Argentina are determined to defend their crown this summer, and so far, they have looked the part, with six-goal Lionel Messi the orchestrator of a near note-perfect showing in Group J. Argentina’s odds to win the World Cup are shortening, but can La Albiceleste claim back-to-back titles?

Spectacular winners four years ago in Qatar, Argentina showed more trophy-winning nous to lift the Copa America in 2024. With a settled squad backed to the brim with battle-hardened, seasoned performers, they know what it takes to excel in tournament football.

Ahead of their Round of 32 date with Cape Verde, we discuss Argentina’s group stage performances, their likely route to the final, their chances of claiming successive titles, as well as some betting angles and World Cup predictions to consider.

Argentina’s Group Stage report card

Group J results:

• Argentina 3-0 Algeria (June 16, Arrowhead Stadium)

• Argentina 2-0 Austria (June 22, AT&T Stadium)

• Argentina 3-1 Jordan (June 27, AT&T Stadium)

Argentina were always likely to dominate Group J after a favourable draw paired them with a trio of beatable opponents, and the South American giants used the World Cup’s introductory phase to put a marker down.

To absolutely nobody’s surprise, Lionel Messi was the protagonist on matchday one, netting a sensational hattrick against Algeria on what was a record-shattering outing in Arlington. That made him the oldest player ever to score a World Cup treble.

Messi scored twice more in Argentina’s cosy 2-0 win over Austria and despite being rested on matchday three against Jordan, he still managed to register off the bench to maintain his hunt for the World Cup Golden Boot.

By close of business in Group J, Messi had set new records for the most goals scored, most goals from outside the box and most chances created in World Cup history. The 39-year-old also became the first player to score in seven consecutive World Cup games.

Messi’s brilliance dominated headlines, though Argentina’s defensive performances also deserved a mention. They conceded just two shots on target and meagre 1.55 in xG across their three Group J fixtures combined.

Argentina’s potential path to the final of FIFA World Cup 2026

• Round of 32: Cape Verde (July 3, Miami)

• Round of 16: Australia or Egypt (July 7, Atlanta)

• Quarter Finals: Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia or Ghana (July 12, Kansas City)

• Semi Finals: Brazil, Norway, Mexico, England (July 15, Atlanta)

On paper, Argentina’s route to the semi-final stage of the 2026 looks relatively unobstructed. Navigating a Round of 32 test against Cape Verde should be straightforward, though an early goal would help to break the tension there.

In the Round of 16, the winner of Australia’s tie with Egypt awaits, though both possible opponents lack the class and quality to pose a genuine threat to Argentina’s World Cup status.

If, as expected, Argentina qualify for the quarter-finals in Kansas City on July 12, they will face one of Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia or Ghana. La Albiceleste have already beaten the Algerians once comfortably, and they would be overwhelming favourites to topple both the Swiss and the Black Stars.

South American counterparts Colombia would offer a stiffer challenge. They took four points off Argentina during the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers, though Argentina did prevail at Colombia’s expense in the final of the 2022 Copa America, albeit by a narrow margin in extra time (1-0).

If Argentina pass that test, the difficulty level will crank up even more in the semis, with Brazil or England the likeliest adversaries in Atlanta.

Crucially, second favourites Argentina are on the opposite side of the knockout draw to favourites France, potentially setting up a rematch of the 2022 Final in this year’s iteration.

Argentina’s Outright odds to win the World Cup

Argentina remain nestled as second-favourites at a price of 4/1 in the latest 2026 World Cup outright winner markets behind Didier Deschamps’s fancied French outfit.

Bettors should expect that price to tumble if Lionel Messi and Argentina coast to victory against Cape Verde, though they are unlikely to overtake Les Bleus at any point in the markets.

England, who are in line to meet Argentina in the semis, and Spain are both priced at 8/1 in the outright stakes, with Brazil at 11/1 and Portugal at 14/1, followed by a clutch of teams at the 28/1 price point, including Colombia, co-hosts the USA and Mexico, as well as Morocco.

The probability of Argentina winning the 2026 World Cup currently sits at 20%, a figure that suggests they will be there or thereabouts. The key, of course, is keeping Messi fit, fresh and well supplied as the tournament enters its latter stages.

Back Argentina to win the World Cup at 4/1 with LiveScoreBet

Argentina World Cup predictions: how far will they go?

Argentina can plot their route to the World Cup semi-finals with a certain degree of confidence, given the favourable-looking list of possible opponents in their way, and beyond that, anything is possible for Lionel Scaloni’s defending champions.

Their reliance on Messi to produce their moments of magic in the final third has the potential to become an issue as fixtures toughen, however. The 39-year-old has scored six of his team’s eight goals so far and if teams can find a way to stop Messi, they might stop Argentina completely. That’s easier said than done, however.

Lautaro Martinez’s only strike in the group stage came from the spot against Jordan, while the €100m-rated Julian Alvarez has yet to supply a single goal or assist. Messi has had 15 shots so far this summer, though the next-best performer for Argentina for that metric is the aforementioned Martinez with four.

Will Messi’s magic be enough to carry an entire frontline if Argentina set up that rematch with France and Les Bleus nest of match-winners in the final? We’re not so sure.

In terms of betting predictions, backing Argentina to make the semi finals at 11/20 with LiveScoreBet should be a safe manoeuvre given the handiness of their draw, while their price of 6/4 to reach the final itself also appeals.

Back Argentina to finish in the World Cup’s top two at 6/4

World Cup bet builder tips for Argentina

Finally, we’ve included some betting advice below to take to the bet builder markets for Argentina’s remaining World Cup fixtures:

Player shots on target

Lionel Messi has been a one-man wrecking ball at the World Cup so far, racking up 6.75 shots and 4.05 shots on target per 90 minutes, though the veteran needs to be backed to hit big numbers to find prices with any value in the markets.

Reliable alternatives aren’t there at the moment, with Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, and Thiago Almada mustering only five shots on target between them since the start of the tournament.

Player fouls

Midfielders Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez have committed four and three fouls respectively at the World Cup so far, and that bristly pair will continue to dish out punishment as the competition progresses and games become more difficult.

Striker Lautaro Martinez is another under-the-radar option to consider here, however. The forward has given away more free kicks (5) than any other Argentine player this summer, which would come as no surprise to avid followers of Serie A.

The 28-year-old conceded 47 fouls in 30 appearances in Italy for Inter Milan last term, which breaks down to an average of 1.98 per 90 minutes played.

Capitalise on Argentina’s defence

As we highlighted earlier, Argentina have one of the most robust defensive units at the World Cup, with experienced stopper Emi Martinez marshalling a tough-as-nails four-man backline of Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez and Facundo Medina.

They conceded just one goal and two shots on target in the group stage and their defence should be just as tough to breach in the knockout phase. That should open up opportunities to back their opponents in the under team 0.5/1.5 goals and under shots on target bet builder markets.