Man Utd January plan branded ‘depressing’ – but there is a method to the madness

Manchester United’s January shortlist is becoming increasingly clear, with rumours building over who the Old Trafford side will try to sign when the transfer window opens.

There are three primary targets to help bolster what is an ailing defence, according to the Daily Mail, with Nathan Collins and Calvin Bassey joining long-time target Jarrad Branthwaite on the list of targets.

It’s a group of players that has not met with universal approval in the fanbase. Influencer Mark Goldbridge, for example, described the trio as being of a “depressing standard”. But what could United do in order to sign the type of player who would meet with a more positive response?

United’s biggest issue as they search for a new central defender is the market they are buying in is difficult – and not just because it’s January. Selling clubs know that the Red Devils are desperate to sign and inevitably this leads to prices being driven up.

Ineos, meanwhile, have been seeking to cut costs at Old Trafford, most notably with regard to the wage bill. They also do not have too much room to work with due to Financial Fair Play (FFP).

None of this makes this an ideal time for Man Utd to act. But they need to.

The three players the Red Devils have on their shortlist have Estimated Transfer Values (ETV) worth between €27m (Bassey) at the lower end, and €50m (Branthwaite) at the top end.

Everton reportedly installed a release clause worth €83.7m (£70m) in Branthwaite’s new contract in 2025 and are likely to hold out for that fee. The Toffees know that United are unlikely to match that figure, hence the broadening of their search.

Instead, the Manchester giants are likely to look at spending something more like the €50m that corresponds with Branthwaite’s ETV. This is, no doubt, where they hope Collins and Bassry become options.

With United apparently seeking to spend in the region of €50m, are there other realistic and in-form players who could be targeted?

Data analytics firm SciSports can provide the answer. This is done by searching for players with an ETV of a maximum of €55m and with a SciSkill of 98.0 or above. This figure, which is calculated with hundreds of in-game data points, is very slightly higher than that of "depressing" options Bassey and Collins.

Only four players emerge: Pau Torres of Aston Villa, Ilya Zabaryni of PSG, Nico Schlotterbeck of Borussia Dortmund and Jacobo Ramon of Como.

The hitch is that each of these players looks totally inaccessible in January. It has already been reported that Ramon is of interest to United, but Real Madrid hold the cards for the Spanish centre-back.

And this is where Collins comes in.

While he is not one of the Premier League’s most acclaimed defenders, he has the qualities to succeed at the highest level, which is exactly where Jason Wilcox, Man Utd’s sporting director, believes the rapid central defender can play.

Indeed, SciSports even indicates that Collins is better than any other centre-back on Man Utd’s books currently. He has a higher SciSkill – a score given to players based on hundreds of in-game statistics – than the likes of Matthijs de Ligt, Lisandro Martinez, Leny Yoro and Harry Maguire. Only Yoro has a higher potential ceiling.

The experts believe that Collins even has what it takes to become a key player at United in the future.

Obviously, his speed is a major asset, but there is far more to the Leixlip-born star’s game than this: he’s strong in the air, wins a terrific amount of ball in his own box and is an expert shot blocker.

Collins is also identified by SciSports as excellent when it comes to stalling counterattacks, which is an important quality in the modern game, so much of which is played in transition.

Beyond Collins possessing the qualities to become a Manchester United player, how does his profile fit into the club’s transfer policy?

Very well on the whole.

He checks a big box in terms of Premier League experience, which mirrors that of Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha – United’s two most successful recruits from last term.

Indeed, if this deal is struck, he will follow Mbeumo from Brentford to Man Utd. This history suggests this is the type of move that the Red Devils will be pursuing.

Both Mbeumo and Cunha were a little older than Collins, yet at 24 he has shown he has excellent leadership skills by graduating to become Brentford’s captain. Maturity and mentality, then, are not a problem.

If United can get him at a price that suits both clubs, it’s a deal that can work. Collins is ready for a step up, and when it arrives, it shouldn’t come as a shock.

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