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By Aaron Ashley
England have had to battle through the knockout stages and Argentina’s danger going forward makes it difficult to look past the reigning World Cup champions qualifying for a second successive final.
The Lionel Messi-factor will play a huge part with the Argentinians willing to run through brick walls for him, and England can't continue to rely on Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane to make something happen. Defensive issues have seen England concede the opening goal in two of their last three games, with Andreas Schjelderup putting Norway ahead in the quarter-final and DR Congo taking a shock lead in the last 32.
England conceded twice in victory over Mexico, so are without a clean sheet in three, and Argentina could have a field day. It has been far from vintage Argentina during the tournament, but it feels like they are yet to get out of first gear and Messi continues to score goals and create for plenty of dangerous players in advanced positions.
With Declan Rice still battling back from illness, having been substituted at half-time against Norway, it could leave the midfield chasing shadows with no like-for-like replacement in the squad and Tuchel not fancying Kobbie Mainoo to fill the role. Further issues at full-back could also play a vital role - Djed Spence and Nico O’Reilly have struggled defensively in the past two games - so the decision to replace Tino Livramento with Trevoh Chalobah still raises questions. Right-back has been an issue all tournament.
Messi looks revitalised, suggesting his spell in the MLS has given him the best possible preparation going into this tournament. A second successive final looks highly probable, yet they are odds-against. Noni Madueke has failed to excite the England faithful with sub-par performances all tournament, but he’s not the only one. O’Reilly is another who has struggled in his first international tournament and is better when on the front foot.
Argentina showed great character to come from two goals down to defeat Egypt, a clear indication of the danger they possess, while they came on strongly to win 3-1 in extra-time against Switzerland. Messi adapted his role and found himself finding joy in the wide areas, something Angel Di Maria, a player who is a massive miss following his international retirement, had previously done excellently.
Norway was another indication of England's struggles and reliance on Bellingham. Schjelderup’s cross/shot somehow beat Jordan Pickford at his back post and he has not been at his best all tournament, meaning he is unlikely to bail out a shaky defence this time.
Backing Argentina to qualify looks the value pick in this semi-final. Messi is on fire and he has an excellent supporting cast including Julian Alvarez, who curled in a stunning winner against Switzerland and appeals in the anytime-goalscorer market.
Alvarez is capable of stretching an England backline which has struggled all tournament and, with Messi providing, there is every chance he doubles his tally.
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