World Cup 2026 Golden Boot Prediction & Odds: Magical Messi has one foot in the Boot
Steve Davies
The goals are flowing at the 23rd FIFA World Cup as the greatest forwards in the game flex their muscles in North America. It means the race for the Golden Boot could be a thrilling sideshow to the main event, with so many contenders in the hunt for the prize.
Going into the knockout stages of the 2026 World Cup, it is clear who is in pole position to wear the Golden Boot - and it is one of the few individual honours he has never won.
Best Bets
Lionel Messi to win the Golden Boot
Argentina's Lionel Messi finished second behind Kylian Mbappé in Qatar with seven goals, and after the group stage of this summer's finals, he is already on the six-goal mark.
That puts the little legend two clear of the rest of the field and makes him the clear market leader to take home another of the sport's most cherished accolades. What lies ahead, as much as what he has already done, is what makes Messi excellent value to finish as the tournament's top scorer.
Argentina should see off Cape Verde and either Australia or Egypt in the early knockout rounds, and they would not fear whoever emerges from the Switzerland-Algeria-Colombia-Ghana section of the draw. The reigning world champions have to fancy their chances of booking a place in the semi-finals. Reaching the final four would guarantee five more games to be played, giving Messi the perfect platform to set a goalscoring bar that no one else can reach.
Lionel Messi to win the Golden Boot - odds @9/10
Harry Kane to win the Golden Boot
Harry Kane has some catching up to do, but a man who has scored 70 goals since last August ought to be confident of achieving just about anything.
Kane scored twice for England in their 4-2 win over Croatia and added another in the 2-0 victory against Panama. Like Messi and Argentina, the England captain can likely see a clear route to the semi-finals - and therefore five more matches.
Kane will hope to fill his boots against DR Congo in the Round of 32. If he finds the net there, the double-figure odds currently available for him to win the Golden Boot will be swiftly slashed.
Harry Kane to win the Golden Boot - odds @14/1
The Knockout Draw and Other Contenders
The bottom half of the draw - where both Argentina and England are housed - looks significantly softer on paper.
This lopsided draw is likely to limit the chances of France's star duo, Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé, who both sit on four goals after the group stage. France's potential route through the knockout rounds could feature Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain. None of those fixtures are freebies, and any one of them could spell the end for Didier Deschamps' side.
Elsewhere, Cristiano Ronaldo has surely given himself too much to do with only two goals to his name so far. Meanwhile, backers of four-goal Erling Haaland will be cursing Norway manager Ståle Solbakken's decision to drop the striker for their final group game against France, robbing him of a prime opportunity to add to his tally.
Current Golden Boot Standings
Below are the leading goalscorers heading into the knockout rounds of the 2026 World Cup:
Player | Country | Goals Scored | Odds to Win Golden Boot |
|---|---|---|---|
Lionel Messi | Argentina | 6 | 9/10 |
Kylian Mbappé | France | 4 | 11/4 |
Ousmane Dembélé | France | 4 | 12/1 |
Vinícius Júnior | Brazil | 4 | 16/1 |
Erling Haaland | Norway | 4 | 20/1 |
Harry Kane | England | 3 | 14/1 |
Matheus Cunha | Brazil | 3 | 50/1 |
Deniz Undav | Germany | 3 | 66/1 |
Ismael Saibari | Morocco | 3 | 66/1 |
Jonathan David | Canada | 3 | 66/1 |
Brian Brobbey | Netherlands | 3 | 80/1 |
Johan Manzambi | Switzerland | 3 | 80/1 |
Yoane Wissa | DR Congo | 3 | - |
Ismaïla Sarr | Senegal | 3 | - |
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