The ‘new manager bounce’ is one of the most talked-about phenomena in football, a point of great discussion whenever a club changes their manager in the hope of changing their fortunes on the pitch.
But is the ‘new manager bounce’ real? Or is it just another one of football’s myriad of cliches?
After Premier League strugglers Tottenham and Nottingham Forest both appointed new bosses in their efforts to avoid relegation, we’ve delved into what the data says.
What Is the 'New Manager Bounce'?
The ‘new manager bounce’ refers to the supposed effect of a team’s results markedly improving immediately after the appointment of a new manager.
Whenever a side endures a sustained run of poor form, it’s invariably the man in the dugout that takes the fall.
And the ideal scenario, of course, is that the sacked boss’ replacement delivers a swift upturn in results.
Is the ‘New Manager Bounce’ Real?
Let’s take a look at recent Premier League seasons and whether a change in the dugout tends to bring about on-field improvement.
Excluding the recent appointments of new Spurs and Forest gaffers Igor Tudor and Vitor Pereira, these are the managerial switches that have happened in the English top flight this term, and the respective clubs’ five-game league records before and after:
Club | Old manager & Points from Last 5 PL Games | New Manager & Points from First 5 PL Games |
|---|---|---|
Nottingham Forest | Nuno Espirito Santo (4)* | Ange Postecoglou (1) |
West Ham | Graham Potter (3) | Nuno Espirito Santo (4) |
Wolves | Vitor Pereira (2) | Rob Edwards (0) |
Chelsea | Enzo Maresca (6) | Liam Rosenior (13) |
Manchester United | Ruben Amorim (6) | Michael Carrick (13) |
*Last 5 games began with final game of 2024/25 season **Had interim manager take charge of at least one PL game between permanent managers
While Chelsea and Manchester United saw the desired improvement when their European pushes were stuttering – perhaps an indication that a better squad is more conducive to ‘new manager bounce’, which would seem perfectly logical – the three relegation-threated sides did not.
Forest and Wolves both fared worse at the start of their new bosses’ reigns, while West Ham experienced a negligible uptick – though they have lost only one of their last eight matches in all competitions, maybe proof that patience pays dividends in this regard.
To get a bigger sample, let’s also see how common the ‘new manager bounce’ was in the previous two Premier League campaigns – again comparing the old manager’s last five games with the new boss’ first five:
2024-2025
Club | Old Manager & Points from Last 5 PL Games | New Manager & Points from First 5 PL Games |
|---|---|---|
Man United* | Erik ten Hag (5) | Ruben Amorim (7) |
Leicester | Steve Cooper (4) | Ruud van Nistelrooy (4) |
Wolves | Gary O'Neil (3) | Vitor Pereira (7) |
Southampton* | Russell Martin (1) | Ivan Juric (0) |
West Ham | Julen Lopetegui (5) | Graham Potter (4) |
Everton | Sean Dyche (3) | David Moyes (9) |
Southampton | Ivan Juric (1) | Simon Rusk (2)** |
*Had interim manager take charge of at least one PL game between permanent managers **Interim manager until end of season
2023-24
Club | Old Manager & Points from Last 5 PL Games | New Manager & Points from First 5 PL Games |
|---|---|---|
Sheffield United | Paul Heckingbottom (4) | Chris Wilder (4) |
Nottingham Forest | Steve Cooper (1) | Nuno Espirito Santo (6) |
Crystal Palace | Roy Hodgson (4)* | Oliver Glasner (5) |
*Resigned
So, out of the 10 instances of Premier League clubs changing managers across the 2023/24 and 2024/25 seasons – of which Southampton accounted for two – only three resulted in a discernible ‘new manager bounce’, Everton enjoying the biggest boost under the returning David Moyes.
Appointing new bosses with just 12 games remaining this term, Spurs and Forest both needed a quick ‘new manager bounce’ – but these numbers would suggest that the phenomenon is, in fact, something of a myth.
