Winners of Group D - Turkiye @ 7/4
Team in bottom place in Group D - Australia @ 17/20
Top scorer in Group D - Folarin Balogun @ SP
Group D at the 2026 World Cup will see co-hosts USA, Paraguay, Australia and Turkiye battle for a place in the knockout stage of the tournament.
In what promises to be an intriguing tussle between the four nations, we have looked at each team’s form and key players to provide some value bets.
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USA
Co-hosts USA will carry significant expectations into Group D and anything less than qualification for the knockout stages would be viewed as a failure. Mauricio Pochettino has assembled a squad packed with players from Europe's top leagues and the Americans should benefit from home advantage throughout.
Christian Pulisic remains the headline act and the AC Milan attacker will be expected to provide the spark going forward, while striker Folarin Balogun arrives after an excellent season for Monaco. Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, Chris Richards and Antonee Robinson provide quality and experience elsewhere in the squad.
The USA have reached the knockout stages in each of their last three World Cup appearances and should be confident of extending that record this summer.
Paraguay
Paraguay are back at the World Cup for the first time since 2010 after an impressive qualification campaign. Gustavo Alfaro's side secured notable victories over Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay and built their success on defensive organisation.
Only Argentina conceded as few goals during CONMEBOL qualifying and Paraguay will attempt to frustrate opponents before capitalising on mistakes or set-piece opportunities. Goals can be difficult to come by, however, and that may ultimately limit their ambitions.
Julio Enciso is their most exciting attacking player and much of Paraguay's creative burden will fall on the Strasbourg forward. Captain Gustavo Gomez remains the leader of a stubborn and disciplined defence.
Australia
Australia have qualified for their sixth successive World Cup but do not look strong enough to make much of a dent this time around. Tony Popovic has made them difficult to beat and their disciplined style could keep matches competitive throughout Group D but ultimately the lack of attacking threat could be costly.
Goals were often hard-earned during qualification and they may struggle to create enough chances against stronger opposition.
Jackson Irvine remains the heartbeat of the side, while Harry Souttar's return from injury strengthens the defence considerably. Australia should be competitive in every match, but they may find the quality gap in this group difficult to overcome.
Turkiye
Perennial tournament dark horses Turkiye have once again been given that moniker and possess a squad capable of making a deep run. Vincenzo Montella guided the Crescent Stars to the quarter-finals of Euro 2024 and they have continued to develop into a technically gifted and confident side.
The midfield is led by Inter captain Hakan Calhanoglu, while Real Madrid star Arda Guler has emerged as one of the most exciting young players around. Juventus forward Kenan Yildiz provides additional flair and creativity in the final third.
Turkiye have quality throughout the squad and the players have all bought into Montella’s ethos and philosophy of high pressing, hard running style of football.
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Who will win World Cup Group D?
In an extremely even-looking group, Turkiye look to just have the edge over co-hosts USA. Montella's side arrive with momentum and a manager capable of getting the best out of his attacking talents.
The Turks reached the quarter-finals of Euro 2024 and have continued to improve around a core featuring Calhanoglu, Guler and Yildiz. They also defeated the USA in a friendly last year, a result which underlined their ability to compete with strong opponents away from home.
While the USA have quality throughout their squad, there remains pressure on Pochettino's side to deliver in front of their own supporters. Turkiye may benefit from entering the tournament with slightly lower expectations, despite their dark horse tag. A winner-takes-all final group encounter between the pair is a mouth-watering prospect.
Victory for Turkiye over Australia in their opening match would put them in an excellent position, and they look capable of securing enough points before a potential group decider against the USA in the final match.
Who will finish bottom of World Cup Group D?
Australia look the weakest side in the section on paper. Their organisation and work ethic should keep games competitive, but they lack the attacking firepower of their rivals and could find themselves finishing bottom, potentially without a point.
Turkiye can edge a tightly contested battle for first place, while the USA should still progress comfortably in second. The Americans possess far more attacking quality than either Paraguay or Australia and home advantage could prove particularly important in matches expected to be decided by fine margins. Pulisic, Balogun and McKennie give them match-winning ability throughout the team.
That could leave Paraguay and Australia battling it out for third place, making their final group match crucial. Victory for the South Americans could give them a realistic chance of progressing as one of the tournament's best third-placed teams if, as expected, Turkiye and the USA already have the top two spots sewn up heading into the final round of fixtures.
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Who will be the top scorer of World Cup Group D?
Folarin Balogun heads into the tournament in excellent form after scoring 18 goals across 30 Ligue 1 and Champions League matches this season. He has also established himself as the focal point of the USA attack, scoring nine goals in 26 international appearances, including four in his last nine matches.
Australia have no standout attackers, while Paraguay’s defensive mindset often leads to low-scoring matches. Turkiye possess plenty of attacking talent but goals could be spread between Guler, Yildiz, Akturkoglu and Calhanoglu rather than one dominant scorer emerging.
With the USA likely to progress and Balogun leading the line in a team built to attack, he looks the standout candidate to finish as Group D's leading marksman.
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