miserly defence?
The hunch is 'no' but that if Mexico win, it is close and low-scoring.
Score prediction: Mexico 1-0 Ecuador
Back Mexico to Win 1-0 Correct Score @ 22/5 with LiveScore Bet
