2026 Stanley Cup Finals Preview and Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Carolina Hurricanes

Just two teams remain in the 2025-26 NHL season, with the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals set to begin tonight. Coming out of the East, we have the best team in the conference, record-wise, in the 53-22-7 Carolina Hurricanes. Meanwhile, the Vegas Golden Knights will represent the West for the third time in nine years.
The Golden Knights pulled off one of the most shocking upsets in NHL history by sweeping the Presidents' Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference Finals. Thanks to that win, Vegas will be playing in its third Stanley Cup Finals since the team's inaugural season in 2017.
"After spending a couple of weeks with the team, you can tell it's a really good group," said Golden Knights head coach John Tortorella, who was hired on March 30. "I'm thrilled for the opportunity. Thrilled to be along for the ride with them… We have an opportunity to play for the Stanley Cup now. I'm proud of the guys."
Vegas' best player, and the best player of the 2026 postseason, has been Mitch Marner, who was acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs in a sign-and-trade deal last June. Not only is he tied for third in goals during the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs (seven), but he leads all players in points with 21.
“I think the change has helped him,” Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon told reporters on June 1st. “I think our team is deeper and a better team than what he had played on in Toronto. Not that Toronto didn't have real good teams, but you have to have that depth throughout your roster because - to go through three rounds or ultimately, hopefully, four rounds - everybody's got to take their turn… Mitch is playing with tremendous confidence.”
We also can't tell the story of the Vegas Golden Knights without mentioning goalie Carter Hart. He (and four other hockey players) was found not guilty of sexual assault through acquittal in the now infamous Hockey Canada sexual assault scandal. After the ruling, Hart and the other four players were allowed to sign NHL contracts in October 2025 before being reinstated by the league in December. Once he joined the Knights on October 16th, he said that Las Vegas made his transition back into the NHL much smoother.
"I've been able to meet a lot of good people in the community," Hart told ESPN in a recent interview. "I think the Vegas Golden Knights Foundation has done a really good job of making it easy for me to integrate into the community and meet a lot of cool people. Just really fortunate to be here in Vegas. It's a great culture of people. Like I said, I've met a lot of cool people and just very fortunate to be here in Las Vegas and with this group."
The confidence instilled in him by the Las Vegas community has propelled Hart to new heights as a goaltender. He currently has the fourth-best save percentage amongst all goalies who played in at least one game during the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs (.924).
“Obviously, he hadn't played in a couple of years, and we had injuries,” explained Vegas captain Mark Stone. “It was kind of the next man up mentality, and now we're healthy. Only one guy can play, and Carter's played great.”
On the other side, the Hurricanes have been the most dominant team in the postseason. They're a preposterous 12-1 in 13 playoff games. In Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals, they demolished the Montreal Canadiens 6-1 to win the series.
“It’s kind of hard to unpack right now. Like, it's a weird feeling because it's kind of where we all thought we should be. And, I mean our group. So, it's kind of like, we're just where we thought - from the time we came together as a group - that this is where we would be,” said Carolina head coach Rod Brind'Amour. “It's been a long journey for sure. But, [I’m] just really proud of the group.”
This is definitely a departure from the Hurricanes’ recent norm this late in the season. Up until this year, they were 1-12 in their last 13 Eastern Conference Finals games. Now, they're advancing to their first Stanley Cup since 2006, when Rod Brind'Amour was still playing as the Canes' captain.
“I keep saying it, but how hard they work and come every day to work from day one at training camp until now to get this chance, and it's nice that it paid off,” he said. “Obviously, we got one more big, big hurdle here to go through, but [we’re] trying to enjoy this.”
Carolina made it this far because of its defensive prowess. They’re allowing the second-fewest shots per game in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs (22.31). That shouldn't come as much of a surprise considering they were the only NHL team to allow fewer than 2,000 shots on goal this season (1,962).
“We’re playing well back there,” Carolina defenseman Jaccob Slavin said last Thursday. ”And the forwards. We talk all the time about playing as a five-man unit, and they’re doing a great job, allowing us to be tight-gapped, allowing us to be aggressive.”
Hurricanes goalie Frederik Andersen is also having something of a career resurgence after signing a one-year contract extension with Carolina last May. He is allowing the fewest goals per game amongst playoff netminders (1.41), while posting the third-highest save percentage this postseason (.931).
“I think I’m just in a good spot mentally, letting the game come to me, and I just feel like I have an answer for every situation,” he told NHL.com. “Just playing in the moment, really, has been a big key for me. Not really worrying about the result, just trying to be process-focused. Really, something that I think when I’m at my best, I’m good at honing in on.”
With both goalies at the top of their game and only five combined losses between these teams - the fewest between Stanley Cup Finalists since 1987 - this is sure to be a fantastic series. As explained by John Tortorella, the Stanley Cup Finals will feel different than the rest of the postseason.
"Now the real stuff starts," Tortorella said. "I consider the first three round playoffs. Now, we're playing for the Stanley Cup."
Prediction for Vegas Golden Knights (+125) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-150)
From an individual talent standpoint, it feels pretty obvious that the Golden Knights have the upper hand in this series. The top two skaters, in terms of points, play for Vegas: Mitch Marner (21) and Jack Eichel (18). Meanwhile, three of the four best scorers in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs are members of the Golden Knights’ roster: Pavel Dorofeyev (10 goals), Brett Howden (10 goals), and Mitch Marner (seven goals).
The goaltending battle will be absolutely massive. Nothing is more important in the Stanley Cup Playoffs than a hot goalie. As good as Frederik Andersen has been, Carter Hart has been better because of how he has performed against elite competition. Hart only gave up seven goals to the best offensive team in the NHL, the Colorado Avalanche. While Andersen has only allowed 20 goals in 13 postseason games, he is susceptible to a bad outing. Just look at the Game One performance he had against the Canadiens, where he allowed five goals on 21 shot attempts. For that reason, Hart has a slight edge over Andersen.
The Canes might not allow a lot of shots on goal, but part of that has to do with the teams they have faced in the playoffs. Two of those groups - the Flyers and Canadiens - were ranked in the bottom ten in the NHL this season in shots on goal per game (25.46 and 26.29, respectively). While the Golden Knights have basically been as good as Carolina at preventing shot attempts, they had to face the Avalanche and the Ducks, who were first and third in shot attempts per game this season. The Hurricanes will not hold the Golden Knights to 22.3 shots per game as they have done through the first three rounds of the playoffs.
Vegas is more battle-tested and talented than Carolina. On top of that, the Knights have much more experience in this spot. Only three members of the Hurricanes' roster have played in a Stanley Cup Final. Meanwhile, 11 Golden Knights players were on the team when they won the 2023 Stanley Cup. Their experience on the biggest stage, coupled with their talent, will lead Vegas to its second Stanley Cup victory.
Prediction: Golden Knights win the series in six games.
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