Though the postseason is already underway, the real action begins tomorrow. Tonight, the last two seeds in the NBA Playoffs will be set in stone, meaning the chase for the Larry O'Brien Trophy can begin. From April 18th until mid-June, 16 teams will be whittled down to just one as the league crowns a 2026 NBA Champion. Obviously, the final seeds in each conference have not been locked in, but that's not going to stop us from picking an NBA Finals winner.
First Round
East
#1 Detroit Pistons vs. #8 Charlotte Hornets OR #8 Orlando Magic
The Detroit Pistons play bully ball, as proven by the fact that they have the fifth-best defensive rating in the NBA since the 2026 All-Star Break (110.7). Regardless of whether they face the Hornets or the Magic, Detroit should win this series. Since the league adopted the current Play-In Tournament format during the 2020-21 season, the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference is 7-17, and four of those wins came when the Miami Heat beat the Milwaukee Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo in the 2023 Playoffs. I believe the Hornets will put up a better fight than the Magic, but this thing shouldn't end up going more than six games either way.
Pistons win the series 4-2
#2 Boston Celtics vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers
This is a nightmare matchup for the Sixers. Not only will this be Philly's first action this year against a Boston team with Jayson Tatum on the court, but they’ll also be going into this series without Joel Embiid, in all likelihood, since the 76ers have not yet announced a recovery timeline for the former MVP. The Celtics managed to split the season series against the Sixers WITHOUT Jayson Tatum. I can only imagine they will beat the brakes off Philly with him in the lineup and Joel Embiid not on the court. The 76ers will be lucky to win one game in the first round of the NBA playoffs.
Celtics win the series 4-1
#3 New York Knicks vs. #6 Atlanta Hawks
Trading away point guard Trae Young might have been the best decision the Hawks have made in a while. Since completing that move, Atlanta has had the seventh-best record in the NBA (29-15). This not only led to defensive improvements, but the offense has been really good too recently, with a 121.7 rating since March 1st. The problem for Atlanta is that New York has basically been as good offensively as the Hawks while being a better defensive group that allows five fewer points per game. We know that the Knicks' Jalen Brunson will elevate his performance in the playoffs. We cannot confidently say the same thing about the Hawks' Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jalen Johnson, who - despite putting up career highs in points per game this season - have never averaged more than ten points per game in the postseason. New York's experience will guide them to the second round.
Knicks win the series 4-2
#4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #5 Toronto Raptors
As usual, the Cavs' strength is their offense, but the Raps come into this series with the ninth-best defensive rating in the NBA since the All-Star Break (112.7). During that stretch, Toronto has also been great at passing the ball, averaging the fifth-most assists per game in the NBA (29.8). That has been a weak spot for the Cavs' defense, which has allowed the 14th-most assists per game in the league since All-Star Weekend (27.3). Call me crazy, but I like the Raptors in this series. All of the pressure is on Cleveland, namely, star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell, who has never made it past the second round of the playoffs despite reaching the postseason eight consecutive times. We know that James Harden struggles in the playoffs, and that will make Mitchell's life that much harder. The Cavaliers will not only lose this series, but their early exit should lead to major changes in Cleveland.
Raptors win the series 4-3
West
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #8 Phoenix Suns or #8 Golden State Warriors
The Thunder are the cream of the crop in the NBA this season. They've been a juggernaut all year long and have the best defensive rating in the league since All-Star Weekend (107.6). That will create matchup problems for both the Suns and the Warriors, who rank 17th and 18th, respectively, in terms of offensive rating during that stretch (114.9 and 114.4). Simultaneously, the Suns are 28th in scoring since the All-Star Break, while the Warriors are 27th in that category. In all likelihood, Golden State will win the Play-In Game tonight and be the eighth seed in the West. They’ll be a tougher out than Phoenix, but OKC's bench depth will give them the spark needed to outperform Golden State when Steph Curry is on the sidelines. After all, the Thunder are seventh in the league in bench scoring since the beginning of March (45 points per game).
