RBC Canadian Open Analysis
Summary of Tips:
Gold Medal Pick - Sam Burns 12/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Silver Medal Pick - Nicolai Højgaard 33/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Bronze Medal Pick - Eric Cole 40/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Longshot to Watch - Zach Bauchou 90/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
*Odds correct when posting
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Introduction & Course Breakdown
Next up, we head to Canada for the first national Open of the calendar year, the RBC Canadian Open, which returns to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley for the second consecutive season. Last year, Ryan Fox held off Sam Burns, our selection, in a playoff to secure his second PGA Tour victory of the season in a high-scoring affair.
TPC Toronto is a par-70 layout that plays longer than the average PGA Tour venue following its renovation to join the circuit, measuring just over 7,400 yards. While it is classified as a parkland course, it remains relatively exposed to the elements, meaning weather can still have a significant impact on scoring.
Last year, both driving distance (+4%) and driving accuracy (+7%pts) performed above PGA Tour norms, helped in part by fairways that are approximately +14% wider than average. That said, missing those fairways can still be costly, with the rough proving more penal than tour average and carrying a greater impact on scoring.
In addition to improved driving statistics, greens in regulation were an eye-catching +11%pts above the PGA Tour average. The large green complexes, which average around 6,500 square feet, certainly contributed to that figure, although the softer conditions also played a role. Early indications suggest tournament organisers are aiming for a much firmer and faster setup this year, which could make the challenge significantly different but there is already some rain forecast.
According to DataGolf, comparable venues include Carnoustie Golf Links, host of the 2018 The Open Championship, Castle Pines Golf Club, which hosted the 2024 BMW Championship, and The Summit Club, former home of the CJ Cup.
Last Years Top-5 Trends
Instead of focusing on winner trends this week, I’m going to look at the players who finished inside the top-5 at last year’s RBC Canadian Open.
Starting with strokes gained data from the week, it’s surprising to see that approach play didn’t have a huge impact on finishing position. The top-5 averaged a ranking of just 28th in strokes gained: approach, likely aided by how easy the greens were to hit under last year’s conditions.
The more important combination appeared to be strong driving and a hot putter. Off the tee, only eventual champion Ryan Fox ranked outside the top-30, and even then he was only 31st. Putting was also a key differentiator, with every member of the top five ranking inside the top-10 except Fox, who still ranked a respectable 16th. The data suggests that if a player can excel off the tee and on the greens, they can score extremely well around TPC Toronto without necessarily needing elite performances in every other area of their game.
Looking at recent form, four of the five players who finished inside the top five had recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous starts, indicating that current form still carries some predictive value.
Course history at the Canadian Open, however, appears to be less important. Only the top two finishers had previously recorded a top-10 at the event, suggesting that prior success in the RBC Canadian Open is far from a prerequisite for contending.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Putting 5-15ft
Strokes Gained: Approach (Key yardages 100-150 & >200)
Par 4 scoring
Birdies or Better %
Looking at the key stats for this course, and based on the profile of last year’s top five finishers, I’ve focused on the metrics that appeared to be the biggest drivers of success. As a result, I’ve selected strokes gained: off-the-tee and putting as my two primary statistics.
With the length of the course and the width of the fairways, being strong off the tee should provide a significant advantage. However, I’ve avoided focusing purely on driving distance, as there is still a substantial penalty for finding the thick rough. As highlighted by last year’s leaderboard, putting is also likely to be crucial, particularly if wet weather softens the course and turns it into more of a target-golf test. For that reason, I’ve focused on putting from 5–15 feet, the key scoring range for converting birdie opportunities.
Next up is approach play. While it didn’t appear quite as important as the two metrics above last year, it still has the potential to play a major role. Two of the players involved in the playoff ranked inside the top 12 for approach that week, and if the greens firm up, the importance of precise iron play will only increase. Key yardages are 100–150 yards, with approximately 33% of approaches coming from this range last year, well above the PGA Tour average. Approaches from 200+ yards are also important, accounting for around 28% of approach shots, helped by two lengthy par 3s.
For my final two metrics, I’ve gone with a pair of scoring statistics. As I often do on par-70 layouts, I’ve included par-4 scoring due to the sheer number of par 4s players will face. Alongside that, I’ve selected birdie or better percentage, as if scoring conditions are favourable again, I want players who consistently create and convert scoring opportunities.
