There’s a lot at stake at the National Stadium Warsaw on Friday evening (19:45 GMT), as Poland are fighting desperately to stay in the running for a place at the 2026 World Cup, while the Netherlands can book their spot at next summer’s tournament with a win. 

A win for the Dutch would secure a coveted berth in North America for Ronald Koeman’s side, while the hosts need to either avoid defeat or pray Finland fail to beat Malta to confirm a top two spot in Group G.

Team form

The Netherlands have been in flying form in World Cup qualifying, boasting an unbeaten record after their opening six games. 

Those victories have been convincing for the most part, including beating Malta by a combined 12 goals (8-0 & 4-0) and recording a 4-0 home win over Finland last month. 

Koeman’s men have the second-best attacking record in the European qualifiers with 22 goals, while they’ve conceded just three times. 

However, Poland are the one nation that has been a thorn in the Netherlands’ side in Group G. Jan Urban’s outfit earned a 1-1 draw in Rotterdam thanks to a late goal from Matty Cash. 

As well as that stalemate with the Dutch, Poland have won four and lost one, which came via a 2-1 defeat away to Finland. 

The Northern European side are still hot on Poland’s tail, so this game against the Netherlands and the subsequent tie against Malta are crucial. 

Head-to-head

Poland have never beaten the Netherlands in their eight previous meetings, with two draws and six defeats against the Dutch. 

With the home side needing to avoid defeat, they might take confidence from the fact that those two draws have come in their last five meetings. 

However, the Netherlands do have a good record away from home in Poland. In fact, they’ve won all three of their trips there. 

Team news

Koeman has made some significant changes to the Netherlands squad for their final two games. Impressive club form has seen Feyenoord midfielder Luciano Valente called up for the first time, while Matthijs de Ligt is also back in the squad, alongside Noa Lang. 

Stefan de Vrij and Teun Koopmeiners both miss out on a spot for these fixtures, while Mexx Meersink is sidelined. There wasn’t enough time for Emanuel Emegha to recover from a hamstring issue and make it back either.  

Urban has made several changes to his squad from last month’s wins over New Zealand and Lithuania, with Kryspin Szczesniak and Nicola Zalewski amongst those recalled, while Arkadiusz Pyrka and Przemyslaw Frankowski are among those withdrawn. 

Key stats

• The Netherlands have averaged 3.7 goals per game in qualifying, while Poland have averaged 1.7. 

• Both teams have scored in four of the last five games between these two sides. 

• Memphis Depay is the second-top scorer in UEFA World Cup qualifying, with seven goals and four assists in six games. 

• Robert Lewandowski remains Poland’s biggest threat, with three goals in five qualifiers. 

Prediction

While Poland can’t afford to lose this qualifier, the Netherlands could prove too strong for the hosts once again. 

With a place at the World Cup guaranteed with a win in Warsaw, and with a good record here, the Dutch are likely to run out winners.