Charles Schwab Challenge Analysis
Summary of Tips:
Gold Medal Pick - Rickie Fowler 18/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 2.75pts E/W
Silver Medal Pick - Harry Hall 35/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1.5pt E/W
Bronze Medal Pick - Austin Eckroat 90/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.75pts E/W
Longshot to Watch - Sam Ryder 125/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.5pts E/W
*Odds correct when posting
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Introduction & Course Breakdown
For week two of the Texas swing, we head to Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. In last year’s event, Ben Griffin held off Matti Schmid to claim his second victory of the season, effectively securing his place on the Ryder Cup team.
Colonial has hosted one of the longest-running events on the PGA Tour, dating all the way back to 1946. The course itself plays around tour-average length at roughly 7,200 yards, although that figure is skewed slightly by a single par 5 stretching to around 630 yards and all four par 3s measuring over 190 yards. On the flip side, there are seven par 4s under 450 yards, which shifts the emphasis away from pure power.
Because of that, driving distance isn’t as important here, trending around -2% below PGA Tour average. Instead, Colonial places a far greater premium on positioning and strategy off the tee, with fairways approximately six yards narrower than average. Despite the shorter yardage, this is far from an easy test. Reaching double digits under par often gives players a strong chance to win, while the cut line has averaged around +2 over the last five years.
Approach play is where players can really separate themselves. Greens in regulation sit around -7pts below tour average, largely due to the small greens, which average roughly 5,000 square feet, significantly smaller than PGA Tour norm. If players do consistently find these greens, strong putters can take full advantage, which becomes an important theme when analysing previous winners.
One notable stretch to keep an eye on is holes 3–5, famously known as the “Horrible Horseshoe.” Since 2003, it has consistently played over par and remains one of the toughest three-hole stretches outside of major championship venues.
According to DataGolf, comparable courses include Royal Birkdale Golf Club, host of the 2017 The Open Championship and again this year, making this leaderboard potentially useful for future Open clues. Another strong comparison is Sea Island Golf Club, host venue of the RSM Classic, with both courses rewarding precision, strong iron play, and quality putting over outright power.
Last 5 Years Winner Trends
Looking at previous winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge, it’s clear that course form isn’t essential to lifting the trophy. Only two of the last five winners had recorded a previous top-10 finish at Colonial before winning, with several missed cuts scattered between them.
Current form, however, appears far more important. All but Davis Riley had recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous five starts. Three players had multiple top-10s during that stretch, while two arrived having already won within their last five events, highlighting how strong recent form can be a key indicator for potential winners here.
Analysing the strokes gained profiles of recent champions also reinforces the importance of putting. As mentioned previously, players can really separate themselves on the greens at Colonial, with the average putting rank of the last five winners sitting at 4th for the week.
Approach play also stands out as crucial, with the average ranking for winners being 12th. That number is actually dragged down slightly by Ben Griffin, who ranked only 32nd in approach during his victory but compensated with an elite short game performance. Realistically though, that’s probably not the profile we want to target, as Griffin was the only recent winner to rank inside the top 35 in strokes gained: around the green.
Off the tee, performance also appears important, with winners averaging a rank of 14th. Interestingly, despite Colonial not favouring pure power, the average driving distance rank of winners during their victory weeks was still 16th. That’s likely because the more accurate longer hitters can continue using driver while others are forced to club down for position. Pure driving accuracy, meanwhile, doesn’t seem quite as critical, with winners averaging around 30th in that category. As long as players miss in the correct areas, the rough generally isn’t overly penal.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach (Key yardages 100-150 & 150-175)
Putting 5-15ft
Good Drives Gained %
Par 4 scoring
Birdies or Better %
For my first key stat this week, I’ve gone with approach play. The greens at Colonial are both small and difficult to hit, but if players can consistently find them it creates plenty of scoring opportunities, especially for elite putters.
The key yardages this week are 100–150 yards, largely due to the number of shorter par 4s and the three-shot par 5, with around 30% of approaches coming from this range. That places a premium on elite wedge play. In addition, approaches from 150–175 yards are also important, accounting for roughly 22% of shots, well above PGA Tour average.
To complement approach play, and based on the profiles of previous winners, I’ve also included putting from 5–15 feet. These are the crucial scoring distances for converting birdie chances and, at times, saving par. Alongside that, I’ve added good drives gained percentage because, as mentioned earlier, simply hitting fairways isn’t essential here as long as players are still positioning themselves to hit greens in regulation.
