Arsenal, Brighton and Man City: Can the Gunners Pull Clear by December?
When we compared Arsenal and Manchester City’s next five fixtures three weeks ago, the two sides were level on 21 points and City looked to have the kinder run. Two games later, Arsenal have taken six points, City haven’t taken any and Brighton are the ones closest to us.
Arsenal lead with 27 points, five ahead of Brighton and six clear of City. And with City still to come to the Emirates, the Gunners have a chance to widen both gaps in early December.
Brighton Have Changed the Title Race Conversation
Arsenal won 1-0 at Liverpool and beat Hull City by the same score. City lost 1-0 at home to Brighton and then 3-1 at Nottingham Forest, while Brighton backed up their win at the Etihad by beating Brentford 2-0.
Brighton have scored 26 league goals to Arsenal’s 15 and have the best goal difference of the three. They’re not just keeping City’s seat warm. They’ve very much earned their place in this conversation.
Arsenal Can Put Real Daylight Between Themselves and City
The Premier League’s updated fixture list has City visiting the Emirates on Sunday 29 November at 4.30pm, with all three clubs playing again on Wednesday 2 December.
St James’ Park looked like one of the tougher stops in our original comparison, but Newcastle are 12th with three wins from ten. They lost Sandro Tonali to Spurs and their captain Bruno Guimarães to Arsenal in the summer. It’s still an away game, but on current form I’d back us to win it.
| Club | 21–22 November | 29 November | 2 December | Predicted points gained |
| Arsenal | Newcastle 0-2 Arsenal | Arsenal 2-1 Man City | Brentford 1-2 Arsenal | 9 |
| Brighton | Hull City 0-2 Brighton | Brighton 2-1 Newcastle | Bournemouth 1-1 Brighton | 7 |
| Man City | Man City 2-0 Fulham | Arsenal 2-1 Man City | Man City 3-1 Leeds | 6 |
The Emirates showdown is still the biggest game of the run. If Arsenal win at Newcastle and City beat Fulham, we’ll go into it six points ahead of City. Beat them and the gap goes to nine. Lose and it’s down to three. And if Brighton win their first two, they’ll be just two points behind Arsenal before we kick off against City. And, I’m not convinced they’ll draw away to Bournemouth the following week – an away win is probably more likely, given their current form.
Our early-December projection for the current top three
| Club | Points now | Predicted points after 13 games |
| Arsenal | 27 | 36 |
| Brighton | 22 | 29 |
| Man City | 21 | 27 |
Liverpool are fourth on 18 points, but they could well bring themselves back into the conversation by early December. Three wins would take them to 27, which on these predictions would put them level with City and just two points behind Brighton.
If Manchester City were to be expelled from the Premier League this season, Brighton and Liverpool could emerge as Arsenal’s biggest title rivals. But with City’s appeal still to be resolved, we can’t count them out of the race.
