The Tightest Premier League Title Races: Man City and Arsenal Set for Grandstand Finish
Tom Hancock
Manchester City have moved above Arsenal to go top of the Premier League for the first time since August, setting the stage for thrilling final five games of the season.
Man City edged ahead of their title rivals on goals scored thanks to a 1-0 over Burnley on Wednesday, having beaten the Gunners 2-1 three days earlier.
As things stand, we’re looking at one of the tightest title races in Premier League history – and both sides have been involved in similar battles before…
What Have Been the Tightest Premier League Title Races?
Ominously for Arsenal, City have won the last three title races in which the title has been decided by one point or goal difference.
City won the title by the narrowest margin in Premier League history back in the 2011/12 season, Sergio Aguero’s unforgettable late winner against QPR on the final day seeing Roberto Mancini’s side pip local rivals Manchester United on goal difference – by eight goals, to be exact.
Since then, City have won the title twice by a single point under Pep Guardiola – with Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool the runners-up on both occasions.
City were crowned champions with 98 points in 2018/19 – a record at the time and 93 points in 2021/22.
The Premier League title has been won by a single point on four other occasions, with Arsenal beating Man United to their first crown in 1997/98 by that margin.
Here are the tightest title races in Premier League history:
Season | Champions | Runners-up | Winning Margin |
2011/12 | Manchester City | Manchester United | Goal difference |
1994/95 | Blackburn Rovers | Manchester United | 1 point |
1997/98 | Arsenal | Manchester United | 1 point |
1998/99 | Manchester United | Arsenal | 1 point |
2009/10 | Chelsea | Manchester United | 1 point |
2018/19 | Manchester City | Liverpool | 1 point |
2021/22 | Manchester City | Liverpool | 1 point |
2007/08 | Manchester United | Chelsea | 2 points |
2013/14 | Manchester City | Liverpool | 2 points |
2021/22 | Manchester City | Arsenal | 2 points |
What If Arsenal and Man City Are Level on Points at the End of the Season?
Should Arsenal and City finish the season level on points, the first means of separating them will be goal difference.
If their goal differences are the same – as was the case in 2023/24 – goals scored will be the next determining factor. Only once in English top-flight history has the title been decided on goals scored – and the champions on that occasion were Arsenal, Michael Thomas’ stoppage-time strike at Anfield famously denying Liverpool in the final game of the 1988/89 First Division season.
In the event that Arsenal and City’s goal differences and total goals scored are the same, it comes down to their head-to-head record – and with City taking four points from the sides’ two Premier League meetings this term to Arsenal’s one, City would win that particular tiebreaker.
