No favourite has won the race since Justify in 2018
Sovereignty won coming out of gate 16 in 2025
Recommended bet: Further Ado to win at 5/1 with LiveScore Bet
Saturday night will be headlined by the biggest race in the US racing calendar, the Kentucky Derby, and a full field of 20 looks set to go to post.
In recent years, the favourite has had a poor record, with Justify being the last to win in 2018.
Commandment and Renegade are jostling for favouritism this year, although being drawn in gate 1 looks to be a significant negative to the latter's chances too. With this in mind it is worth looking elsewhere for the winner this year.
The latest Kentucky Derby odds are available on LiveScore Bet.
Setting the scene
The biggest prize in American Flat racing is up for grabs on Saturday night with all eyes on Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby. Stallions are made here and a case can be made for many of the runners to write themselves in the history books.
Renegade could be the favourite and has had a good prep coming into the race, winning on both his starts this year. But having to come out of gate 1 is a significant hindrance, and Irad Ortiz Jr will have to use all of his tactical nous to negotiate a trip from that draw and be able to win the race.
The Florida Derby has been a good prep race for this in recent years, and from this year's race, the first three home go against each other once more in the form of Commandment, The Puma and Chief Wallabee.
Commandment won on that occasion, but there was very little to separate the three, and with all being drawn reasonably well, it would not be a surprise to see all three of them involved at the finish again.
Further Ado finished a close second to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby, but has since gone on to win the Bluegrass Stakes by 11 lengths, and is another with a live chance.
So Happy and Potente finished first and second in the Santa Anita Derby, which looks a strong piece of form.
There is international interest with Six Speed coming over from the Middle East, and Danon Bourbon and Wonder Dean being trained in Japan.
Wonder Dean won the UAE Derby on his last start, a race won by Forever Young on his route to the Kentucky Derby. Danon Bourbon is a Kentucky-bred horse, and his pedigree suggests he should be very well suited to running round Churchill Downs, with his sire Maxfield, being very good at the course.
The latest Kentucky Derby odds are available on LiveScore Bet.
Big race stats
The Florida Derby produced the winner of the Kentucky Derby for the 26th time last year, three more than any other race, with the Blue Grass Stakes coming in second.
The last horse to win coming from the Blue Grass Stakes was Street Sense in 2007.
The last favourite to win the race was Justify in 2018.
The last horse to win from gate 1 was Ferdinand in 1986.
Gate 17 has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner.
Gate 5 has produced the most winners of the Kentucky Derby with 10.
Into Mischief has sired three winners of the Kentucky Derby and is looking to add a record breaking fourth.
The latest Kentucky Derby odds are available on LiveScore Bet.
Prediction
Current favourite Renegade looks to have it all to do being drawn in gate 1, and if the break does not work in his favour it will be nigh on impossible for him to win, and as such it is best to look elsewhere.
Commandment, The Puma and Chief Wallabee hold strong form claims following their Florida Derby run, but they finished close to each other, and it would be a surprise if one of them is able to improve enough to what is likely to be needed on Saturday.
Further Ado blitzed the field on his last start in the Blue Grass Stakes, and although it was not the strongest field, he recorded a Beyer Speed Figure of 106 for the run, the highest any of the runners set to go to post have achieved.
His sire Gun Runner has yet to sire a winner of the Kentucky Derby, but has gone close with Sierra Leone coming second in 2024. Gun Runner himself finished third in the race in 2016.
With all this said, Further Ado looks to have the right profile for the race, and can give further wins to John Velazquez and Brad Cox in the Kentucky Derby.
Back Further Ado to win the Kentucky Derby at 5/1 with LiveScore Bet.
The latest Kentucky Derby odds are available on LiveScore Bet.