My final two metrics focus on scoring. First is par-4 scoring, which is particularly important on a par-70 layout featuring 12 par 4s. Players need to consistently gain strokes across these holes to contend. Finally, I’ve included birdie or better percentage. With scoring chances likely to be limited, targeting players who consistently create and convert opportunities feels crucial this week.
Stats Model - Top 10
Ludvig Åberg
Sam Ryder
Rickie Fowler
Ryan Gerard
Russell Henley
Ryo Hisatsune
Akshay Bhatia
Austin Smotherman
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Johnny Keefer
Charles Schwab Challenge Tips:
Gold Medal Pick: Rickie Fowler 18/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 2.75pts E/W
For my gold medal pick this week, I’ve gone with Rickie Fowler, who ranks 3rd in my stats model. While he disappointed at the PGA Championship where I backed him, he still arrived there in excellent form having recorded three consecutive top-10 finishes beforehand.
Looking at the underlying numbers, Fowler profiles really well for Colonial Country Club. He currently ranks 7th in par-4 scoring and 29th in birdie or better percentage, which should give him plenty of opportunities to climb the leaderboard on a course where scoring chances can be limited.
He also ranks 15th in putting from 5–15 feet and 24th in good drives gained, both key metrics for this layout. While his season-long approach numbers don’t immediately stand out, currently ranking 44th, his iron play has noticeably improved over his last four starts, including at the PGA Championship, which is encouraging heading into a course where approach play is crucial.
To round things off, Fowler also has some strong course form, finishing as high as 6th here across his last three appearances and placing 16th on his most recent visit.
Silver Medal Pick: Harry Hall 35/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 1.5pt E/W
Next up, I’ve gone with Harry Hall, who seems to have a real affinity for Colonial, recording two top-10 finishes in just three appearances here.
Hall is well known for his putting ability and currently ranks 33rd on tour this season from 5–15 feet. He also brings strong approach play into the week, particularly with his wedges, ranking 12th from 150–175 yards, a key distance given over 20% of approaches are expected to come from that range.
He’s also excellent at creating scoring chances, sitting 26th in birdie or better percentage this season, which should suit a course where opportunities can be limited and need to be capitalised on.
Although he’s recorded just one top-10 finish in his last five starts, Hall has still put together an encouraging season overall with two additional top-10 finishes. Returning to a venue that clearly suits his eye could be the perfect recipe for another strong performance this week.
Bronze Medal Pick: Austin Eckroat 90/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.75pts E/W
In bronze, I’ve gone with Austin Eckroat, a player who was heavily tipped by many last week and is steadily beginning to build some real momentum. Across his last four starts, he’s recorded three top-20 finishes, including two top-10s.
He sits just outside the top 10 in my model rankings and profiles extremely well statistically for Colonial . Eckroat ranks 29th in approach overall, including the same ranking from 100–150 yards, while excelling from 150–175 yards where he sits 2nd on tour, an especially important range this week.
His putting numbers are also encouraging. He ranks 45th from 5–15 feet overall, including an impressive 3rd from 10–15 feet specifically. The scoring metrics back him up too, ranking 11th in par-4 scoring and 27th in birdie or better percentage.
Overall, the statistical profile is extremely promising, and to add further confidence he’s already recorded a top-20 finish here back in 2023. At this sort of price, it feels very close to an automatic bet.
Longshot to Watch: Sam Ryder 125/1 (6 Places – LiveScoreBet) – 0.5pts E/W
My longshot this week is a complete stats-model play, as I’ve backed Sam Ryder.
Ryder ranks 2nd in my model this week yet is still available at triple-digit odds. While his overall form this season hasn’t been great, recording only two top-25 finishes, his statistical profile for Colonial looks extremely promising.
He currently ranks 13th in approach play and 11th in putting from 5–15 feet, which are arguably the two most important metrics for success at Colonial. On top of that, he ranks 50th in good drives gained percentage and 7th in par-4 scoring, adding even more confidence to the selection.
It’s worth noting his course history is far from inspiring, having missed four of five cuts here previously. However, given how well his current statistical profile matches the demands of this course, there’s every chance this could finally be the week things click into place.
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