As we have long expected, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs will go head-to-head in the Western Conference Finals after emerging as the two best teams in the NBA record-wise during the 2025-26 season. Tonight, the best-of-seven series kicks off in Oklahoma City as the Thunder try to advance to the NBA Finals for a second straight year. However, they’ll have their hands full with a Spurs squad that took a significant step forward this season.

San Antonio won back-to-back games against the Minnesota Timberwolves after the series was tied 2-2 to earn a spot in the Western Conference Finals. In the series-clinching Game Six win, the Spurs crushed the Timberwolves 139-109 behind a 32-point outing from guard Stephon Castle.

"I mean, it feels good. It's definitely a blessing," Castle said during the postgame press conference. "I feel like there's somebody on our team that breaks some type of record every couple of games. Just to be a part of that [is] definitely a good feeling, though."

Meanwhile, French superstar and San Antonio center Victor Wembanyama was held in check for most of the series, averaging 19.8 points, 12 rebounds, and 4.2 blocks per game. It didn't seem to matter, though, because the Spurs moved on to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in nine years.

“[It] feels like everybody's taking pleasure in executing the game plan. And personally, this series was probably the most fun I had on defense,” Wembanyama said after Game Six. “Like, everybody was on a string. Everybody was connected. I was about to go help somebody because I know my teammate has my back, and like everybody, just went together. And that's the most fun I had on defense.”

On the other side, the Thunder made quick work of the Los Angeles Lakers in their second-round series, sweeping them in four games to make it back to the Western Conference Finals. Despite LA's best efforts, OKC defeated the Lakers on the road in Game Four, 115-110.

“I thought Caruso's shots in the first quarter really kept us afloat at a time where we weren't great,” Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault said after Game Four. “We didn't play great tonight. It was probably our worst execution game of the playoffs, but when you're down by three, it doesn't matter how you got there. Or, when you're tied with five to go or whatever, it doesn't matter how you got there. You’ve just got to be present and play out the rest of the game with your best punch, and I thought we did a nice job of that tonight. I thought the last six minutes of the game was our best six minutes.”

Up to this point, the Oklahoma City is undefeated in the 2026 NBA Playoffs. They're the eighth team since 2003 to sweep their first two postseason opponents.

“Winning eight playoff games is really hard. Winning a playoff game is really hard,” Daigneault explained. “It requires unbelievable effort, focus, execution, and connectedness. We’ve been very, very good… I also think the wind's going to be in your face in a playoff game for different reasons at different times, and you've got to be able to re-center, and I thought we did that exceptionally well tonight.”

Though the organization is happy with back-to-back sweeps, the time off has been a detriment to the Thunder, as explained by OKC guard and 2025-26 MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

“That's been tough, personally, trying to battle the rust," SGA said during an interview after Game Four. "The rust has been taking its toll on me. [I've gotta] stay in the gym. Trust the work. It’ll all even out."

Meanwhile, Victor Wembanyama has been relishing the opportunity to go against the defending champs in the Western Conference Finals. Then again, the Spurs probably have some extra confidence after going 4-1 against OKC during the regular season.

"Of course, we're confident, but we need to keep the right confidence level," he told reporters on May 16th. "It's gonna be the same as usual: prepare, take care of your body, scout, watch the film, [and] practice."

Perhaps what stands out the most to OKC is how the Spurs were responsible for four of their 18 regular-season losses. That fact ensures the Thunder will not overlook San Antonio.

“They're really good on both ends. They've got great top-end talent. They’ve got great depth. They can attack you in a number of ways on both ends of the floor… It's a team that we have high respect for and understand what they're capable of,” Daigneault said yesterday. “It's fitting because both teams earned their way here. I mean, that's how it works… It's an opponent that is incredibly worthy. And, we're going to need to be our best to beat, and we understand that.”

Prediction for San Antonio Spurs (+205) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-250)

In the four games where both Wembanyama and SGA were on the court for their teams, the Thunder went 1-3 because they were mediocre from beyond the arc. Excluding the February 4th matchup between San Antonio and OKC that SGA didn't play in, the Thunder only made 30.5% of their three-pointers against the Spurs this season. We shouldn't expect Oklahoma City, which is tied with San Antonio for third among playoff teams in three-point efficiency (38.4%), to be as good as they have been beyond the arc up to this point.

The Thunder will need to pound the paint, which will understandably be difficult with Victor Wembanyama manning the middle. After all, the Spurs were tied for sixth in paint points allowed per game during the regular season (46.0). Hell, they've been even better in the playoffs, holding opponents to 42.4 paint points per game. And that came against really good low-post teams like the Trail Blazers and the Timberwolves.

Though the Spurs have the players needed to beat the Thunder, my money is still on OKC. They're battle-tested and can win in big spots, while the Spurs are still young and learning how to handle playoff success. More importantly, the Thunder are the deepest team in the NBA and can kill you with a different guy every night. Oklahoma City's ability to lean on its bench will cause problems for the Spurs, who can’t start Victor Wembanyama and Dylan Harper every minute of every game this series. With their starters off the court, San Antonio’s backups will be overwhelmed by OKC’s depth.

Prediction: Thunder win the series in seven games.

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