Tonight, the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens renew their rivalry with a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals on the line. The Sabres will be trying to win their second playoff series in 19 years, while the Habs hope to earn their first Eastern Conference Finals appearance since the 2020-21 season, when they made it to the Stanley Cup Final.

It could've already been viewed as a successful campaign after Buffalo ended its 15-year playoff drought. However, the Sabres took it a step further and defeated the Boston Bruins for their first playoff series victory since 2007. Eighth-year Buffalo defenseman Rasmus Dahlin knew how significant it was for this franchise to get that win.

“It was unreal,” he said after the series-clinching victory over Boston on May 1st. “I liked how we attacked this series as a team. A lot of non-experienced guys just playing the way we did all series. It's pretty cool. We have good things ahead. We can learn a lot from this. But I love what we did in this series. It was special.”

One could argue that the Sabres would've lost that first-round matchup if not for goalie Alex Lyon. He ranks second in goals allowed per game (1.14) and save percentage (.955) amongst goaltenders in the 2026 playoffs.

“[You] can't get much better than that,” Sabres forward Alex Tuch laughed after Game Six. “I mean, he's lights out. The only way they beat him tonight was just a great two-on-one back door… He was lights out. He was just in the zone. Attacked every opportunity they threw at him. Steady Eddie. It was awesome. [It] gives the bench a lot of confidence when you got a guy like that playing the way he was.”

On the other side, the Canadiens needed seven games to defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning in their first-round series. Center Alex Newhook scored a goal with 11:07 remaining in the third period of Game Seven to put the Habs ahead 2-1. That ended up being the difference in the series.

“I mean, it's [the] biggest goal of the series,” forward Nick Suzuki told reporters during the postgame press conference. “I thought we kept building our game in the third period. You know, great hand-eye coordination by Newi. We kind of finally got to get some O-zone time. [It’s a] big moment, and he’s been a big game player. Really happy for him, and [it] definitely gave our group a lot of confidence and momentum for the rest of the period.”

It was actually a historic victory for the Canadiens, who were outshot by the Lightning 29-9. Montreal set a record for the fewest shots taken by a team in a Stanley Cup Playoff victory.

“Tonight, what did we have, nine shots, 10 shots?" Habs head coach Martin St. Louis said after the game. "I felt like tonight they deserved better. I felt like Game Six, we probably deserved better, and (Jakub) Dobes kind of stole the game. Probably similar to the way Vasi (Andrei Vasilevskiy) stole the game in Game Six in my mind. You need a little bit of everything, and I think that's what we got this series."

Now these squads go against each other after splitting the season series 2-2. In all likelihood, the familiarity that these teams have with each other will make for a very compelling matchup.

“We know them. They know us. So, it's going to be a battle,” Rasmus Dahlin said on Monday. “It comes down to competing. It comes down to who wants it more. Every shift, puck battles, box outs, stuff like that. It's going to be so tight, so it'll take a lot to score goals in the series, I think.”

Prediction for Montreal Canadiens (-110) vs. Buffalo Sabres (-110)

Sportsbooks aren't giving either team an edge in this series. As you can see, the Canadiens and Sabres have the exact same odds to move on to the Eastern Conference Finals. Regardless of who you pick, there isn't a clear underdog heading into this matchup.

The faceoff battle during the regular season was a good indication of who emerged victorious. In three of the four games that these teams played during the 2025-26 campaign, the group that won the faceoff battle also ended up winning the game. The Habs have a clear advantage in that case since they've won 55.6% of their faceoffs, while the Sabres are dead last amongst playoff teams in that category at 43.8%.

The goaltending battle is dead even. Montreal's Jakub Dobes has a .961 save percentage and has only given up four goals in his last three games. Though Alex Lyon has given up the same number of goals, his save percentage is .949, which is still excellent despite being lower than Dobes'. Needless to say, goals will be at a premium in this series.

It feels like this thing will be decided by whichever team gets more scoring from its top line. The Sabres' top five guys have combined for 11 goals already in the postseason. The same cannot be said for Montreal's starting five, who have only five goals in the playoffs. In fact, the Canadiens' leading scorer in the regular season, Nick Suzuki, has only found the back of the net three times since the beginning of April. I also like Buffalo having the home-ice advantage when this thing inevitably goes to a Game Seven.

Prediction: Sabres win the series 4-3

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