The Toughest Starts To The New Premier League Season

With a new Premier League season now just days away, each of the 20 teams will be looking to get off to the perfect start by winning their opening fixture and even though initial weekend success is always welcomed, success in isolation is perhaps not.

Although maximum points from your opening encounter should not be overlooked, failure to build on that performance will quickly become cause for concern, and this is why form across the first five games of the season provides a better indicator of early form.

While that form would have been predicted by fans in all corners of the globe just a couple of months ago when the Premier League’s 2026/27 fixture list was revealed, the task of mapping out when and where points would be earned being a known pastime for many.

At the same time, any predictions can be subject to a heavy dose of supporter bias, and although the most ardent club supporter will believe their side can pick up all 15 available points from their first five games, that is rarely the case.

Especially if a tough start to the season has been mapped out by pundits and punters alike. But before a ball has been kicked, you have to ask yourself the question: how do you quantify a tough start?

Is it just a feeling or is there something that you can quantify? If your preference is the latter, then the best way to do so is to rank each of the 20 Premier League teams from top to bottom and then average out their opposition across the first five games of the season.

For example, with Arsenal being last season’s league champions, they would earn the rank of 1. Manchester City would be number 2, their crosstown rivals Manchester United would be handed 3 and so on.

As for the promoted trio of Coventry, Ipswich and Hull, they would be given the ranks of 18, 19 and 20 respectively. The order matches that of the order in which the three clubs moved out of last season’s Championship.

With that in place, the full ranking list is as follows:

Now that we know the rankings, we can take the first 50 Premier League games of the season (each team playing five times) and calculate the average opposition rank that they will face across that quintet of outings.

An example would be if Arsenal were up against Manchester United, Brighton, Newcastle, Leeds United and Crystal Palace, the total opponent rank would be 51. Divide that by five, and you get 10.2 – that would be the Gunners’ average opponent ranking.

(lower ranking indicates tougher start)

NEW NAMES UNDER PRESSURE

With Fulham fans already suffering from the departure of both Harry Wilson and Raul Jimenez over the course of the summer, there now seems to be further reasons to be fearful when looking at the start of their new season.

The Cottagers under new manager Alvaro Arbeloa are set to have something resembling a baptism of fire in the opening weeks of the campaign as their average opposition ranking is 8.0 and it all begins with a local derby against Chelsea.

The Blues missed out on Europe last season, but they will be keen to move out the starting blocks quickly under Xabi Alonso and what better way to do so than by getting the better of your West London rivals on the opening weekend.

While the Blues are the exception to the rule when it comes to Fulham’s opening five opponents, the reason being that the other four teams that they face are all in European competition next season and this suggests little, if any, respite being made available for Fulham early on.

Then again, they are not the only team with a projected tough start to the season and another new managerial face in the Premier League is going to have his work cut out straight from the off as Bournemouth travel to Manchester City on the opening weekend.

Which means quite a tough start to your new job for German coach Marco Rose and that visit to the Etihad plays a considerable part in the Cherries being given an opposition ranking of 8.2 across their opening five games.

Not only is there a face-off with new City boss Enzo Maresca, but there is also a clash with new Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola as Bournemouth quickly welcome back the Spaniard to the Vitality Stadium in week five of the season.

Bournemouth’s 8.2 opposition ranking, just shorter than Sunderland’s 8.4 in third and although the Black Cats will look forward to their opening three games against the trio of Ipswich, Fulham and Brentford respectively, the difficulty curve then takes a steep upward tick.

Get the opening trio out of the way and then it is Arsenal and Manchester City in successive weeks; if you were mapping the opposition ranking for Sunderland’s opening three games alone it would be as high as 13, subsequent clashes with last season’s top two drive the figure down to 8.4.

UP FROM THE SECOND TIER

While of the three promoted outfits that came up from the Championship last season, it is Ipswich that has the easier of the three season starts when compared to both Coventry and Hull. The Tractor Boys have an opposition ranking of 8.6, their counterparts each on 9.4.

Gary O’Neil’s return to Premier League management sees the Portman Road outfit tasked with welcoming Sunderland on the opening weekend before subsequent clashes with Manchester United and Liverpool.

Not an ideal trio of opening games for a newly promoted side, and if no points are collected from the first nine on offer, there may be an opportunity to get off the mark against either Crystal Palace or Everton in weeks four and five of the season.

Although fellow promoted outfits Coventry and Hull have opposition rankings of 9.4 to go up against, it is still the joint-fifth easiest start to the season. Four clubs have that score attached to them; they are joined by the pair of Arsenal and Brighton.

The defending champions of the Premier League will look to open their account next Friday when they welcome last season’s Championship winners Coventry to the Emirates. After that, it is clashes with Aston Villa, Chelsea, Sunderland and Brighton that follow.

The Gunners may be derailed by missing players early on due to World Cup duties, but at least they have a slightly easier start to the season than nearest challengers Manchester City. By comparison, their average opposition ranking comes in at 9.8.

With Pep Guardiola departing, it is now down to Enzo Maresca to deal with an opening five games that include a Manchester derby in week four, but if you remove that game from the equation, games against Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Coventry and Sunderland should offer little inconvenience.

EASIER BY COMPARISON

Which then leads us to the teams that have the easiest starts to the campaign and although Aston Villa and Newcastle have largely been frustrated by PSR restrictions over the course of the summer, they have at least been given favourable opponents.

The pair have the joint-third easiest starts with an opposition ranking of 12.4. Last season’s Europa League winners Villa start the season against European qualifiers Brighton; they also take on Tottenham in week five.

The same opposition that the Magpies face in their second outing of the season but facing Spurs may come with an element of caution. Their ranking of 17 due to last season’s league position could be something of a wildcard when you consider the transformation under manager Roberto De Zerbi.

Which takes us to Liverpool and their opposition ranking of 12.8. The Merseyside men have been given the second-easiest start to the season and this will be music to the ears of new manager Andoni Iraola.

An opening weekend trip to Newcastle arguably the toughest of their first five games, which should then allow Iraola to get his feet under the table during the upcoming clashes with Nottingham Forest, Ipswich, Fulham and Bournemouth.

However, the easiest start to the campaign goes to Manchester United and this is due to their opposition ranking of 13. The aforementioned clash with City in week four the obvious pitfall; facing two promoted sides in the opening five games is the ideal antidote to that.

Michael Carrick goes into this new season as the new permanent manager of Manchester United and he will be keen to show that his efforts were not just a flash in the pan at the back end of the 2025/26 season.

Instead, he will be aiming to take United to the top of the table with the opponents that are standing in the Red Devils’ way. Hull and Ipswich in the opening weeks of the season, followed by a clash with Everton.

Three games that look winnable on paper and if that is the case, it will give further credence to the upcoming edition of the Manchester derby - especially as United got the better of City at Old Trafford last season.

Four wins from their opening four games would put United fans in dreamland and should they get the better of Fulham in week five, the reality of a promising campaign is there on paper. Then again, as we all know, the Premier League has a habit of throwing the formbook out of the window.