GdS: Tactics, data and team-mates – the ‘strange case’ of Goncalo Ramos at Milan

By: Oliver Fisher

The Goncalo Ramos enigma continues to dominate the newspaper columns, as AC Milan try unlock their record signing.

As La Gazzetta dello Sport report, Milan fans hoped they had finally found a top-class striker in Ramos, but his three goals this season are not sufficient compared to expectations and the €70m price tag for which he arrived.

And yet, the Portuguese centre-forward is still proving to be a factor in the team’s fortunes. The reason for this lies behind statistics that the average fan might ignore, but Ruben Amorim certainly isn’t.

The coach has repeatedly emphasised how Ramos is helping the team, less so the other way around. Looking at the numbers, you can’t argue with him. Gonçalo may not be making it into the top scorers’ table, but his work is well explained by statistics that place him among the top strikers in Serie A.

Which ones? Passes (20.7 per game, first in volume among centre-forwards in the league ahead of Lazio’s Noslin) or touches (2nd), for example. But also the aerial duels won and fouls drawn (19, first among attackers) underscore the importance of his sacrifice too.

There are two considerations that don’t emerge from the statistics, but are equally important. The first concerns the movements that free up or facilitate team-mates, such as the sprint for Milan’s first goal in Genoa.

Alphadjo Cisse found himself all alone in the penalty area thanks to Ramos drawing two of the Rossoblu central defenders towards him, allowing Adrien Rabiot to easily pass to the young Italian who was in lots of space.

The second consideration concerns the pressure and coverage work, which has changed since the start of the season. In the early days, Gonçalo was the first to apply pressure up front, but in doing so, he exposed Modric to too much space to cover in front of or behind him.

Amorim therefore asked the Portuguese to instead harass the opposing playmaker, without attacking the defence in the initial possession. This move allows Luka to run less and think more during the opponent’s possession phase.

We were talking about a Milan side that is helping Ramos less than the centre-forward is helping the team, too. The former Benfica man is 19th in Serie A for shots (26) and 15th for shots on target (10).

While it’s true that the Rossoneri maintain a high standard in terms of the quality of chances created (third in the league for big chances behind Inter and Roma), it’s equally undeniable that they arrive in the final third of the pitch less often than expected. Milan are 12th for touches in the opponent’s penalty area and 12th for shots on target.

In short, Ramos sees the ball mostly where he can’t hurt the goalkeepers. Even if, in relation to goal-scoring chances, he should have scored double in the league: 4.16 xG compared to the just two scored. Still, not enough for a Milan-calibre player.