Thunder win the series 4-2
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #7 Portland Trail Blazers
After their impressive 11-point comeback victory over the Phoenix Suns, the Trail Blazers earned a spot in the NBA Playoffs for the first time in five years. Portland won that game because they were better inside, with more rebounds and points in the paint than Phoenix. That would probably explain why forward Deni Avdija finished the evening with 41 points. Avdija has played well against San Antonio this season, averaging 31.7 points in three matchups, but those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt because Victor Wembanyama didn't play in any of those games. With Wemby manning the middle, Deni Avdija will not be nearly as effective as he was against Phoenix. More importantly, the Spurs have a 110 defensive rating with Wembanyama on the court, which is the third-best mark in the NBA. San Antonio’s defense will be too much for Portland to handle.
Spurs win the series 4-1
#3 Denver Nuggets vs. #6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Despite the Nuggets being the best offensive team in the NBA (122.1 points per game), Minnesota has gone toe-to-toe with Denver recently, with a 5-3 record against the Nuggets since the start of last season. The T-Wolves even won the final regular-season matchup between these squads 117-108. Since then, though, Denver has the third-best winning percentage in the NBA (.810) and a 17-4 record. Meanwhile, Minnesota ranks 14th in the league in defense during that stretch, allowing 114.9 points per game. We also have to admit that the Timberwolves are limping into the playoffs after going 4-5 in their final nine games of the regular season. Minnesota may be built to stop Denver, but the Nuggets are playing arguably the best basketball in the NBA right now. It would be foolish to bet against Denver in the first round of the postseason, regardless of who their opponent is.
Nuggets win the series 4-3
#4 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #5 Houston Rockets
If the Lakers were healthy, then LA would be the obvious pick in this series. Unfortunately for the Los Angeles faithful, that's not the case. Even though Luka Doncic is back from his treatment in Spain, there's still a chance he will miss some games in this series. Plus, the team's number-two scorer, Austin Reaves, is expected to miss the first round of the playoffs. LeBron James is not a young man. He cannot will his team to a playoff series victory, especially against a Rockets squad that is fourth in the NBA in scoring defense (110 points per game allowed). LA might be able to steal a game at home, but Houston should be moving on to the next round.
Rockets win the series 4-1
Conference Semifinals
East
#1 Detroit Pistons vs. #5 Toronto Raptors
Toronto has made it this far because they're unselfish and play up-tempo basketball. The Raptors led the league in fast-break points per game (18.9) and finished the year ranked third in passing (29.5 assists per game). Unfortunately, that style plays into the Pistons' strengths. Detroit allows the fourth-fewest fastbreak points per game this season (13.4). Also, the Pistons have held their opponents to the fewest assists per game in the NBA (23.5). Toronto is not going to be able to do whatever it wants offensively against a Detroit team that has the fourth-best defensive rating in the NBA since the beginning of March (111). The open passing lanes that the Raptors had against Cleveland will not be there against Detroit. After that, it's on Cade Cunningham to take over the series, which I fully expect him to do. If he averages over 26.5 points per game in this matchup, then the Pistons should advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Pistons win the series 4-2
#2 Boston Celtics vs. #3 New York Knicks
Boston is out for blood in the 2026 NBA Playoffs. First, they'll beat the Sixers' brains in. Then, they'll have a shot at redemption after last year's embarrassment in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, when the Knicks won 4-2, and Jayson Tatum was lost for the season to a ruptured Achilles. Despite the fact that this is New York's all-or-nothing year, they only finished the campaign with two more regular-season wins than last year. Though the Knickerbockers won the season series against Boston 3-1, they have yet to face the Celtics this year when Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were on the court at the same time. Both of these squads are elite defensively, so this series will come down to which team's stars do a better job of taking over the game. I have faith in Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Jalen Brunson, but I'm wary of Karl-Anthony Towns, whose numbers have always regressed in the postseason. That fact, coupled with the Celtics' revenge tour mentality, has me favoring Boston.