Stats Model - Top 10
Matt Fitzpatrick
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Collin Morikawa
Jacob Bridgeman
Johnny Keefer
Sam Burns
Keith Mitchell
Nicolai Højgaard
Wyndham Clark
Tommy Fleetwood
RBC Canadian Open Tips:
Gold Medal Pick: Sam Burns 12/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
For my gold medal pick, I’m sticking with my man from last year, Sam Burns. Burns ranks 6th in my stats model, and his elite putting should be a huge asset this week, currently sitting 2nd on tour from 5–15 feet.
In addition to that, he remains one of the better scorers on tour, ranking 15th in birdie or better percentage and an impressive 6th in par-4 scoring. His driving numbers are solid as well, ranking just outside the top 50. While his season-long approach statistics don’t immediately jump off the page, that part of his game appears to be trending in the right direction. He has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five starts, including gaining more than five strokes with his irons at last week's Memorial Tournament.
His recent form is another major positive. Burns hasn’t finished outside the top 40 in any of his last eight starts, recording four top-20 finishes during that stretch and capping it off with a 4th-place finish last week.
While course form at the Canadian Open isn't necessarily a prerequisite for success, Burns does have two previous top-10 finishes in the event, providing another encouraging tick in the box heading into this week.
Silver Medal Pick: Nicolai Højgaard 33/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
For my silver medal pick, I’ve gone with Nicolai Højgaard. While he missed the cut here last year, I think his current profile is a near-perfect fit for this golf course.
Højgaard ranks 8th in my stats model and, while he doesn’t necessarily jump off the page in any one category, he is extremely solid across the board. That consistency is highlighted by his ranking of 14th in strokes gained: tee-to-green this season.
One of his biggest strengths is his power off the tee. Højgaard is among the longer hitters on tour, and that could prove a major advantage this week if he can keep the ball in play. He also ranks 18th in approach and has shown throughout his career that he is capable of getting extremely hot with the putter when confidence is high.
His recent form has been a little mixed, but there have still been some standout performances, including two runner-up finishes this season. With this already looking like a breakthrough year, he’ll be desperate to secure his first PGA Tour victory and continue building on what has been the best season of his career to date.
Bronze Medal Pick: Eric Cole 40/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Next up, I’ve gone with the hottest player on tour without a win in recent weeks, Eric Cole. Cole has recorded four top-10 finishes in his last five starts and looks like he’s knocking firmly on the door of a maiden PGA Tour victory.
Cole ranks 15th in my stats model and really shines in the key scoring metrics. He currently sits 17th in par-4 scoring and 14th in birdie or better percentage, both of which should be crucial this week. He’s also one of the better putters on tour, ranking 15th from 5–15 feet this season.
While his season-long rankings for approach play and off-the-tee performance don’t immediately stand out, those numbers look significantly stronger when focusing on recent form. He has gained strokes on approach in each of his last six events and has gained off the tee in three of his last five starts, which goes a long way to explaining his excellent run of results.
Adding further confidence, Cole already has a top-10 finish in the Canadian Open on his résumé. Given the way he’s trending, it feels like only a matter of time before he finally breaks through for his first PGA Tour win.
Longshot to Watch: Zach Bauchou 90/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet)
Finally, I’ve gone with another player in strong form, Zach Bauchou, who actually sits one place higher in my model than Eric Cole, ranking 14th overall.
Bauchou has started to find his feet in his maiden PGA Tour season, recording top-25 finishes in each of his last four starts, including a top-10. His recent ball-striking numbers have been particularly encouraging, having gained strokes on approach in each of his last four events. He also ranks inside the top 50 on tour for approaches from 100–150 yards, one of the key distances this week.
From a scoring perspective, par 4s appear to be a real strength, with Bauchou currently ranking 17th on tour in par-4 scoring. He has also shown he can keep pace in low-scoring events, highlighted by his 6th-place finish at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson where he reached 20-under par. That performance is backed up by a top-50 ranking in birdie or better percentage.
Overall, when you combine his recent form with a statistical profile that matches up nicely to the demands of this course, Bauchou looks like a very appealing longshot option this week.
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