We conclude our divisional predictions by analyzing the NFC South, where every team finished the 2025-26 season with a losing record. Despite those shortcomings, the Carolina Panthers still earned a playoff spot even though they had the same record as the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We also can't forget the New Orleans Saints, who are hoping to take a big leap in year two of Kellen Moore's system. Let's look at how the NFC South standings will shake out this coming season.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Somebody has to win this division, and I believe the Bucs have the best shot to do it given the talent on the roster and their starting quarterback. When healthy, Baker Mayfield can be one of the best QBs in the league and an MVP candidate. He struggled late last season because he was clearly hobbled by injuries. If Mayfield can take better care of himself and avoid getting significantly hurt, then the Buccaneers should be positioned to win plenty of games. I also like the additions they made through the draft and free agency. By bringing in Al-Quadin Muhammad, A'Shawn Robinson, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, and Rueben Bain Jr., Tampa should have a better pass rush, which has been an issue for a few years. Though every team in the NFC South has a tough schedule, the Bucs could get off to a hot start with games against the Bengals, Browns, Vikings, and Packers to open the season. Honestly, if they go 3-1 in those matchups, that will probably put them in first place in the division. Assuming they split the six games against the rest of the NFC South, that gets Tampa to six wins. If they can beat four of their seven remaining opponents - the Cowboys, Steelers, Bears, Lions, Chargers, Ravens, and Rams - then they'll have a 10-7 record, which should be good enough to win the division. At the end of the day, I’m taking the Bucs because Baker Mayfield is a vengeful motherf*cker, and I think he feels like he was embarrassed by Tampa in the off-season after the team refused to give him a contract extension. With something to prove, Baker Mayfield will have one of the best seasons of his career.
2. Carolina Panthers
Though three of the four teams in the NFC South had a successful off-season, the Panthers made the most meaningful additions. The Cats overhauled their defense by adding several playmakers through the draft and free agency. Linebacker Devin Lloyd and edge rusher Jaelan Phillips are not just immediate starters, but they will both be difference-makers for Carolina this year. I also think rookie cornerback Will Lee III and rookie nose tackle Lee Hunter will get significant playing time. Plus, I'm excited to see how well wideout Tet McMillan plays after he won the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Still, the biggest problem with the Panthers comes on the offensive side of the ball. There are several question marks along the offensive line. Tackles Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton are both dealing with injuries, and general manager Dan Morgan recently told reporters that he doesn't know when those guys will be available this season. Therefore, it'll be on free-agent signing Rasheed Walker and rookie Monroe Freeling to man the tackle spots for the time being. Not to mention, the Panthers are bringing in a new center after Cade Mays and Austin Corbett left in free agency. And, of course, there is the Bryce Young issue. Since entering the league in 2023, only 13 players have a lower passer rating than Young (80.9), and only one of those guys is projected to be a Week One starter (Cam Ward). Hell, Deshaun Watson has a better passer rating than Bryce Young during that stretch! Since I still do not trust Bryce Young to be a positive for his team, I’m taking the Panthers to finish with the second-best record in the division.
3. New Orleans Saints
I do believe that this will be a season of improvement in the Big Easy. In fact, I was tempted to make them my division winner! They brought in quite a few starters on both sides of the ball, including running back Travis Etienne, linebacker Kaden Elliss, and safety Julian Blackmon. Additionally, wide receivers Jordyn Tyson and Bryce Lance are a nice pair of weapons to add to the offense. With that in mind, most of the Saints' success is riding on second-year quarterback Tyler Shough taking that next step in his development, and it's incredibly risky to just assume that he’ll make a significant leap forward. I do predict that he'll be better than he was last season, but this is still a second-year QB who has only started nine NFL games. There's going to be a ton of pressure on him to perform well in New Orleans. On top of that, the Saints have a difficult stretch of games to open the year with back-to-back road matchups against the Lions and Ravens. After that, the schedule tips in their favor with games against the Raiders, Falcons, Vikings, Giants, Browns, and Cardinals. The back end of the schedule will make or break the Saints' 2026-27 campaign with four games against divisional foes over the last five weeks of the season. I just don't see them winning all of those NFC South matchups. Thankfully, they have a cupcake game sandwiched in between divisional showdowns with a Week 16 contest against the Arizona Cardinals. That should allow them to right the ship and finish the season strong with a win against either the Falcons or the Buccaneers. However, a weak defensive line and an unproven quarterback is a disastrous combination when you have to go against Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Jordan Love, Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield. When push comes to shove, the Saints will fall short of a winning record and finish third in the South.
4. Atlanta Falcons
This off-season has been a rollercoaster ride of emotions for the Dirty Birds. They re-signed their three best players: running back Bijan Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts, and wide receiver Drake London. The Falcons also drafted well considering they didn't have a first-round draft pick. Once training camp started, though, things took a turn. First, second-year edge rusher Jalon Walker tore his ACL, which will cause him to miss the entirety of the 2026-27 season. A little over a week later, their other young pass rusher, James Pearce Jr., was suspended for the first eight games of the regular season after he was arrested for a domestic dispute in February. The preseason was not much better. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. didn't play a single snap, while the guy he was competing against, Tua Tagovailoa, looked unimpressive, to say the least. It seems that Michael Penix Jr. is the lesser of two evils, but head coach Kevin Stefanski hasn't made it clear who he favors in the quarterback battle. Couple the uninspired quarterbacking with a new system, and the Falcons could be in for a long season, especially with the schedule they face. Atlanta opens the year with three straight games against playoff opponents. Also, they will have to face the Ravens, Bears, 49ers, Bengals, Chiefs, and Lions, who will all be better than they were last season. It seems like the Falcons only have one layup during the regular season: a Week 14 matchup against the Browns. Every other game will be a grinder for this team. While they have arguably the best set of skill position players in the NFL, they are lacking along the defensive line and at the quarterback spot. I suspect this year will be closer to a rebuild as opposed to an improvement over last season.
