The EFL Championship Playoff Lottery

The EFL Championship season can only be described as a war of attrition. 46 games to decide which two teams are automatically promoted to the promised land of the Premier League, that number of matches also dictates which three teams subsequently drop out of the second tier.

However, that does not mean the end of the campaign for the four teams that finished anywhere between third and sixth in the final Championship table. Instead, their efforts have purchased a golden ticket to the playoffs that follow.

A pair of two-legged semi-finals working out who gets to Wembley to play in ‘football’s richest game’ and whoever comes out on top will earn the remaining space in the following season’s edition of the Premier League.

A format that has been in place for more than 30 years and one that from next season will be extended to let two more teams into the playoff mix. Which means with this being the final campaign of four teams involved, it is the right time to ask an important question:

Does finishing third in the table guarantee you victory in the playoff final?

If we look at those teams that have won it since 1990, we can first get an idea of which teams have come out on top:

seed = playoff ranking (not league position)

A LOOK TO THE PAST

Before we take a deeper dive into the analysis, there is an important distinction between position and seed. In what you would consider a ‘normal’ second-tier season, the playoffs would be open to teams who finish between third and sixth.

On this logic, the third-place team would be the top seed (1^st), the sixth place would be the bottom seed (4^th). However, there have been two occasions where different positions have been good enough for the playoffs:

1990/91 season – The playoffs were between the teams that finished fourth and seventh in the Second Division table. Therefore, fourth would be the top seed (1^st) and seventh would be the bottom seed (4^th).

1994/95 season – The playoffs were between the teams that finished second and fifth in the First Division table. Therefore, second would be the top seed (1^st) and fifth would be the bottom seed (4^th)

It should also be noted that there have been 36 instances of the playoffs being held with a one-off final since the 1989/1990 season but there have been a trio of playoff winners before this in the three seasons prior.

In the 1986/87 and 1987/88 seasons, it was played between three Second Division teams and the lowest non-relegated First Division side, where firstly Charlton kept their status and then Middlesbrough gained promotion at the expense of top-tier Chelsea.

The following season saw Blackburn and Crystal Palace contest the playoff final as the Second Division also welcomed teams who finished between third and sixth in the table. The only difference here is that the Eagles won over two legs rather than a one-off showpiece event.

From the 1995/96 season, the playoffs have reverted back to the existing format that creates endless amount of drama each May and now that the seedings have been normalised, we can see how each of them performs when it comes to winning the second-tier playoffs.

NOT A GUARANTEE

Although on the surface it may make good reading for the top seeds in the Championship playoffs, it needs to come with some caution. Of the 36 playoff winners in our data sample, only 12 have been top seeds.

Just 33.3% or one-third of all top seeds have subsequently gone on to win promotion to the top tier. It may be the most recurring successful seed out of the four but it is not a frequency that screams domination either.

Which could be bad news for Millwall who finished third in this season’s final Championship table. The South London outfit will hope to follow the dozen top seeds who have been successful beforehand, the three promotion rivals will hope things go the other way.

Especially when you consider that there have been four second-seed winners from the last six seasons. Second seeds have won promotion 10 times before this season’s playoffs and when you add the top two seeds' values together, it shows that 22 winners have been either first or second seeds.

If you are a first or second seed, you have a 61.1% success rate when it comes to winning the Championship playoffs and this will be music to the ears of Southampton who managed to get the better of Leeds in the 2023/24 final when finishing fourth – their same position as this season.

Which may mean the balance of power is with the Saints but that does not mean either Middlesbrough or Hull should be overlooked either. Teams that are classed as the third seed in the playoffs have a one in four chance of winning the playoffs outright (25%).

The last time a third seed bagged a ticket to the Premier League was back in 2019, when Aston Villa got the better of Fulham by two goals to one. The Cottagers would however go one better the following season when they beat Brentford as first seeds.

This means there has been an eight-year drought for the third seeds in the Championship playoffs, but at least that is not as bad as those teams that are the fourth seeds in the process. You need to go all the way back to 2010 for the last time a team this low came out on top when it mattered most.

That was the season in which Blackpool got the better of Cardiff at Wembley as a Charlie Adam-inspired side ran out 3-2 winners and with that win for Ian Holloway’s men, it was only the fifth time in which a fourth seed has won the Championship playoffs.

If you are on the bottom half of the seeding table, it is a total of 14 playoff final wins out of 36. Just over a third as a success rate,, or 38.89% in percentage terms. A percentage that both Middlesbrough and Hull will fancy their chances of improving over the course of potentially three more games.

Which is why the EFL Championship playoff makes for such an enthralling spectacle. Who has still got enough gas left in the tank? Who can get over any final day disappointment? Who can time their end-of-season sprint at just the right time? The next few weeks will have all the important answers.