Champions League: Opta predictions place Arsenal ahead of Barcelona and Real Madrid
The Opta network has revealed its first predictions for the UEFA Champions League in the new season, and they carry worrying indicators for the Spanish clubs ahead of next Tuesday's league phase.
According to figures highlighted by the Spanish newspaper "Marca", Spain could lose two of its five representatives early. The supercomputer predicts Real Betis and Villarreal will crash out of the league phase, while Atlético Madrid would scrape into 22nd among the 24 teams that qualify for the knockout rounds.
Land in that predicted spot and Atlético face the knockout play-off, a route that could throw a heavyweight opponent in their path before the round of 16.
The picture looks brighter for Real Madrid and Barcelona. The computer has Barcelona finishing fourth and Madrid seventh in the league phase, sending both straight through to the round of 16 without a play-off.
Barcelona also edge Real Madrid in the race to the final, with the model giving them a 14.41% chance against 10.39% for the royal team.
Bayern and Arsenal on top
Opta's predictions place eight teams in the top spots of the league phase: Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Manchester City, Barcelona, Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Inter Milan, in that order.
Among the title contenders, Arsenal and Bayern Munich lead the way. The English side hold a 21.18% chance of lifting the cup, ahead of the German club on 19.90%.
Manchester City sit third on 12.03%. Barcelona top the Spanish clubs for title chances with 6.97%, followed by Real Madrid on 5.13%.
Atlético Madrid, meanwhile, have their odds pegged at just 0.60%, with Villarreal on 0.26% and Real Betis on 0.17%.
Paris Saint-Germain far from a historic achievement
Paris Saint-Germain fare no better in Opta's numbers. The holders in each of the past two editions are chasing a third straight title in the competition.
The model puts the French side's chances of that historic feat at no more than 7.73%, despite their bid to prolong their European dominance.
Real Madrid remain the only team in Champions League history to win the title three times in a row, the very achievement Paris Saint-Germain are chasing this season.
