We are now officially done with the 2026 NFL Preseason, which means the next time teams take the field, it'll actually count for something! Before that, though, we continue our NFL prediction series with the AFC South, where the Jaguars are looking to win the division for the second straight year. However, they'll have their hands full with the Texans, the Colts, and the revamped Titans. Let's take a look at how the AFC South standings will shake out this coming season.
1. Houston Texans
Even with up-and-down quarterback play, Houston still managed to make the playoffs thanks to the best defense in the NFL. The Texans will once again boast one of the three best defenses in the National Football League, which makes them a legitimate threat to beat any team they face. They're bringing back basically every good starter on that side of the ball from last year and added meaningful contributors like defensive tackle Kayden McDonald, pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney, and safety Reed Blankenship. The offense should also be better than last year with the additions of tackle Braden Smith, guard Keylan Rutledge, interior lineman Wyatt Teller, and running back David Montgomery. The defense will be so exceptional that if Houston's offense is simply average, then the team should easily finish the regular season with a winning record. After all, they have a pretty favorable second-place schedule that includes matchups with the Titans, Browns, and Giants. There is also the matter of the toss-up games that the Texans have this season against the Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Chargers, Steelers, Commanders, Packers, Eagles, and Colts twice. Assuming they beat the cupcake teams and win half of the games that I just mentioned, that would get them nine wins. From there, they would realistically only need to beat the Jaguars once and win one more game against the Ravens at home to reach 11 victories. Given how difficult the Jaguars' schedule is expected to be, it's fair to assume an 11-6 record would be enough to earn the Texans the AFC South divisional crown.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars had the luxury of playing a third-place schedule last year, which would explain why they mounted such an impressive single-season turnaround. This year, though, they face a much tougher gauntlet of opponents. In fact, seven of their games come against teams that made the playoffs in 2026. Meanwhile, they have another four contests against opponents that will likely be in the running for a postseason berth, like the Bengals, Ravens, Cowboys, and Commanders. Jacksonville only has three guaranteed wins on its schedule: two games against the Titans and a Week One matchup with the Browns. At the same time, the Jaguars lost many key starters from last year, including All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd, starting running back Travis Etienne, cornerback Greg Newsome, and safety Andrew Wingard. Similarly, it was not a great off-season for the Jaguars. They failed to add a difference-maker through free agency and utilized a questionable draft strategy. On the bright side, this marks another full year of quarterback Trevor Lawrence in head coach Liam Coen's system. On top of that, they will have the full services of wideouts Travis Hunter and Jakobi Meyers, which should make the passing attack that much more effective. Let's give Jacksonville the benefit of the doubt and give them victories over the Giants, Colts, and Texans. That would only get them to six wins. They would need to win six more games against the likes of the Cowboys, Commanders, Ravens, Bears, Steelers, Eagles, Bengals, Patriots, and Broncos in order to overtake the Texans, and I just don't see that happening. The Jaguars are more likely to finish below .500 than they are to post a winning record this year.
3. Indianapolis Colts
This was a tough off-season filled with many consequential decisions for the Colts. They chose to sign quarterback Daniel Jones and wideout Alec Pierce to lofty extensions while parting ways with starters such as wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., safety Nick Cross, tackle Braden Smith, linebacker Zaire Franklin, and edge rusher Kwity Paye. In all likelihood, the offensive line will not be as effective as it was last season, which will hurt Jones and running back Jonathan Taylor. We also don't know if wideout Keenan Allen will be suspended for his arrest following an alleged DUI. Needless to say, these factors do not bode well for the Colts, who were 2-8 against playoff teams last season. The schedule makers didn't do them any favors this year with six games against teams that made the playoffs last year. That also doesn't include toss-up matchups against squads that will likely be much better, like the Ravens, Chiefs, Cowboys, Bengals, Commanders, Vikings, and Giants. I only see three sure-fire wins for the Colts this season: two games against the Titans and a Week 17 matchup with the Browns. The problem is that they open the year with three incredibly tough games against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Texans. Hell, depending on how good the Commanders and Steelers are out of the gate, there's a possibility Indy could be 0-5 by the time they get their first game against an easy opponent (the Titans). If they get off to that slow of a start, then it might be a lost season. That would cause the Colts to fire their coach, which will only lead to more losses.
4. Tennessee Titans
Over the last three seasons, no team in the NFL has been worse than the Tennessee Titans, who have the lowest winning percentage in the league during that stretch (.235). The good news is that the Titans have completely revamped their franchise top-to-bottom. They brought in countless experienced coaches, added several free agents, and drafted well. Multiple units should be better, including the wide receiver room, the secondary, and the defensive line. Unfortunately, this will still be one of the worst teams in the NFL because they have so many new pieces all trying to get on the same page. Tennessee has a difficult schedule that features six games against teams that made the playoffs last year. Additionally, they'll face much-improved squads like the Cowboys, Bengals, Commanders, Lions, and Ravens. There isn't one game in which Tennessee could easily be called the favorite. The three that stand out the most are the Week One matchup with the Jets, the Week Seven game against the Browns, and the Week 16 contest with the Raiders. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say the Titans win all three of those games; from there, I'm hard-pressed to find more victories. Maybe they'll pull off some upsets against divisional opponents or beat an NFC East team. I could see Tennessee finishing the year with a record of 5-12 or 6-11, which would be a marked improvement considering they have averaged four wins a season since the start of the 2023-24 campaign. Still, the Titans are firmly in control of the fourth seed in the AFC South until they prove themselves otherwise.
