We could have our first division winner of the season on Sunday, when the 11-2 New England Patriots play host to the 9-4 Buffalo Bills. Since the Pats won the first matchup between these two teams, they can clinch the AFC East Championship with a win over the Bills.

Despite their record and the fact that they beat Buffalo on the road earlier this year, the Patriots are not favored in this game. According to Bet365, Buffalo is favored by a point this weekend, which has given New England some bulletin board material and extra motivation.

“I think anytime you're at home and you're an underdog, it gives you something to play for a little bit,” explained Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. “I think you’re never really worried about - whatever - the underdog and whatever they set the line at. It's us versus them, regardless. When we put the ball down, it's going to be 0-0 for 60 minutes. We know we’ve got to play a full game.”

The good news for New England is that it has had extra time to prepare for this game. The Pats have had 13 days to get ready for this matchup thanks to a late-season bye week.

“I think we're going to meet this morning, and we're going to go over the stuff that we feel like we've done well up until this point,” head coach Mike Vrabel said during a December 8th interview. “Talk about the things that we can improve, that we have to improve, but not lose sight of the things that we've done well. Try to be positive but truthful, I think, is something that we're going to focus on."

Even if the Pats lose this game, they can still clinch a postseason berth this weekend. Should the Houston Texans lose to the Arizona Cardinals, New England will earn a spot in the 2026 NFL Playoffs.

“We only have 17 opportunities, right? So, all of that has to be valuable prep,” Vrabel told reporters on Wednesday. “They all count the same at the end. This is a great stage that we put ourselves on, and that's exciting, but, obviously, hopefully, we've been able to draw from different opportunities that we've had to help us.”

As divisional opponents, both of these teams have familiarity with one another. Mike Vrabel knows what the Bills are capable of.

“This is a team that, again, [has an] MVP quarterback [and a] very, very good run scheme. They do a good job with the scheme, but they also do a great job with execution,” he said during a recent interview. “They block people. The runner runs to daylight. Everybody's at the point of attack. And then, when they get tired of doing that, then they put the ball in Josh Allen's hands and let him create. Play action, move the pocket, or take off and scramble. And again, he's dangerous. He is never rattled, and he gives them a chance throughout the game and late in the game to win.”

We all saw that type of game from the Bills and Josh Allen last weekend in a 39-34 comeback win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Allen played like an MVP in that contest with 251 passing yards, 78 rushing yards, and four total touchdowns.

“It's actually really lit. You know what I'm saying,” laughed Bills defensive back Christian Benford after the game. “It's actually really cool to experience that. Again, blessed to have him on our team. Blessed to play with him… It's really cool. Like, the plays that he makes are really like some Madden stuff that you would do in Madden, playing against your little brother or something. He creates those plays in real life, and it's really awesome.”

Despite trailing by ten points in the fourth quarter of that game, Buffalo scored three straight touchdowns to secure the win.

“The toughness of the football team was on display - full display - taking it down to the wire,” said head coach Sean McDermott during the Week 14 postgame press conference. “I thought the coaching staff did a phenomenal job of adjusting throughout the game and then coming up with some big plays obviously at the end of the game, with CB (Christian Benford), with Jordan Phillips with the tip pass, [the] A.J. (Epenesa) interception, and then Josh's play overall.”

One key to victory for the Bills this weekend will be limiting the production of Drake Maye, who is playing like an MVP candidate this season. He's second in passing yards (3,412), third in passing TDs (23), and second in passer rating (111.9).

“Coming from the NFC, I wasn't really paying attention to Drake, but the guy's a baller, man,” said Buffalo linebacker Shaq Thompson. “He's an all-around special talent at quarterback. He can throw, he can run, he makes great decisions. For me, he definitely got a lot better since his rookie year, right? I mean, that's what you want to see in a franchise quarterback. That's what you want to see - kind of - in any player, so he has my respect.”

The biggest factor in the game will be how well Buffalo takes care of the football. The Bills' three turnovers were a major reason why they lost the first time these teams met in Week Five.

“[It] ultimately comes down to me making the best decision for the football team. And when the ball's in my hands, I’ve got to make sure that I'm remembering that,” Josh Allen said on Wednesday. “They're a really good football team. If we go back, we can say we turned it over, I think, three times that game. You're not going to win many football games doing that. We’ve got to have all hands on deck, and we’re going to need everybody this week.”

Prediction for Buffalo Bills (-1) @ New England Patriots

There's a chance that the weather could end up affecting this game. The temperature will be in the 30s, and meteorologists are expecting strong winds and even some possible snow flurries. That usually calls for ground-and-pound football, which feeds into the Bills' offensive game plan. Buffalo has the top-ranked rushing attack in the National Football League (157.8 yards per game), while the Patriots are 21st in that category (112.9 rushing yards per game). As mentioned previously, protecting the football will be a deciding factor in this matchup. Considering the Bills average at least one giveaway per game, it seems likely Buffalo's offense will make at least one mistake in this game. They just need to hope it doesn't end up resulting in seven points. If the Bills only turn the ball over once this weekend, then they should come out on top in this game.

Prediction: Bills 23 - 21 Patriots

How to watch Buffalo Bills (-1) @ New England Patriots

Bills @ Patriots starts at 1:00 p.m. EDT at Gillette Stadium. You can watch it on CBS or stream it on the Paramount+ app or YouTubeTV.

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