With the new Premier League season now in full swing, we can already see the cream of the crop rise to the top, and with Arsenal and Manchester City boasting perfect records, it looks like the opening furlong of a two-horse title race.
Four games in and the Premier League table has already started to shape our perception of which teams are flying, which are struggling and which might not be quite what their position suggests. But points alone only tell part of the story, and how much of that perception is steeped in reality?
Which is where the Reality Index comes in.
Points tell us how much a team has collected, while goal difference gives us some indication of how convincingly they have collected them. By combining the two, we can create an alternative view of the Premier League table and see which teams are perhaps being flattered by their position.
There are no complicated algorithms or weighted averages involved. The Reality Index is simply a team's points total plus its goal difference. It is not designed to replace the league table, but to offer another way of looking at it.
After all, four games into a new season, perception can change quickly. The Reality Index gives us a way of testing whether the numbers back up that perception, and this is how things look after each side has played a quartet of fixtures each:
Team | Pts | GD | Index |
Arsenal | 12 | 7 | 19 |
Manchester City | 12 | 6 | 18 |
Brighton | 7 | 8 | 15 |
Leeds | 8 | 4 | 12 |
Hull | 8 | 3 | 11 |
Brentford | 6 | 3 | 9 |
Chelsea | 7 | 1 | 8 |
Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 8 |
Everton | 6 | 2 | 8 |
Nottingham Forest | 5 | 0 | 5 |
Newcastle | 5 | -1 | 4 |
Manchester United | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Ipswich | 6 | -3 | 3 |
Sunderland | 4 | -2 | 2 |
Bournemouth | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Crystal Palace | 3 | -5 | -2 |
Fulham | 1 | -3 | -2 |
Tottenham | 2 | -5 | -3 |
Aston Villa | 1 | -6 | -5 |
Coventry | 0 | -10 | -10 |
Although there is no difference between Arsenal and Manchester City in terms of league points at present, it is last season’s defending champions who just have the edge when it comes to topping the Reality Index.
Mikel Arteta’s men are building on their base of 12 points with a slightly stronger goal difference than that of their nearest rivals, and with the North London outfit commanding a Reality Index score of 19, it is Manchester City who find themselves in second with a Reality Index of 18.
This indicates that art is imitating life as far as the top two are concerned, but when you look past the Premier League’s thoroughbreds, this is where the perception of reality starts to become slightly more muddled.
SEAGULLS FLYING HIGH
A perfect example would be Brighton sitting third in the Reality Index table – two places better off than their current standing in the Premier League. The Seagulls have a Reality Index score of 15, largely boosted by their impressive ability in front of goal.
Fabian Hurzeler’s men have scored 13 goals in just four league outings, an average of 3.25 per game and although they were edged out by Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and held by Leeds at The Amex, when the East Sussex outfit do win, they do so by rather impressive margins.
A statement which is reinforced by their 4-0 and 5-0 wins over Aston Villa and Coventry respectively, and with the Seagulls possessing the best goal difference in the division with +8, their solid start may just be underestimated in terms of its overall strength.
MARCHING ON TOGETHER
The fact that Brighton sit third in the Reality Index means that Leeds are one place worse off when compared to their current position in the Premier League, and after their impressive 4-1 home win over Newcastle on Monday, the Elland Road outfit are still unbeaten this season.
Daniel Farke’s men have a Reality Index score of 12, as their base of eight points is enhanced by a positive goal difference of +4. They may have only scored seven times this season, but with their defence conceding just three at the other end, it is certainly making life a lot easier in this part of West Yorkshire.
Rounding out the top five are Hull, and with the promoted outfit only conceding their first goals of the season at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, the Tigers currently have a Reality Index of 11 to their name. They may have only scored five times this season, but it is still good enough for a base of eight points.
THE TRACTOR BOYS
Which leads us to one of the other three promoted sides that came up from the Championship and although Ipswich currently sit 10th in the Premier League, the Reality Index believes that there is a rather different perception coming out of Portman Road.
Last season’s Championship runners-up have won the winnable games early on after getting the better of both Sunderland and Crystal Palace in the first four weeks of the season, but they have also lost to the pair of Manchester United and Liverpool.
On first-hand evidence, six points from 12 is not to be sniffed at, especially when being collected by a promoted outfit. On the other hand, Ipswich are the biggest negative movers in our Reality Index, as they currently sit 13th – three places worse off than in the Premier League.
This is largely due to conceding ten goals already this season when compared to scoring seven. This minus three figure then reduces their Reality Index to 3, and for this reason, their bright start may actually be slightly dimmer than first thought.
TWO OF THE SIX
The same could also be said of Chelsea, as although they find themselves sitting sixth in the Premier League table, the Reality Index has slightly different ideas regarding how the Blues have performed under new boss Xabi Alonso.
They may have scored 10 goals this season, but their attacking efforts have been largely undermined by the leaks that they are showing in defence and with the Blues conceding nine at the other end, there is just a +1 goal difference to add to a base of seven points.
This gives Chelsea a Reality Index score of 8, and this sees them sit one place worse off than their Premier League position. That reality standing of seventh sees them sit above both Liverpool and Everton, who also have the same Reality Index score, but the Merseyside pair are edged out due to fewer league points.
However, it is not Liverpool that are the other big six member in focus, and although Manchester United may have only picked up four points from the first 12 on offer, the picture is not as gloomy as first thought under Michael Carrick.
The Red Devils may sit 13th in the Premier League table, but the Reality Index has instead rewarded them with 11th. Those four league points are slightly enhanced by the fact that United have a neutral goal difference of 0.
Nothing to add to their league points for the Reality Index score, but at the same time, nothing to take away either and for this reason, United have managed to pick up a two-position lift when comparing the two metrics.
Not the best start for United by any stretch and especially when you consider their opening three fixtures, but there is something for their supporters to cling onto, even if they are still smarting from the manner of their recent derby day defeat.
THE DROP ZONE
At the bottom end of the Reality Index, there is no escaping just how bad a start it has been for Coventry. Frank Lampard’s side has yet to collect a Premier League point since their return to the top tier; they are still searching for a goal.
To make matters worse, the Sky Blues have a negative goal difference of -10; 50% of that came at the hands of Brighton after their emphatic win at the weekend, and it subsequently gives Coventry a Reality Index score of -10.
-5 worse than that of Aston Villa, who, like Coventry, are still looking for their first win of the season but at least Unai Emery’s men can take solace in finding their first goal of the weekend – even if it was in defeat to Nottingham Forest last Saturday.
Aston Villa travel to Tottenham this Saturday, and it is they who possess the final position in the Reality Index’s bottom three. Like Coventry, Spurs are still without a Premier League goal this season but do at least have two points to their name.
Two successive draws are not doing enough to eat into the successive defeats to Brentford and Newcastle, and therefore, the North London outfit has a Reality Index score of -3. This sees them one place worse off than their current Premier League position, with Fulham serving as the main beneficiaries of Spurs' woe.
Of course, just four weeks of the new season is far too early to draw any definitive conclusions about where the Premier League table will finish, but that is not really the point of the Reality Index.
Instead, it gives us another way of looking at the early-season standings and, in some cases, challenges the perception created by the table itself. Brighton's position perhaps understates the strength of their start, while Ipswich's six points arguably make theirs look better than it actually is.
As the season progresses, the numbers will change, the league table will evolve, and perceptions will shift. The Reality Index will therefore be revisited throughout the campaign to see which teams continue to live up to the reality behind their results.
