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League One playoff predictions: Semi-final first legs

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Simon WinterSimon Winter
We preview the first legs of the League One playoff semi-finals (Bradley Collyer/PA)
We preview the first legs of the League One playoff semi-finals (Bradley Collyer/PA)
  • Stevenage have been low on goals this season and were the lowest-scoring (49) club in League One’s top 15.

  • Only three clubs scored more goals in away fixtures than Stockport (33) during the regular League One season.

  • Bolton have lost only twice in 23 home games in League One so far this season.

The League One playoffs commence on Saturday, May 9th, as four of the division’s best sides square off with a place in the Championship on offer for the victor.

Any thoughts of achieving glory at Wembley Stadium need to be pushed aside for the time being however, with the semi-final shakeup taking centre stage first.

First up on Saturday, Stevenage and Stockport collide at Broadhall Way in the first leg of their semi-final tussle at 3 pm, before Bolton and Bradford go toe-to-toe at the Toughsheet Community Stadium at the later time of 8 pm.

Below, we preview both first legs and offer a score prediction for the games, along with some other tips for each game from standout markets.

Stevenage Borough vs Stockport County (Saturday, 3pm)

The latest Stevenage vs Stockport odds are available on LiveScore Bet

The scrappiest of stoppage-time winners from substitute Dan Sweeney against Wigan (1-0) secured a dramatic playoff spot at the death for Stevenage last weekend, though there are concerns about Borough’s overall lack of punch in the final third ahead of Saturday’s semi-final first leg.

Alex Revell’s charges have turned Broadhall Way into a fortress this year and their triumph over the Latics was their ninth victory in 11 assignments at that venue since the end of January. However, their output in attack has remained modest.

Nestled in that impressive run was a 2-1 comeback win over playoff semi-final opponents Stockport (28th Feb), and though Borough would like to produce something similar on Saturday, they might lack the cutting edge to force a result.

Stevenage have scored one or fewer goals in 12 of their last 13 matches and their haul of 49 goals during the regular season meant they were the lowest scoring side among League One’s final top 15 finishers.

In contrast, Stockport registered 71 times in their 46 fixtures, notching 3+ goals in 50% of their last ten games alone, including in their fine final-day success at Barnsley (3-1). County’s superior firepower could tell here.

Stockport boss Dave Challinor must decide what to do with leading marksman Kyle Wooten on Saturday. The striker has been playing as an emergency centre half in the face of a defensive injury crisis, though Challinor will be tempted to restore him to County’s frontline here.

Score prediction: Stevenage 1-2 Stockport County

Other Stevenage Borough vs Stockport County Betting Tips:

Adama Sidibeh to have 0.5 shots on target

Stockport attacker Sidibeh has made a decent impact since joining the club in January. He’s been averaging 2.79 shots and 1.31 shots on target per 90 minutes in League One, and the 27-year-old landed two accurate attempts in two of his last three starts.

Both teams to score – Yes

Both Stevenage and Stockport managed to score in each of the clubs’ two encounters during the regular campaign, while six of County’s last eight matches in League One have also produced action at both ends. BTTS has also landed in six of County’s last away games in the division.

Bolton Wanderers vs Bradford City (Saturday, 8pm)

The latest Bolton vs Bradford City odds are available on LiveScore Bet

Bolton’s frustrating 3-2 reverse at home to a more clinical Luton on the final day of the regular League One season saw them leapfrogged at the death by Bradford, handing their playoff semi-final rivals home advantage for the second leg.

However, that loss to the Hatters was something of an anomalous event and was only Wanderers’ second defeat of the campaign in 23 home fixtures.

Bolton averaged 2.00 points and 2.04 goals per game at the Toughsheet Community Stadium between August and early May, and the Trotters are favourites to harness home advantage again when poor travellers Bradford visit on Saturday.

In Amario Cozier-Duberry, Mason Burstow, Sam Dalby, Ibrahim Cissoko and February arrival Johnny Kenny, Bolton have enviable quality and variety in forward areas, and that should strengthen their chances even further.

In addition, this Bradford side were turned over in an alarmingly high nine of their last 14 away games of the season, and their final day flourish at Exeter (2-1) wasn’t enough to put any kind of positive spin on their dismal travel log. The Bantams could struggle on the road again here.

Score prediction: Bolton Wanderers 2-0 Bradford City

Other Bolton Wanderers vs Bradford City Betting Tips:

Amario Cozier-Duberry to score or assist

A graduate of Arsenal’s Hale Academy, Amario Cozier-Duberry has been dynamite for Bolton during his season-long loan from Brighton. The winger has chipped in with 18 goal involvements (8G, 10A) in 34 appearances in League One this term, and has been good for either a goal or an assist for every 147.3 minutes he's spent on the pitch. The talented 20-year-old could do some more damage against Bradford.

Sam Walker to make over 3.5 saves

Bolton have peppered their visitors with 23+ shots in four of their last five home assignments, figures that suggest Bradford keeper Sam Walker could be in for a busy evening in Greater Manchester. The 34-year-old stopper has been averaging 2.24 saves per 90 minutes this season, however, Walker could be tested more often by a formidable Bolton frontline on Saturday.

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League One playoff predictions: Semi-final first legs