Expected Points and clinical shooting: Stats highlight worries about sustainability of Milan’s Serie A form

By: Oliver Fisher

AC Milan have collected more points than they deserved so far in the 2026-27 Serie A season, according to statistical data.

As MilanPress write, the Expected Points ranking makes for worrying reading. The metric compares the points actually earned by Serie A teams with those expected based on performances and chances created and conceded in the first 11 rounds of the league season.

The Rossoneri have earned 24 points compared to approximately 17 expected, meaning they are ‘over-performing’ by seven points. Milan are currently fourth in the table behind Lazio, Inter and Roma, but they should be a few places lower.

Inter are second with 28 actual points, but should have collected around 26, while Juventus are on 18 points earned versus the expected 21. Napoli also obtained less than the data indicated they should have, with 15 actual points compared to the approximately 19 expected.

The numbers, therefore, reveal a Milan that is particularly effective in turning its performances into tangible results. This is a positive aspect in terms of the league table, but also food for thought. Is it sustainable moving forwards?

Another interesting statistic has come from Kickest, which perhaps highlights why Ruben Amorim’s side have been able to out-perform what the data suggests.

They reveal that there are 113 players with at least 10 shots in Serie A so far in 2026-27. The top four with the best conversion rates have something in common: they play for the Diavolo.

➤ Rabiot — 41.7% (5 goals)

➤ Moreira — 40.0% (4)

➤ Cisse — 38.5% (5)

➤ Pulisic — 36.4% (4)

➤ De Bruyne — 30.0% (3)

It is reminiscent of something we published in January, when the shooting numbers under Massimiliano Allegri were similarly remarkable. As we know, a late-season collapse ended up coming.

Then there was the revelation from Sky after the Genoa game, as they looked at data per 30 minutes of possession. Milan are first in Serie A for build-up actions, but they are 20th for entries into the final third and entries into the opposition box.

Amorim’s side are 19th for percentage of touches in the attacking third and 18th in percentage of touches in the opposition box. So, Milan must get much better at generating and sustaining pressure, or the results might start to regress.