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Slovenia vs Scotland predictions: Scots can pick up a point under Pocognoli

Published:
James MiltonJames Milton
Scotland head coach Sebastien Pocognoli will be hoping for a positive start to his reign
Scotland head coach Sebastien Pocognoli will be hoping for a positive start to his reign

Scotland's last Nations League game was a 3-0 home defeat to Greece in March 2025, which sealed their relegation from the top tier of the competition.

Since then, the Scots have dramatically qualified for the World Cup but limped out of the tournament at the group stage and new boss Sebastien Pocognoli is targeting a winning start in Slovenia on Saturday.

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Team news

Slovenia will be missing Manchester United striker Benjamin Sesko, who is struggling with a shin problem. Defender Zan Zalatel and forward Nik Prelec have also pulled out of Bostjan Cesar's squad. 

Scotland are without Scott McTominay, Lawrence Shankland, Kieran Tierney and Kenny McLean. Blackburn midfielder Kristi Montgomery is one of eight uncapped players called up and Napoli's Billy Gilmour, who missed the World Cup due to injury, is back. 

The stats

Seven of Slovenia's last nine competitive matches were draws in 90 minutes.

Slovenia have won only one of their last 10 internationals.

Slovenia had just 12 shots on target in six 2026 World Cup qualifying matches.

Both teams scored in only one of Scotland's last seven games.

Three of Scotland's last four defeats were by a 1-0 scoreline.

Midfielder Lewis Ferguson was booked in five of his last 10 competitive appearances for Scotland.

The latest Slovenia vs Scotland odds are available on LiveScore Bet

Prediction

Scoring goals has been a problem for Slovenia and Scotland, who look set for an edgy 90 minutes in their opening Nations League Group B1 fixture.

The chances of a high-scoring thriller have been reduced by injuries to Slovenia's star striker Benjamin Sesko and Scotland frontman Lawrence Shankland.

The Scots are also missing Napoli midfielder Scott McTominay, one of their main attacking threats, so the draw and under 2.5 goals are appealing Bet Builder selections.

Slovenia have had seven draws in their last nine competitive matches and Scotland's lack of firepower was exposed at the World Cup finals.

John McGinn's deflected strike gave them a tense 1-0 win over Haiti in their opening group game but they were unable to kick on, losing 1-0 to Morocco and 3-0 to Brazil.

They also lost 1-0 in March friendlies against Japan and Ivory Coast and new manager Sebastien Pocognoli may take time to get a tune out of his attacking players.

One of Scotland's bright sparks during their tough World Cup campaign was winger Ben Gannon-Doak, who had four shots in his two starts against Haiti and Brazil.

Gannon-Doak scored in the final away qualifier against Greece, had four shots in Bournemouth's EFL Cup win against Lincoln and can register an effort on target against Slovenia.

Score Prediction: Slovenia 1-1 Scotland

Back Draw, under 2.5 goals & Ben Gannon-Doak over 0.5 shots on target, available at 17/2 with LiveScore Bet

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Slovenia vs Scotland predictions: Scots can pick up a point under Pocognoli