Northern Ireland scored in eight of their 10 internationals last year
NI conceded 10 goals in the five games Dan Ballard missed in 2025
Recommended bet: Both teams to score
Italy are aiming to qualify for their first World Cup since 2014, but they can’t underestimate Northern Ireland after their failure four years ago.
After a potential showdown with Portugal in the playoffs was hyped up, the Italians fell in the semi-final to North Macedonia. Their underwhelming Euro 2024 campaign and struggles in qualifying have added to the negativity around the team going into Thursday’s clash in Bergamo.
Team news
Federico Chiesa has withdrawn from the squad, being replaced by Bologna’s Nicolo Cambiaghi. Gianluigi Donnarumma is one of just five foreign-based players in Gennaro Gattuso’s squad.
Northern Ireland have been dealt two huge blows ahead of this game. Conor Bradley is sidelined for the remainder of Liverpool’s season, so he misses the trip to Bergamo. Sunderland’s Dan Ballard has also been ruled out, taking away two of the few top-flight players from Michael O’Neill’s side.
The latest Italy vs Northern Ireland odds are available at LiveScore Bet
The stats
Italy struggled defensively under Gattuso, beating Israel 5-4 and Estonia 3-1 in qualifying.
Northern Ireland were able to find the net away to Germany last year, holding them to a 1-1 draw in the first-half.
NI had 28 corners across their six qualifying games last year.
O’Neill’s side won the corner count 5-3 in Germany.
Italy gave up at least three corners in home clashes with Israel, Estonia, and Moldova.
Northern Ireland recorded three or more corners in five of their six qualifiers.
The latest Italy vs Northern Ireland odds are available at LiveScore Bet
Prediction
Gattuso’s Italy haven’t fit the usual mould, and their nerves around making the World Cup likely play a part in that. Their 5-4 win over Israel was far from controlled, and they shipped seven goals across their two meetings with Norway.
Northern Ireland showed in their visit to Cologne last year that they weren’t happy to just sit back, as they pegged back the Germans after falling behind. NI were level at 1-1 at half-time, and they won the corner count in that game 5-3.
Northern Ireland are 4/5 to record three or more corners here, a feat they achieved on five occasions in qualifying. They had 28 corners across the six games, and they fell short only in Slovakia, where they were hanging on to a 0-0 draw before conceding in added time.
That kind of defensive display isn’t expected here, with two of NI’s best defenders ruled out. Sunderland’s Dan Ballard is a huge absentee, as they conceded 10 times in the five games he missed last year.
NI should be forced forward at some point, and Italy will give them some encouragement. The hosts conceded at least three corners in home clashes with Israel, Estonia, and Moldova last year, with Moldova recording seven shots on target and six corners in that trip.
NI should look to set pieces for their chances, and both teams could well get on the scoresheet in this clash.
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The latest Italy vs Northern Ireland odds are available at LiveScore Bet
