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Netherlands vs Japan predictions: Dutch could make a disappointing start

Published:
Daniel ChildsDaniel Childs
The Netherlands are keen to lose their tag as one of the top football nations never to win the World Cup, but Dan Childs expects them to struggle against Japan in an evenly-matched Group F encounter.
Ronald Koeman's Netherlands are favourites to top Group F but face a tough opener against Japan, who beat Germany and Spain n 2022
Ronald Koeman's Netherlands are favourites to top Group F but face a tough opener against Japan, who beat Germany and Spain n 2022
  • Japan have avoided defeat in 12 of their last 13 matches

  • Netherlands have kept one clean sheet in their last six games

  • Recommended bet: Japan +0.5 on Asian handicap

Follow every World Cup 2026 score with LiveScore including Netherlands vs Japan.

The Netherlands have reached the quarter-finals or better on each of their last six World Cup appearances and they will be aiming for a fast start to their summer when taking on Japan at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

Near misses have been a regular occurrence for the Oranje, who exited the 2022 World Cup at the quarter-final stage after a penalty shootout loss to the eventual winners, Argentina.

But they return to the latest global gathering with renewed hope after a solid, albeit unspectacular qualifying campaign.

Ronald Koeman’s side are the favourites to finish top of Group F, but they will have plenty of respect for Japan, who topped their section at Qatar 2022 at the expense of Spain, Germany and Costa Rica.

Japan fell in the round of 16 after a 1-1 draw and a penalty shootout loss to Croatia.

However, they have assembled a strong squad for 2026 and will be striving to advance to the final eight for the first time in their history.

The latest Netherlands vs Japan odds are available on LiveScore Bet.

Team news

Lutsharel Geertruida was called up as a late squad replacement for Jurrien Timber, who missed out due to a groin injury.

Xavi Simons (knee) and Matthijs de Ligt (back surgery) are other notable absentees from a squad which seems to have greater quality and depth in defence than attack.

Japan were frustrated by injuries to Kaoru Mitoma (hamstring) and Takumi Minamino (knee) which ruled them out of the tournament, and they suffered another blow earlier this week when Wataru Endo (foot) was forced to withdraw.

Borussia Moenchengladbach’s Shuto Machino was called up as a replacement.

The stats

Each of the last four World Cup group stage matches involving the Netherlands has featured fewer than three goals.

Japan have won their last six fixtures.

The Blue Samurai have kept five successive clean sheets.

Japan have won their last three games by a 1-0 scoreline.

Japan have won their opening match at the last two World Cups.

The latest Netherlands vs Japan odds are available on LiveScore Bet.

Prediction

Japan sprang a couple of major surprises at the 2022 World Cup, registering 2-1 wins over Germany and Spain, and they can make a strong start to the 2026 event by avoiding defeat against the Dutch.

Taking on the big European nations is seen as a challenge rather than an ordeal for the Blue Samurai, who won 1-0 away to Thomas Tuchel’s England less than three months ago.

Japan are well-organised and energetic and possess plenty of talent, including Feyenoord centre-forward Ayase Ueda, who top-scored in this season’s Eredivisie with 25 goals.

They can collect at least a share of the spoils against the Netherlands, who were held to a pair of 1-1 draws by Poland during qualifying.

Score prediction: Netherlands 1-1 Japan

Back Japan +0.5 on Asian handicap at 17/20 with LiveScore Bet.


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Netherlands vs Japan predictions: Dutch could make a disappointing start