Celtics win the series 4-2
West
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Houston Rockets
A case could be made that the Rockets have a better starting five than the Thunder. After all, Houston's starting five leads the NBA in points per game this season (87.6). On top of that, the Rockets are the best team in the league on the boards, averaging 48.1 rebounds per game. OKC has not excelled in that area, considering they’re 15th in rebounds since the 2026 All-Star Break (1,173). At the end of the day, though, when playoff teams are evenly matched, the squad with the better bench usually moves on. The Thunder have the eighth-most bench points in the NBA this season (3,428), while the Rockets have the fewest bench points in the league (2,267). OKC has scored 1,161 more bench points than the Rockets this year! That level of disparity cannot be ignored. Plus, we can't expect a 37-year-old Kevin Durant to average 40+ points per game against the second-best defense in the NBA (107.9 points per game allowed). For those reasons, OKC moves on.
Thunder win the series 4-2
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #3 Denver Nuggets
Of all the potential playoff matchups we could get this year, this is the one I’m most looking forward to because of the battle that will ensue between the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama and the Nuggets' Nikola Jokic. This war between the two best centers in the NBA will be a sight to behold. Jokic and Wembanyama will be fantastic in every game this series. In a playoff matchup like this, I'm going to fall back on postseason experience. The Nuggets obviously have a Championship mentality, considering they won the NBA Finals three years ago. Meanwhile, the Spurs are an incredibly young team whose core has never come close to sniffing the playoffs. That's not to say that San Antonio will fail to meet expectations on the biggest stage. Rather, I believe Denver will elevate its game since this group has been here before. The Nuggets will just barely edge out the Spurs, but this could honestly go either way.
Nuggets win the series 4-3
Conference Finals
East
#1 Detroit Pistons vs. #2 Boston Celtics
The Pistons and Celtics are arguably the two toughest teams in the NBA this season. Since the All-Star Break, Boston is first in points per game allowed (104.9), while Detroit ranks sixth in that category (110.2). The difference between these squads is how clean they play. The Pistons have been called for the fourth-most personal fouls in the league since All-Star Weekend (21.2). Conversely, the C's have averaged the fewest fouls per game during that stretch (17.4). Boston bullies you without getting baited into making mistakes. More importantly, I trust the Celtics' starters more than I trust Detroit's. We have SEEN Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Payton Pritchard elevate their game in the playoffs. We can't say the same for Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson, or a 33-year-old Tobias Harris. Boston will focus all of its energy on stopping Cade Cunningham, which will force the Pistons to lean on other players for scoring. I don't know if those other guys will be up for the task against the best defense in the NBA.
Celtics win the series 4-2
West
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #3 Denver Nuggets
We all know that the Nuggets lead the league in scoring (122.1 points per game), but they will have their work cut out for them against an OKC squad that is second in points allowed per game (107.9). My concern with Denver is that it's not a well-rounded group. This team isn't average on defense; they're bad at it. Since the All-Star Break, the Nuggets are 17th in the league in defensive rating (115.9). That could be a problem when facing a Thunder squad that averages the fifth most points per game in the NBA (119). More importantly, if we look back at the season series between these groups, Oklahoma City came out on top 3-1. In fact, the only game that Denver won, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn't play. This series will go seven games, and Nikola Jokic will be sensational as he always is, but I’m worried about how the rest of the team will fare against an OKC group that has the best defensive rating in the NBA since All-Star Weekend. The buck stops here for Jokic and his remarkable 2025-26 season.
Thunder win the series 4-3
2026 NBA Finals
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics
It shouldn't come as much of a shock that this is our matchup for the NBA Finals. You know how experts always say, "defense wins championships?" Well, the Celtics have the best scoring defense in the NBA (107.2 points per game allowed), while the Thunder rank second in that category (107.9 points per game allowed). Normally, I like to refer to analytics and advanced statistics to help me pick a winner. But when it comes to these two teams, who are so evenly matched, we're just going to go by the eye test. In that case, my money is on the Celtics. You know that you can rely on Tatum, Brown, Pritchard, and White to give you a good offensive performance every single night. Can you honestly say that you have the same level of confidence in Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams to go toe-to-toe with Boston's guys offensively? The Thunder have a defensive advantage in this series, but it's not by much. This thing is going to come down to which group's starters play better, and I have more faith in Boston's starting five to excel when the lights shine the brightest.
Celtics win the NBA Finals 4-3
